ECB Holds Rates Steady, Offers No Clues on Next Move

The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)
The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)
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ECB Holds Rates Steady, Offers No Clues on Next Move

The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)
The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)

The European Central Bank warned Thursday a stronger euro could push inflation down too far after recent gains in the single currency, but sought to downplay any immediate threat to the eurozone economy.

As expected, the central bank for the 21-nation single-currency area kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at two percent, where it has been since June last year.

ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed the eurozone economy, which has been picking up speed recently, remained "resilient" and officials were confident inflation would settle around the central bank's two-percent target.

But much attention at her press conference focused on the recent gains of the euro, which jumped above the $1.20 threshold last week as the dollar weakened on renewed worries about US economic policy under President Donald Trump.

Combined with news that inflation had dropped below the ECB's target in January, speculation had mounted that the central bank might start mulling if and when to cut rates.

Lagarde made a nod to these concerns, warning that "a stronger euro could bring inflation down beyond current expectations", and noted the issue had been discussed by ECB officials at Thursday's meeting.

A stronger currency makes imports cheaper, which tends to push inflation down -- potentially leading consumers to delay purchases, with negative ripple effects across the economy.

A strong euro can also weigh on the eurozone's crucial exporters, particularly Germany, as it makes the cost of companies' goods pricier overseas.

But despite the gains last week, Lagarde pointed out that the euro had been steadily strengthening against the dollar since shortly after Trump took power last year.

And the current exchange rate was "very much in line with the overall average" since the euro was introduced, she stressed.

According to AFP, she also reiterated that the ECB feels it is in a "good place" -- phrasing which has been taken to mean the central bank is happy with the current level of rates.

The euro was barely changed against the dollar after Thursday's meeting at $1.18.

However, Frederik Ducrozet, an economist at Pictet Wealth Management, said some of the central bank's language appeared to signal "the ECB's growing discomfort with regard to the stronger euro".

Lagarde's comments indicate "that further currency appreciation would bring us closer to a pain threshold", he added.

As usual, the ECB chief gave no signal about the central bank's next move on rates.

But, given the movements in currencies and inflation, some analysts are now raising their bets on rate cuts in the second half of the year.

The Bank of England also left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday, at 3.75 percent, while cutting its forecasts for UK growth this year and next.

Lagarde also said the global environment remained "challenging".

"The outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions," she said.

Trump's volatile trade policies in particular have unnerved Europe.

There was another flare-up last month when Trump threatened to hit eight European countries with new tariffs over their opposition to his desire to annex Greenland, but he later climbed down.

Central bankers around the world have been especially worried by Trump's targeting of US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, whom he has criticized for not cutting rates faster.

On Thursday however Lagarde welcomed Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh, a former Fed official, to be the next chief of the US central bank, a move that has broadly reassured markets.

"We go back a long way and I very much welcome (the) announcement of his appointment," said Lagarde.



IEA: The Age of Electricity is Coming, We Will Still Use Oil and Natural Gas

FILE PHOTO: A view of the logo of the International Energy Agency in Paris, France, December 15, 2023. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the logo of the International Energy Agency in Paris, France, December 15, 2023. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo
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IEA: The Age of Electricity is Coming, We Will Still Use Oil and Natural Gas

FILE PHOTO: A view of the logo of the International Energy Agency in Paris, France, December 15, 2023. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the logo of the International Energy Agency in Paris, France, December 15, 2023. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo

The concentration of a small number of countries in clean energy supply chains is an emerging challenge for Southeast Asian countries, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Tuesday, amid fast-rising power demand in the region.

"The age of electricity is coming. We will still use oil, still use natural gas including LNG, but electricity demand is growing very strongly," Birol told delegates at the Singapore International Energy Week conference.

Birol did not identify the countries dominating clean energy supplies, but China is by far the largest global supplier of renewable energy equipment, from solar panels ⁠to wind turbines, electric ⁠vehicles and batteries.

Electricity demand in ASEAN countries is rising at twice the pace of overall energy consumption, driven by industrial electrification, air-conditioning needs, electric vehicles and data centers, he said.

Southeast Asian nations have emerged as key drivers of China's clean-energy export boom, splashing out over $20 billion on Chinese-made clean-tech products so far in 2026, according ⁠to energy think tank Ember.

Birol also warned that geopolitical tensions have become an increasingly dominant force in global energy markets.

"In my professional life, I have never, never ever seen the dark and long shadow of geopolitics dominating the energy sector in such a way," Reuters quoted him as saying. "I can only imagine that the role of geopolitics will be much more pronounced, and this means energy security is going to become even more important than it is today."

Birol said the Middle East war has triggered fundamental changes in global energy consumption patterns, ⁠spurring growth in ⁠solar, coal and nuclear power as well as electric vehicle adoption.

"I see in the last eight months very strong growth of electric car sales," he said, adding that global electric vehicle sales outside China had risen 60% above previous trends over the period because of the conflict.

Consumption of alternative energy sources has increased as diesel prices have jumped about 200% and LNG prices have risen 250% from pre-war levels, according to Birol.

He said on Monday at the same conference that he does not expect energy markets in 2027 to return to where they were before the US-Israeli war on Iran began.


Cyprus Seals $1.8 Bn Deal to Develop First Commercial Gas Project

The Cypriot Cronos field in the Mediterranean is being developed by a joint venture between operator Eni and TotalEnergies (X)
The Cypriot Cronos field in the Mediterranean is being developed by a joint venture between operator Eni and TotalEnergies (X)
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Cyprus Seals $1.8 Bn Deal to Develop First Commercial Gas Project

The Cypriot Cronos field in the Mediterranean is being developed by a joint venture between operator Eni and TotalEnergies (X)
The Cypriot Cronos field in the Mediterranean is being developed by a joint venture between operator Eni and TotalEnergies (X)

Cyprus signed contracts worth $1.8 billion with Italian energy provider Eni on Monday to develop the Mediterranean island nation's first commercial gas project, with production slated for 2028 on the project in partnership with France's TotalEnergies.

