ECB Holds Rates Steady, Offers No Clues on Next Move

The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)
The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)
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ECB Holds Rates Steady, Offers No Clues on Next Move

The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)
The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)

The European Central Bank warned Thursday a stronger euro could push inflation down too far after recent gains in the single currency, but sought to downplay any immediate threat to the eurozone economy.

As expected, the central bank for the 21-nation single-currency area kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at two percent, where it has been since June last year.

ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed the eurozone economy, which has been picking up speed recently, remained "resilient" and officials were confident inflation would settle around the central bank's two-percent target.

But much attention at her press conference focused on the recent gains of the euro, which jumped above the $1.20 threshold last week as the dollar weakened on renewed worries about US economic policy under President Donald Trump.

Combined with news that inflation had dropped below the ECB's target in January, speculation had mounted that the central bank might start mulling if and when to cut rates.

Lagarde made a nod to these concerns, warning that "a stronger euro could bring inflation down beyond current expectations", and noted the issue had been discussed by ECB officials at Thursday's meeting.

A stronger currency makes imports cheaper, which tends to push inflation down -- potentially leading consumers to delay purchases, with negative ripple effects across the economy.

A strong euro can also weigh on the eurozone's crucial exporters, particularly Germany, as it makes the cost of companies' goods pricier overseas.

But despite the gains last week, Lagarde pointed out that the euro had been steadily strengthening against the dollar since shortly after Trump took power last year.

And the current exchange rate was "very much in line with the overall average" since the euro was introduced, she stressed.

According to AFP, she also reiterated that the ECB feels it is in a "good place" -- phrasing which has been taken to mean the central bank is happy with the current level of rates.

The euro was barely changed against the dollar after Thursday's meeting at $1.18.

However, Frederik Ducrozet, an economist at Pictet Wealth Management, said some of the central bank's language appeared to signal "the ECB's growing discomfort with regard to the stronger euro".

Lagarde's comments indicate "that further currency appreciation would bring us closer to a pain threshold", he added.

As usual, the ECB chief gave no signal about the central bank's next move on rates.

But, given the movements in currencies and inflation, some analysts are now raising their bets on rate cuts in the second half of the year.

The Bank of England also left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday, at 3.75 percent, while cutting its forecasts for UK growth this year and next.

Lagarde also said the global environment remained "challenging".

"The outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions," she said.

Trump's volatile trade policies in particular have unnerved Europe.

There was another flare-up last month when Trump threatened to hit eight European countries with new tariffs over their opposition to his desire to annex Greenland, but he later climbed down.

Central bankers around the world have been especially worried by Trump's targeting of US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, whom he has criticized for not cutting rates faster.

On Thursday however Lagarde welcomed Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh, a former Fed official, to be the next chief of the US central bank, a move that has broadly reassured markets.

"We go back a long way and I very much welcome (the) announcement of his appointment," said Lagarde.



Syrian Central Bank Allows Dealings With Global Electronic Payment Companies

Key benefits include allowing Syrians entering the country to use their international bank cards domestically (X).
Key benefits include allowing Syrians entering the country to use their international bank cards domestically (X).
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Syrian Central Bank Allows Dealings With Global Electronic Payment Companies

Key benefits include allowing Syrians entering the country to use their international bank cards domestically (X).
Key benefits include allowing Syrians entering the country to use their international bank cards domestically (X).

The Central Bank of Syria on Monday issued a decision allowing banks and local electronic payment companies to work with global electronic payment companies such as Visa and Mastercard, in a move seen as a step toward modernizing financial infrastructure and expanding digital inclusion.

Central Bank Governor Abdulkader Husrieh said in a statement the decision marks a strategic shift toward a more advanced digital economy and will help facilitate money transfers and payment transactions for Syrians both inside the country and abroad.

He added that the move opens the door to a new phase in the development of electronic payment systems and strengthens Syria’s integration into the global financial system after years of reliance on limited, traditional tools.

Husrieh said the decision enables banks and local electronic payment providers to broaden their services with more advanced and secure payment solutions for individuals and businesses.

