‘AlUla Manifesto’ Ends Era of ‘Economic Dependency’

Group photo of participants at the Conference for Emerging Market Economies held in AlUla. X
Group photo of participants at the Conference for Emerging Market Economies held in AlUla. X
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‘AlUla Manifesto’ Ends Era of ‘Economic Dependency’

Group photo of participants at the Conference for Emerging Market Economies held in AlUla. X
Group photo of participants at the Conference for Emerging Market Economies held in AlUla. X

A joint statement issued by Mohammed Aljadaan, the Saudi Minister of Finance, and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva following the second annual Conference for Emerging Market Economies held in AlUla could be described as the “AlUla Manifesto.”

A manifesto is a public, written declaration of intentions, and acts as a guide for action. At the heart of AlUla, this statement was not merely words; it was a “charter” laying out a roadmap to end the era of “economic dependency” and to establish a new phase in which emerging economies are the leaders, not the followers.

For an in-depth analysis of the outputs of this “manifesto,” a fundamental shift is revealed:

Emerging economies are no longer the “weak link” groaning under the weight of crises in advanced countries; rather, they have transformed into a “safety valve” now driving 70 percent of global growth.

The conference highlighted the exceptional resilience of emerging economies in the face of geopolitical storms, while issuing a firm warning that “this is no time for complacency.”

The closing statement issued by Aljadaan and Georgieva stressed that the conference, in its second edition, has “reaffirmed the value of a dedicated global forum focused on the shared challenges, opportunities, and aspirations of emerging market economies.”

They said “discussions focused on how emerging markets can navigate a global environment marked by persistent uncertainty, geopolitical shifts, evolving trade patterns, and rapid technological change.”

“These transformative trends highlight the urgency of strengthening policy frameworks and institutions to support resilience and leverage opportunities ahead,” they added.

According to Aljadaan and Georgieva, “the experience across many emerging markets shows that credible policy frameworks and institutional upgrades have helped achieve better inflation outcomes, maintain financial stability, and preserve market access, even amid heightened uncertainty.”

Aljadaan and Georgieva in the closing session of the conference. X

The joint statement also stressed that the real challenge is moving to the next phase of reforms that deliver higher, more sustained, and more job-rich growth.

“Unleashing the private sector will be central to this effort, including through deepening financial markets, reducing barriers to entrepreneurship and investment, and harnessing artificial intelligence by investing in digital infrastructure and equipping young people with skills necessary to thrive in the evolving global job market,” it said.

The conference also sent a message that in a world of shifting trade and investment patterns, deeper intra-regional and inter-regional integration offers big opportunities.

“Boosting trade and strengthening regional cooperation remain critical for emerging markets as they adapt to the changing global economic landscape,” said Aljadaan and Georgieva.

The Saudi minister and the IMF managing director also wrote an analysis published by “Project Syndicate” that said: “It used to be that when advanced economies sneezed, emerging markets caught a cold.”

“That is no longer true,” they added.

According to the analysis, “following recent global shocks, such as the post-pandemic inflation surge and a new wave of tariffs, emerging markets have held up well. Inflation has continued to slow, currencies have generally retained their value, and debt issuance costs have remained at manageable levels.”

But Aljadaan and Georgieva warned that “while emerging markets have made great strides in improving their policy frameworks and enhancing credibility, this is no time for complacency.”

They called for reforms in a turbulent world and urged policymakers to position their economies to take advantage of the potential productivity gains from AI. “Saudi Arabia, India, and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, for example, have unveiled impressive infrastructure investments that will lay the foundation for AI adoption for decades to come.”

They concluded their statement by saying that emerging market economies are coming together to discuss how they can leverage their growing scale and build on their hard-won resilience.



UK Inflation Holds Steady at 2.8% Ahead of Bank of England Decision

A shopper in a London supermarket (EPA)
A shopper in a London supermarket (EPA)
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UK Inflation Holds Steady at 2.8% Ahead of Bank of England Decision

A shopper in a London supermarket (EPA)
A shopper in a London supermarket (EPA)

British inflation unexpectedly held at 2.8% for May, unchanged from the 13-month low reached in April, official figures showed on Wednesday, a day before the Bank of England will announce its next interest rate decision.

Sterling weakened a little against the US dollar after the data and investors slightly trimmed their expectations for a rate rise later this year.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a rise to 3.0% for May, as the US-Iran war kept British inflation almost a percentage point higher than the BoE had forecast in February.

Lower prices than in April for meat, ⁠vegetables and dairy products ⁠as well as domestic heating oil helped offset a jump in airfares and petrol, the Office for National Statistics said.

Inflation has been above the BoE's 2% target for most of the past five years.

In April, the BoE said it was likely to rise above 3.5% by the end of the year and potentially exceed 6% early next year under the most adverse of three scenarios.

However, ⁠financial markets this week have drawn comfort from an interim agreement between the US and Iran which promises to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a major corridor for oil exports, and is due to be signed in Switzerland on Friday.

"Today's data strengthens the case for a continued cautious approach from the Bank of England," Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, said.

"Underlying inflationary pressures have yet to show clear signs of strengthening, which is likely to underpin a majority decision within the Monetary Policy Committee to hold interest rates at Thursday's meeting," she said.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee to vote 7-2 to keep rates on hold at 3.75%.

While Governor Andrew Bailey says ⁠the BoE has ⁠time to wait to assess the impact of the conflict, some policymakers worry businesses will use it to raise prices more broadly, or that it could dent households' confidence in the BoE inflation target.

Britain has been more affected than most Western countries by the conflict due to its reliance on imported natural gas and manufacturers reported an 8.7% annual rise in their raw material costs for May, the biggest since February 2023.

