Oil Prices Edge Lower as IEA Reduces Demand Forecast
Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
Oil prices slipped on Thursday as investors weighed the International Energy Agency's lowering of its global oil demand forecast for 2026 against potential escalation of US-Iran tensions.
Brent crude oil futures were down 19 cents, or 0.27%, at $69.21 a barrel by 1232 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 8 cents, or 0.12%, to $64.55.
Global oil demand will rise more slowly than previously expected this year, the IEA said on Thursday while projecting a sizeable surplus despite outages that cut supply in January.
The Brent and WTI benchmarks reversed gains to turn negative after the IEA's monthly report, having derived support earlier from concerns over the US-Iran backdrop.
US President Donald Trump said after talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday that they had yet to reach a definitive agreement on how to move forward with Iran but that negotiations with Tehran would continue.
Trump had said on Tuesday that he was considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East if a deal is not reached with Iran. The date and venue of the next round of talks have yet to be announced.
A hefty build in US crude inventories had capped the early price gains. US crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, far exceeding the 793,000 increase expected by analysts in a Reuters poll.
US refinery utilization rates dropped by 1.1 percentage points in the week to 89.4%, EIA data showed.
On the supply side, Russia's seaborne oil products exports in January rose by 0.7% from December to 9.12 million metric tons on high fuel output and a seasonal drop in domestic demand, data from industry sources and Reuters calculations showed.
IMF Expects Middle East Economies to Rebound to 6.6% Growth in 2027https://english.aawsat.com/business/5329826-imf-expects-middle-east-economies-rebound-66-growth-2027
Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) attends a press conference at the IMF/World Bank 2026 Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., US, April 16, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
IMF Expects Middle East Economies to Rebound to 6.6% Growth in 2027
Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) attends a press conference at the IMF/World Bank 2026 Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., US, April 16, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
The International Monetary Fund expects the economies of the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan to rebound to growth of 6.6 percent in 2027, following a projected contraction of 1.3 percent this year, amid the economic fallout from the regional war and disruptions to energy production and trade, which have affected countries across the region to varying degrees.
Jihad Azour, the IMF's director for the Middle East and Central Asia, said economies directly affected by the conflict are facing severe pressures, while other economies in the region, along with most countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, have shown greater resilience.
He explained that the path of the recovery will depend largely on how quickly energy production and trade return to normal and on countries’ ability to maintain macroeconomic stability.
The forecasts come after the economies of the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan grew by 3.3 percent in 2025, illustrating the scale of the shock expected this year before a strong rebound next year.
Azour stressed, however, that the overall projections mask significant disparities among the region’s economies and that the recovery will not be uniform across countries.
Oil Exporters and Importers
Azour said oil-exporting countries directly affected by disruptions to energy production and trade will experience a marked contraction in 2026, although higher oil prices will provide some support to their fiscal and external positions.
A gradual recovery in production and trade is expected to drive a strong rebound in GDP growth in 2027, although output levels will remain below the trajectory projected before the outbreak of the conflict.
By contrast, economic activity in the region’s oil-importing countries has remained relatively resilient during 2026 and is expected to continue doing so. Workers’ remittances, tourism revenues, favorable financial conditions and government support have helped cushion the immediate impact of the shock, although the policy space available to governments is narrowing.
The IMF expects inflation in these economies to rise moderately in 2026 before gradually easing thereafter.
The Chinese-flagged container shipping vessel Hui Fa transits the Gulf of Oman on October 13, 2026. (Photo by AFP)
Lower Inventories, Greater Risks
Azour noted that the impact of the energy shock has been less severe than initial estimates suggested, thanks to surpluses accumulated before the war, production by non-Gulf countries, alternative transportation routes, adjustments in demand and drawdowns from inventories.
He cautioned, however, that these factors have provided time for adjustment but are not sustainable resources. Available inventories have declined and spare production capacity has narrowed, leaving markets more vulnerable to larger price increases should disruptions recur.
