Lebanese Army Support Hinges on Disarmament Plan North of Litani

Two Lebanese army soldiers at a military border post with Israel in the village of Alma El Chaab in southern Lebanon (Archive - AP)
Two Lebanese army soldiers at a military border post with Israel in the village of Alma El Chaab in southern Lebanon (Archive - AP)
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Lebanese Army Support Hinges on Disarmament Plan North of Litani

Two Lebanese army soldiers at a military border post with Israel in the village of Alma El Chaab in southern Lebanon (Archive - AP)
Two Lebanese army soldiers at a military border post with Israel in the village of Alma El Chaab in southern Lebanon (Archive - AP)

The Qatari capital is set to host a preparatory meeting on Sunday ahead of an international conference in Paris aimed at supporting the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Internal Security Forces.

The Doha meeting will bring together the five sponsoring countries - France, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt - along with other states and international and regional organizations.

Its purpose is to understand LAF’s needs, while developing financial and military support mechanisms to ensure the success of the main conference, scheduled for March 5 in Paris. French officials expect around 50 countries and 10 organizations to take part.

Given the central role of the LAF, its responsibilities and its contribution to upholding Lebanese sovereignty, both the Doha meeting and the Paris conference are expected to provide it with substantial political backing.

According to French sources, the one-day conference will be co-hoted by French President Emmanuel Macron and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.

Expectations from the Doha Meeting

Paris is playing a key role in organizing both meetings. Preparations were among the main issues discussed during the two-day visit to Beirut last weekend of French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot.

His visit coincided with the Lebanese army leadership’s preparations for the second phase of an operation to disarm Hezbollah. This phase covers the area stretching from the Litani River to the Awali River, north of the southern port city of Sidon.

Paris identifies two main challenges. The first is the need to continue the disarmament process launched by the army in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The second is enabling conference participants to accurately assess the army’s needs, allowing international partners to coordinate their support through a dedicated mechanism.

France has deliberately avoided setting a specific figure for the assistance expected to be announced at the conference, stressing that support will be multi-dimensional and not limited to financial aid.

It will also include military capabilities, logistical support and training. Paris estimates the LAF’s annual needs at more than $1 billion, but notes that these cannot be met through foreign assistance alone and that part must be covered by the Lebanese state budget.

Army Commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal reported receiving assurances during talks in Washington that the United States remains committed to supporting the LAF.

Paris and the other four sponsors are counting on the Doha meeting to allow the army command to present a detailed assessment of its needs.

Borders, Syria and the Economy

Paris has also expressed satisfaction with the results of Barrot’s talks in Beirut regarding Lebanon’s relations with its neighbors, particularly Syria. French officials believe that an agreement to transfer Syrian prisoners held in Lebanon back to Syria could have a positive impact on the demarcation of the land border between the two countries.

France has offered its assistance, saying it holds mandate-era maps.

The prisoner transfer deal could also impact the return of Syrian refugees, an issue of strategic importance for Lebanon.

At the same time, Paris is fully aware of the challenges Lebanon faces with Israel, whether due to near-daily military operations or Israel’s refusal to withdraw from five positions it occupies inside Lebanese territory.

France nevertheless welcomes the indirect talks held within the framework of the ceasefire mechanism committee and supports maintaining it, even though its impact on the ground has so far been limited.

Barrot's talks also focused on financial and economic issues, notably the so-called financial gap law approved by the cabinet and sent to parliament for discussion.

France has called for its approval before the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, arguing that such a step would send a positive signal about the seriousness of Lebanese authorities in addressing the country’s economic crisis.

Paris believes parliamentary approval would have a direct impact on prospects for a conference to support the Lebanese economy, which France has reaffirmed its readiness to host.



Iraq PM Vows to Prevent Attacks After French Soldier Killed

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
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Iraq PM Vows to Prevent Attacks After French Soldier Killed

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)

Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani vowed on Friday to prevent attacks after the killing of a French soldier in an attack in the autonomous Kurdistan region.

Sudani expressed his "solidarity" with France in a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron.

He said that "the necessary measures will be taken to prevent the recurrence of such incidents", and an investigation will be conducted into the attack.

The president of Iraq's Kurdistan region Nechirvan Barzani, in a call with Macron, also expressed his condolences and called for the Iraqi government to "set limits on outlaw groups".


Syria, Lebanon Test Ties Amid Regional Escalation

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during the Arab Summit in Egypt, March 4, 2025 (AP)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during the Arab Summit in Egypt, March 4, 2025 (AP)
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Syria, Lebanon Test Ties Amid Regional Escalation

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during the Arab Summit in Egypt, March 4, 2025 (AP)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during the Arab Summit in Egypt, March 4, 2025 (AP)

Before a March 10 phone call between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to discuss regional developments and their impact on the security and stability of both countries and the wider region, it appeared the two leaders had not been in direct contact since each assumed the presidency a little over a year ago.

In the days before speaking with Aoun, al-Sharaa contacted several Lebanese political figures. On March 6, he spoke with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt. On March 8, he called Kataeb Party leader MP Sami Gemayel.

During those calls, al-Sharaa expressed “solidarity with the Lebanese people in these difficult circumstances Lebanon is going through.”

He said the reinforcement of the Syrian military presence along the Syrian-Lebanese border on March 3 was intended solely to strengthen border control and safeguard Syria’s internal security. He described the steps as similar to measures taken along the Syrian-Iraqi border.

The contacts came against the backdrop of war in the region and broader regional developments, and included discussions on the future of Syrian-Lebanese relations. Al-Sharaa stressed the importance of continued coordination between the two countries.