Services price inflation - which the BoE views as a guide to underlying price pressures - rose to 3.7% in May from 3.2% in April, in line with economists' forecasts.

The rise in services inflation partly reflected a 10.3% monthly jump in airfares, which are volatile. High Easter prices were not captured in April 2026 data but were in 2025.

Core inflation, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, rose slightly less than expected to 2.6% from 2.5%.


Gold Steady as Investors Await Details of US-Iran Deal, Fed Verdict

People walk past a gold business shop at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, Tuesday, June 16, 2026. (AP)
People walk past a gold business shop at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, Tuesday, June 16, 2026. (AP)
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Gold Steady as Investors Await Details of US-Iran Deal, Fed Verdict

People walk past a gold business shop at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, Tuesday, June 16, 2026. (AP)
People walk past a gold business shop at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, Tuesday, June 16, 2026. (AP)

Gold prices were steady on Wednesday, near a one-week high, as investors awaited further details on the US-Iran agreement and the Federal Reserve's policy decision from Kevin Warsh's debut meeting as Chair.

Spot gold was flat at $4,331.29 per ounce, as of 0420 GMT. U.S. gold futures for August delivery was down 0.1% at $4,351.40.

Bullion touched an ‌over one-week ‌high of $4,370.82 on Monday.

Details of a US-Iran interim deal ‌to ⁠end the conflict ⁠are emerging, with President Donald Trump saying it would rule out a nuclear weapon for Tehran and a US official saying it would allow Iran to sell oil once signed.

Oil prices hovered near a three-month low on expectations of Iranian supply, easing inflation concerns.

"The rally (in gold) is losing some steam as all eyes turn to the ⁠monetary policy announcement from the Fed," said Ilya Spivak, ‌head of global macro at ‌Tastylive.

"This marks the first FOMC meeting to be chaired by Kevin Warsh and ‌traders still seem unsure about how he will reconcile a ‌hawkish record, rising inflation, and pressure from a White House demanding a dovish pivot," Spivak said.

Most Fed policymakers now feel they will need to keep US short-term borrowing costs on hold all year, projections due out later ‌in the day are expected to show, with a small number seen penciling in a rate ⁠hike to ⁠stop a spike in inflation from getting entrenched in the economy.

Traders see a 59% chance of a US rate hike in December, down from about 70% last week before the US-Iran peace deal announcement, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Gold tends to lose appeal when rates are high, as it does not yield interest.

"Over the longer term, structural support (for gold) is expected to persist, driven by ongoing Asian demand and continued central bank purchases as a hedge against geopolitical and policy risks," Westpac analysts wrote in a research note.

Spot silver fell 0.2% to $70.05 per ounce, platinum lost 0.7% to $1,792.05, and palladium was down 0.8% at $1,341.23.


Oil Dips as Investors Weigh Deal on Iran War as Uncertainty Persists on Hormuz

 A person prepares to pump gas at a Valero gas station on June 16, 2026 in Austin, Texas. (Getty Images via AFP)
A person prepares to pump gas at a Valero gas station on June 16, 2026 in Austin, Texas. (Getty Images via AFP)
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Oil Dips as Investors Weigh Deal on Iran War as Uncertainty Persists on Hormuz

 A person prepares to pump gas at a Valero gas station on June 16, 2026 in Austin, Texas. (Getty Images via AFP)
A person prepares to pump gas at a Valero gas station on June 16, 2026 in Austin, Texas. (Getty Images via AFP)

Oil prices inched lower on Wednesday, extending the previous session's declines as investors assessed the US-Iran peace deal, though uncertainty over the full resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz limited further falls.

Brent crude futures dipped 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $78.80 a barrel by 0340 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate fell 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $75.80 a barrel.

Both benchmarks fell about 5% for a second straight session on Tuesday to stand at three-month lows, on hopes that a US-Iran deal would allow oil flows through the Strait.

"Markets are broadly stripping out ‌the embedded geopolitical risk ‌premium in oil prices," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at ‌Phillip ⁠Nova.

"That said, the ⁠path toward normalization remains far from straightforward. While political agreements may be progressing, physical tanker traffic through the Strait has yet to fully recover."

The deal would provide for the United States to lift its blockade of Iran's ports, while Tehran would allow oil tanker traffic through the Strait, effectively blocked since US and Israel strikes on February 28.

"Oil markets retreated on expectations the Strait of Hormuz would reopen following the peace agreement, but traders held off further ⁠selling pending details," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan ‌Securities Investment.

WTI is likely to stay volatile in ‌a range of $10 above or below $80 a barrel, he added.

Before the closure, about a fifth of ‌global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies flowed through the Strait.

Details of ‌the interim peace deal began to emerge on Tuesday, with President Donald Trump saying it would rule out a nuclear weapon for Tehran and a US official saying it would allow Iran to sell oil upon signing.

The memorandum of understanding, not yet public, extends by another 60 days a ‌tenuous ceasefire agreed in April, so as to allow room for talks toward a permanent truce.

Still, industry officials say a ⁠full return to ⁠pre-war production and refining levels is likely to take weeks, months or even years.

Israel has distanced itself from both the April ceasefire and the latest US-Iran pact, fueling uncertainty about whether it will hold.

Israeli drone strikes targeted three vehicles in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, killing at least four and wounding others, Lebanon's National News Agency said, prompting a rare public rebuke from Trump.

China's crude oil throughput fell 9.1% in May on the year to its lowest in almost four years, data showed, also signaling that refiners were starting to draw on stockpiles amid the Iran war.

The American Petroleum Institute report showed US crude stocks fell 8.3 million barrels in the week ended June 12, the sources said.

It exceeded expectations for a draw of 4.6 million barrels, with official numbers due from the Energy Information Administration at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.