Azour identified a prolonged war as the most significant risk to the outlook, warning that further disruptions to energy production, shipping routes or critical infrastructure would weaken economic activity among Gulf oil exporters, increase inflationary pressures and exacerbate fiscal and external strains across the region.
He also warned that tighter global financial conditions could weaken demand, raise borrowing costs and increase pressure on currencies, particularly in economies with substantial sovereign debt-financing needs or a heavy reliance on external financing.
Low-income and fragile economies remain the most vulnerable to these risks because of their dependence on food imports and limited fiscal space, at a time when official development assistance is also declining.
Call for Targeted Support and Rebuilding Fiscal Buffers
Azour urged policymakers to prioritize price stability and fiscal sustainability, using monetary policy as the first line of defense when inflationary pressures emerge, complemented by prudent fiscal policy, particularly in countries with limited financial resources.
He stressed the importance of rebuilding fiscal buffers to withstand future shocks by strengthening domestic revenues, improving spending efficiency and developing stronger fiscal frameworks. He cautioned against broad-based subsidies, favoring instead temporary and targeted cash assistance for the groups most affected, helping keep the cost of intervention within budgetary limits.
Over the longer term, Azour emphasized the importance of strong institutions, credible monetary frameworks and central bank independence, alongside greater trade diversification, deeper regional integration and a stronger capacity to adopt new technologies, including artificial intelligence, to boost productivity and support growth.
Azour noted that the IMF has approved approximately $48 billion in financing for countries in the region since 2020. During fiscal year 2026, it also carried out around 437 technical assistance and capacity-building projects in 31 countries.
The IMF is scheduled to release its full regional report in Dubai on October 22, providing a more detailed assessment of economic developments and policy priorities.
Gold Rebounds from One-week Low as Dollar Slipshttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5329812-gold-rebounds-one-week-low-dollar-slips
Gold bracelets and necklaces on display for sale at a gold shop in Istanbul's Grand Bazaar (AFP)
Gold prices climbed 1% on Thursday, rebounding from a one-week low hit in the previous session as the US dollar eased, while investors assessed the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase this month after a hot inflation report.
Spot gold rose 1% to $4,146.74 per ounce by 0501 GMT, after hitting its lowest since October 7 on Wednesday. US gold futures for December delivery gained 1.5% to $4,167.30.
The dollar slipped after scaling an 18-month peak overnight. A softer dollar makes greenback-priced bullion more affordable for buyers overseas.
"What we're seeing here is just the symptoms of a market uncertain about US interest rate policy, and that is resulting in a bit of volatility," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.
"We're coming up to a really critical level for gold, which is just below the $4,000 level. If we see, again, some really strong data, then there's a view that the Fed will have to hike relatively urgently, then that will be the level of focus."
US consumer prices accelerated in September as the cost of gasoline surged. Traders are pricing in about a 29% chance of a rate hike later this month, compared with 22% before the data, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the US central bank will probably need to increase short-term interest rates further, though she signaled no need for a hike at the October 27-28 meeting. Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said there's time to wait and see before any more action.
Although gold is viewed as an inflation hedge, higher interest rates reduce its appeal because it does not pay interest.
Market focus now turns to the Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data due at 1230 GMT.
Among other metals, spot silver gained 0.7% to $56.01, platinum rose 1% to $1,608.20 and palladium climbed 1.3% to $1,108.14.
IMF Plans Mission to Lebanon in Novemberhttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5329805-imf-plans-mission-lebanon-november
A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, DC, US, November 24, 2024. (Reuters)
IMF officials held good discussions with Lebanese authorities this week that will continue in coming weeks, with IMF staff to visit the country in November, a senior IMF official said on Thursday.
Athanasios Arvanitis, deputy director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department, said the focus of the discussions had been on the banking sector and ensuring that the Lebanese people had confidence in the system, Reuters reported.
Restoring debt sustainability was another key issue, Arvanitis said.
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