European countries have stepped up efforts to use domestic energy resources with the Ukraine and Iran wars roiling global energy markets and supply in recent years.

The agreements to develop the field in Cyprus' exclusive economic zone cover engineering, construction, installation and drilling work, allowing natural gas to be transported to Egypt for processing and liquefaction before delivery mainly to European markets.

"Eni has signed the main engineering, procurement, construction and drilling contracts for the development of the Cronos Project, marking the start of the project's execution phase and a key milestone towards the monetization of Cyprus' first gas development," AFP quoted the Italian firm as saying in a statement.

"As Eni's first development project in Cyprus and the country's first hydrocarbon development, Cronos represents a strategic milestone."

Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides in a statement hailed the agreement as a "decisive step towards exploiting our country's natural wealth.”

He said the contracts for the "first commercial exploitation of Cypriot natural gas" were worth up to $1.8 bn.

"It represents a strong vote of confidence in our country's energy prospects with significant geopolitical and economic implications," he added.

Cypriot Energy Minister Michalis Damianos said the project marked Cyprus' transition from offshore exploration and discoveries to developing and producing its gas reserves.

Kronos is estimated to contain more than three trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

Existing Egyptian infrastructure will be used, including facilities linked to the large Zohr gas field, with the gas to be liquefied at the Damietta terminal for export.

Using existing infrastructure is expected to reduce costs and accelerate the route to market, while deepening energy cooperation between Cyprus and Egypt.

"A regional value chain is being created that connects Cyprus's resources, Egypt's infrastructure and European demand," said Damianos.

Cyprus has discovered offshore gas but has not yet brought a field into commercial production.

Kronos is seen as a key test of its ability to turn those discoveries into exports.

Eni and Total hold the majority of exploration blocks -- seven of 13 south of the island -- licensed by the Cyprus government.

The eastern Mediterranean has become an energy hot spot, with significant natural gas finds off Israel and Egypt.


HSBC Shares Tumble 6% after Third-quarter Revenue Disappoints, Wealth Growth Slows

People alight from a tram outside the HSBC bank headquarters in Hong Kong on October 27, 2026, ahead of the bank's third quarter results announcement. (Photo by Peter PARKS / AFP)
People alight from a tram outside the HSBC bank headquarters in Hong Kong on October 27, 2026, ahead of the bank's third quarter results announcement. (Photo by Peter PARKS / AFP)
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HSBC Shares Tumble 6% after Third-quarter Revenue Disappoints, Wealth Growth Slows

People alight from a tram outside the HSBC bank headquarters in Hong Kong on October 27, 2026, ahead of the bank's third quarter results announcement. (Photo by Peter PARKS / AFP)
People alight from a tram outside the HSBC bank headquarters in Hong Kong on October 27, 2026, ahead of the bank's third quarter results announcement. (Photo by Peter PARKS / AFP)

HSBC's shares slid 6% on Tuesday after revenue undershot estimates and growth at its wealth business slowed, highlighting the challenge big banks face to sustain recent record profits.

Europe's largest bank reported a 32% surge in pretax profit to $9.6 billion for the July-September quarter, in line with estimates. But investors and analysts focused on the lack of upgrades to the bank's performance guidance and underwhelming third-quarter revenue of $18.6 billion against forecasts for $19 billion.

The drop in the bank's shares underscores how recent strong results from European lenders have increased investor expectations for performance, even as the impact of the Iran war on inflation and interest rates has created a tough environment for banks. The shares remain up 9% for the year to ⁠date.

HSBC also launched ⁠a share buyback of up to $1 billion, the same amount as the previous quarter and a move that had boosted shares in previous reporting periods but is now largely expected by investors.

"There is sometimes a market expectation that we upgrade guidance or targets," CFO Pam Kaur told reporters on a conference call when asked about the share drop.

According to Reuters, analysts noted that the bank's net interest income slightly missed expectations, while fee income from its key wealth growth pillar was steady but ⁠unspectacular.

Escalating deposit competition in Hong Kong and the UK, HSBC's two core markets, are expected to push up interest expenses, they said. Time deposits in the bank's Hong Kong portfolio rose two percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 38%, but Jefferies analysts noted that the shift to chase higher deposits by offering higher interest rates is expected to erode margins.

Revenue for HSBC's wealth division was flat at $2.7 billion. That compared with 15% and 23% year-on-year revenue growth in the first two quarters.

The performance of HSBC's wealth business is under particular scrutiny because the British bank, like its peers, is focusing growth on fee-generating businesses such as wealth management as lending comes under pressure from falling interest rates.

Analysts warned that Asia-focused banks are bracing for a slowdown in wealth momentum ⁠following robust gains driven ⁠by Chinese capital inflows.

Kaur said on the call that China's tightening of wealth flows has prompted clients to shift from other banks in Hong Kong to HSBC.

"We picked up more business."

HSBC benefited from the absence of legal provisions booked in the same quarter a year earlier. It also said expected credit losses tumbled 17% to $800 million, thanks to a reduction in charges linked to Hong Kong's real estate sector as well as its UK and Mexican wealth businesses.

British banks' strong recent results have prompted calls from trade unions and activist groups for tax hikes on the sector in finance minister John Healey's first budget, due on Wednesday.

Bank bosses have lobbied hard to avoid such an increase in sector levies, arguing it would curb lending and make Britain less competitive.

HSBC announced an interim dividend of $0.1 per share, the same as the previous quarter.