Key benefits include allowing Syrians entering the country to use their international bank cards domestically, enabling wider use of Syrian-issued cards abroad, expanding the adoption of electronic payments, reducing reliance on cash, improving user experience, supporting e-commerce and startups, and enhancing the security and reliability of financial transactions.

The governor added that cooperation with global electronic payment companies will help transfer expertise and modern technologies to the local market, improving the efficiency and competitiveness of the financial sector.

The central bank said it continues to implement a package of reforms aimed at rebuilding financial institutions and strengthening monetary policy tools, alongside upgrading electronic payment systems and expanding the digitalization of banking services, in a bid to restore international financial connectivity and create a more efficient and transparent environment to support economic recovery.


Gold Eases as Inflation Jitters, Iran War Cloud US Rate Outlook

AFP: A photo shows gold bangles and necklaces for sale at a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul
AFP: A photo shows gold bangles and necklaces for sale at a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul
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Gold Eases as Inflation Jitters, Iran War Cloud US Rate Outlook

AFP: A photo shows gold bangles and necklaces for sale at a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul
AFP: A photo shows gold bangles and necklaces for sale at a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul

Gold prices nudged lower in thin trade on Monday, weighed down by inflation worries that clouded the US monetary policy outlook, while markets awaited developments in US-Iran peace negotiations.

Spot gold was down 0.5% at $4,588.71 per ounce, as of 0655 GMT. US gold futures for June delivery fell 0.9% to $4,600.60.

Markets in China, Japan and the UK are closed for holidays.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell closed out eight years as head of the US central bank last Wednesday with interest rates on hold and rising concern about inflation, Reuters reported.

"Gold is still feeling the lingering effects of last week's hawkish Fed messaging, particularly the notable dissenting voices pushing back against further easing," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

Federal Reserve officials, who dissented against the policy statement last week, said the oil price shock from the Iran war means the US Fed should be clear it can no longer lean towards interest rate cuts, with a rise in borrowing costs possible in the future.

Increasing oil prices could encourage central banks to hold interest rates higher for longer, which would pressure non-yielding assets such as gold.

Oil prices eased but held above $100 a barrel, with the lack of clarity around a potential US-Iran peace deal remaining in focus.

President Donald Trump said the United States would start helping to free ships stranded in the Gulf by the US-Israeli war on Iran from Monday, as a tanker reported being hit by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian state media reported that Washington conveyed its response to Iran's 14-point proposal via Pakistan, and that Tehran was now reviewing it.

"We see gold largely trading in a $4,400-$5,500 range by year-end. The upper end of that range would require a durable reduction in Middle East tensions and some easing of inflation pressures, while persistent high oil prices would keep the metal toward the lower half of the range," Waterer added.

Spot silver fell 0.6% to $74.91 per ounce, platinum held steady at $1,989, and palladium was down 0.4% at $1,519.78.


Global LNG Exports Fall to Two-Year Low

Maritime tracking data indicates that global LNG shipments decreased to 33 million tons last month (X)
Maritime tracking data indicates that global LNG shipments decreased to 33 million tons last month (X)
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Global LNG Exports Fall to Two-Year Low

Maritime tracking data indicates that global LNG shipments decreased to 33 million tons last month (X)
Maritime tracking data indicates that global LNG shipments decreased to 33 million tons last month (X)

Global exports of liquefied natural gas fell to the lowest in almost two years in April, as the war in the Middle East disrupted flows of the super-chilled fuel through the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported.

Shipments declined to about 33 million tons, the lowest level since May 2024, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

The drop came after Qatar — the second-largest exporter last year — halted production following strikes on the world’s biggest plant by Iran in March, with the damage set to take years to repair.

Despite the ceasefire in the war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies pass, remains closed. Since the start of the conflict, only one LNG tanker has transited the strait.

Nevertheless, lost volumes have been partially offset by new production elsewhere in the world. According to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, April shipments were down only 7 percent from the previous year, suggesting that increased output from suppliers, including the United States and Canada, has partially compensated for the reduced volumes from Qatar.

In the United States, the massive Golden Pass LNG terminal shipped its first cargo last month. Qatar also delivered some volumes to Kuwait, which can export them without transiting the Strait.