According to the Kataeb Party’s official website, the call between al-Sharaa and Gemayel took place in a positive atmosphere and included discussion of opening a new chapter in bilateral relations.

Al-Sharaa said ties between Syria and Lebanon should rest on “mutual respect between the two states,” alongside stronger economic cooperation and integration that serves the interests of both peoples.

However, the two days following the March 8 call triggered speculation that relations between the two countries were strained because of current and past issues.

Al-Sharaa moved to dispel that speculation with a direct call to Aoun. The following day, French President Emmanuel Macron said he had spoken with both leaders and welcomed the dialogue, saying “the coordination launched by the Lebanese and Syrian leaderships is important” and that France would continue to support it.

Overall, the contacts have raised cautious optimism about neighborly relations at a sensitive moment.

Asharq Al-Awsat asked Syrian analysts how they see relations between the two countries evolving in the near term amid ongoing regional developments.

Foundations of the relationship

Bassam Barabandi, a Syrian analyst and former diplomat based in Washington, said Damascus approaches relations with Lebanon on several foundations.

First is non-interference in Lebanon’s internal politics. Second is border security, particularly preventing Hezbollah from operating inside Syria or transferring weapons through Syrian territory, as well as halting drug smuggling through Syria, which requires direct cooperation with Lebanon.

Third is the issue of Syrians held in Lebanese prisons, which he said is under discussion.

Barabandi said contacts between the two sides, including the call between al-Sharaa and Aoun, produced understandings on several issues, notably mutual non-interference in internal affairs and handling files related to Syrian fugitives in Lebanon and Syrian refugees.

He noted that Lebanon’s political system requires engagement with multiple actors, since the president is only one part of a broader governing structure. Communicating Syrian assurances or positions, therefore, requires outreach to different political leaders.

In that context, al-Sharaa contacted Gemayel to thank him for efforts aimed at accelerating solutions for Syrians detained in Lebanon, and in recognition of his political weight among Christians.

The Syrian president also contacted Jumblatt, Lebanon’s top Druze leader.

Further contacts with other figures could follow if needed, Barabandi said.

He added that the Syrian government supports steps taken by the Lebanese government regarding Hezbollah, particularly efforts related to disarming the group.

Expanding dialogue

Jumaa Mohammed Laheeb, director of research and studies at the Syrian Future Movement, said the current dynamic between Damascus and Beirut reflects a dual reality: relatively advanced security and political coordination alongside political uncertainty.

That uncertainty is most evident in sensitive files, particularly those related to detainees, he said. In that context, al-Sharaa’s call with Salam can be understood.

Laheeb said the call and Syria’s expression of support for Lebanon amid the regional escalation focused on two main issues: border control and reassuring the Lebanese government that Syrian military deployments aim to strengthen control within Syrian territory rather than stoke tensions in Lebanon.

Such communication reflects effective operational channels between the two governments, particularly after understandings reached in recent years on smuggling and border crossings. But those channels alone cannot resolve politically and historically sensitive files such as detainees and the missing, he said.

Laheeb said the Lebanese presidency sits at the center of complex domestic balances involving Hezbollah’s influence, as well as Christian, Sunni and Druze segments.

Al-Sharaa’s initial reluctance to call Aoun directly — while opening communication with figures such as Jumblatt and Gemayel — reflects a Syrian effort to broaden the range of Lebanese actors it engages with.

Damascus appears to be seeking greater regional legitimacy by opening dialogue with forces opposed to Hezbollah’s dominance, he said. But key decisions on issues such as detainees, refugees and border security still pass through domestic circles in which Hezbollah retains considerable influence.

The detainee file, he said, remains a bargaining chip rather than a purely humanitarian priority, leading to delays and partial solutions rather than a comprehensive settlement.

Testing relations with Damascus

Syrian researcher Ahmad Abazid said Damascus does not want to become involved in the current war or intervene militarily against Hezbollah. However, he said the Syrian government has, from the outset, made support for the Lebanese state a cornerstone of its relationship with Lebanon, alongside what he described as genuine hostility toward Hezbollah.

For that reason, he said, it is natural for Damascus to support Aoun’s initiative to disarm the group.

At the same time, Abazid argued Hezbollah would be the weaker side in any confrontation with the new Syrian army. The history of relations between the group and Syrian opposition would likely push many fighters to confront Hezbollah if such a battle emerged, he said.

He also pointed to rising tensions. Hezbollah said Syrian territory had been used as the launch point for a second Israeli operation in the Lebanese town of Nabi Sheet in the Bekaa Valley. Shortly afterward, the Syrian army said Hezbollah had fired artillery shells at the Sarghaya region in western Syria.

Abazid said the escalation could reflect two possible dynamics. One is an Iranian attempt to spread instability across the region during the current war to increase pressure on all sides, particularly Arab states.

The other is that Hezbollah feels threatened by the Syrian side, especially as Lebanese actors have refrained from launching military initiatives against the group and after remarks by US envoy Tom Barrack suggesting possible Syrian intervention in Lebanon.


Iraq PM Vows to Prevent Attacks After French Soldier Killed

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
TT

Iraq PM Vows to Prevent Attacks After French Soldier Killed

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)

Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani vowed on Friday to prevent attacks after the killing of a French soldier in an attack in the autonomous Kurdistan region.

Sudani expressed his "solidarity" with France in a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron.

He said that "the necessary measures will be taken to prevent the recurrence of such incidents", and an investigation will be conducted into the attack.

The president of Iraq's Kurdistan region Nechirvan Barzani, in a call with Macron, also expressed his condolences and called for the Iraqi government to "set limits on outlaw groups".