Israeli officials are casting a series of alleged operations against senior Iranian figures as precise, intelligence-driven strikes, while analysts warn the narrative risks overstating their strategic impact and fueling a “false sense of victory.”
Among those cited in Israeli accounts are Ali Larijani, the head of the Supreme National Defense Council, and Esmail Khatib, Iran’s intelligence minister.
Israeli descriptions portray the operations as evidence of deep intelligence penetration within Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, often framed in dramatic, almost cinematic terms.
Officials say the operation against Larijani involved hundreds of personnel from military intelligence, the air force and special operations forces, relying on human sources and advanced surveillance technology.
He was reportedly tracked for months. After appearing at a Quds Day march last Friday, he was placed under continuous surveillance for 72 hours until what Israeli sources described as a “rare opportunity” - combining actionable intelligence, favorable conditions and intensive coordination - prompting the strike.
Following the operation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reported to have authorized the military to carry out assassinations of Iranian leaders without prior political approval, an extraordinary departure from standard procedure, which typically requires the PM’s authorization.
According to Israel’s public broadcaster, military intelligence recently gathered what it described as “dramatic intelligence” on Larijani’s location after he reportedly went into hiding early in the confrontation. A “golden tip” received Monday night enabled aerial tracking until a decision to strike was made, aided by improved weather conditions.
Channel 12 reported that Israeli aircraft entered Tehran’s airspace upon receiving the intelligence and remained on standby until authorization. The strike allegedly targeted his sister’s apartment using heavy munitions, destroying the building.
Larijani’s public appearance during the Quds Day march was cited as a key factor in the decision to act. Israeli accounts add that he had tried to evade surveillance by frequently changing locations and operating in secrecy, but intelligence services tracked him nonetheless.
Similar claims have been made regarding Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Israeli sources say they obtained precise, sometimes real-time, intelligence on his movements. For example, they say his security detail changed the timing of a meeting at the last minute - from Saturday evening, Feb. 28, to Saturday morning - yet the adjustment was reportedly known in advance.
Journalists at the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Israel initially planned a strike for the original time but revised the operation accordingly.
Israeli commentators have questioned how Iran could fail to protect senior officials despite anticipating such threats and deploying extensive security measures. The apparent intelligence breaches raise doubts about the effectiveness of the Revolutionary Guard’s protective apparatus.
However, former Mossad officer Sima Shine, now a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, warned that such assassinations could prove counterproductive. She said Larijani was seen as a pragmatic figure capable of bringing together different factions within Iran’s leadership. His removal, she said, could empower hard-liners, intensifying resistance and prolonging the conflict.
Similarly, former Israeli military intelligence official Danny Citrinowicz said Tehran has sufficient depth in leadership to absorb such losses. He dismissed the idea that assassinations alone could significantly weaken the system or decisively shift the course of the conflict.
