Policy Resilience and Transport Lifelines: Saudi Arabia’s Shield Against the Hormuz Crisis

Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh (SPA)
Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh (SPA)
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Policy Resilience and Transport Lifelines: Saudi Arabia’s Shield Against the Hormuz Crisis

Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh (SPA)
Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh (SPA)

As the world grapples with unprecedented turbulence fueled by the US-Israeli-Iranian confrontation, and as global supply chains reel from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Saudi economy has emerged as an exceptional model of resilience. This stability is no coincidence; rather, it is the fruit of proactive policies and early investments in diversifying transport arteries and logistics. This strategic integration has allowed the Kingdom to transform its geography from a point of dependency on threatened waterways into an impregnable economic fortress. Through land, sea, and air routes that have become "alternative lifelines," the Kingdom has not only ensured the flow of energy but also secured the region’s needs for food and medicine, cementing its status as a vital logistical hub amidst the surging waves of conflict.

Economic experts believe that the efficacy of Saudi economic policies, coupled with the cultivation of inherent strengths and diverse transport and export options, has contributed significantly to the economy's ability to withstand the repercussions of the ongoing regional conflict.

Policy Efficacy and Strategic Strength

In this context, Fadl bin Saad Al-Buainain, a member of the Shura Council and economic consultant, affirmed that the Saudi economy is characterized by strength, durability, and sustainability. He noted its capacity to adapt to emergency shifts by leveraging its fundamental assets, thereby mitigating the impact of the current crisis despite its high risks.

Al-Buainain emphasized that the sheer depth and scale of the Saudi economy allow it to absorb sudden shocks and even convert them into opportunities to address any emerging shortages. He pointed out that the strategic vision for the oil sector and "qualitative hedging" to ensure supply security have created critical alternatives for oil exports following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Al-Buainain, the sustainability of exports has bolstered the reliability of Saudi Aramco and maintained government revenues, while maximizing gains from high oil prices to compensate for any reduction in exported volumes.

Trucks on the highway between Riyadh and Al-Ahsa, about 200 kilometers east of the Saudi capital (AFP)

The Pivotal Role of "Vision 2030"

Al-Buainain underscored the fundamental role of reforms stemming from Saudi Vision 2030 in enhancing economic diversification and strategic hedging across financial and oil sectors. He noted that prudent management, directly overseen by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, served as the first line of defense against the crisis.

He cited S&P Global Ratings' affirmation of the Kingdom’s "A+" credit rating with a "Stable" outlook as the "strongest neutral evidence of economic durability and efficiency." He also highlighted the defensive aspect, stating: "The readiness of the military sectors was the most critical factor in protecting oil installations and achieving economic security," noting that the Kingdom’s Red Sea coastline has been vital in sustaining trade lines and protecting regional commerce.

A Logistical Platform and Humanitarian Responsibility

According to Al-Buainain, the Kingdom has transformed into a global logistics platform, opening its airports and ports as alternatives for neighboring countries. This has guaranteed the sustainability of food and medicine supply chains, providing much-needed stability to Gulf markets. In the energy sector, Saudi Arabia continued to meet customer demands and even offered additional barrels on the spot market, utilizing the East-West Pipeline and overseas storage reserves.

"In the transport and logistics sector, the Kingdom successfully managed the situation of stranded individuals, returning them to their home countries and ensuring the operation of Gulf airlines by opening alternative airports," Al-Buainain added.

He further revealed a massive humanitarian and logistical role played by Saudi ports in the Eastern Province, which provided food, medicine, and fuel to approximately 3,200 stranded ships and 40,000 sailors in the Arabian Gulf following Iranian threats to maritime safety. He stressed that "the Kingdom's humanitarian efforts do not waver, even under the darkest circumstances and in the face of barbaric acts that violate international law."

Stability in the Face of Crisis

For his part, Engineer Abdullah Al-Mobty, Chairman of the Abha Chamber and former Head of the Federation of Saudi Chambers, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the nature of the Saudi economy has made it resilient against the fallout of the US-Israeli-Iranian confrontation. He noted that the Kingdom has shown remarkable stability throughout historical crises thanks to a "clear vision set by the leadership to strengthen the economy through wise methodologies and plans."

Al-Mobty attributed this resilience to Riyadh’s role as a "reliable strategic depth," maintaining the best possible economic position even during a war of this magnitude. He noted that Saudi Arabia views proactive planning and foresight as an integral part of its commitment to the nation and its citizens' interests.

Trucks loaded with goods wait to cross into Qatar at the Salwa border crossing in eastern Saudi Arabia (AFP)

Land Transport Solutions

Al-Mobty emphasized that the Kingdom has never been an advocate of war; instead, its vision focused on creating strategic alternatives. He pointed to the Kingdom's ability to bypass the Strait of Hormuz by pumping crude via the Red Sea and securing the delivery of essential supplies to Gulf states through existing infrastructure.

"One of the immediate results we witnessed was the efficiency of the Saudi land transport sector," Al-Mobty stated. "It responded instantly and with massive capacity to cover the needs of the UAE and neighboring countries, both in passenger transport and securing supply chains. This proved the Kingdom’s success in turning its geographical location into an economic fortress for the region."

The Capacity to Absorb Shocks

Abdullah bin Zaid Al-Mulihi, CEO of Saudi Techno Excellence Company, stressed that the effectiveness of the Kingdom's plans in managing economic, trade, and investment sectors has granted it an exceptional ability to face the massive challenges currently paralyzing global and regional economies.

Al-Mulihi explained to Asharq Al-Awsat that Saudi economic policies are designed with high flexibility to absorb crises, citing the Kingdom's historical resilience during the 2008 global financial crisis. He noted that policies promoting diversification and advanced infrastructure, including land and sea ports, have optimized the Kingdom's unique geography.

"The multiplicity of transport and export options is what achieved this strategic resilience," Al-Mulihi said. He added that the Saudi land transport sector has become the "driving engine" of the region's economy, experiencing a strong boom as it secures the movement of goods and people, particularly to the UAE, reinforcing the sector as a primary pillar in confronting the current crisis.



Private Sector Fuels Saudi Arabia’s Growth Lead Among G20 Economies

A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)
A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)
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Private Sector Fuels Saudi Arabia’s Growth Lead Among G20 Economies

A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)
A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)

Fueled by a surging private sector and expanding non-oil industries, Saudi Arabia is poised to become the G20’s fastest-growing economy in 2027, overtaking India, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts released last week.

The IMF expects the Saudi economy to grow by 7.9%, ahead of India’s projected 7%, highlighting the Kingdom’s economic transformation as regulatory and legislative reforms unlock new investment opportunities.

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Investment said the forecast underscores the economy’s strength and resilience while opening new avenues for investment and growth.

Momentum in the private sector and the expansion of non-oil activities are helping steer the Kingdom toward a more diversified, sustainable and investment-friendly economy, it said.

The IMF sharply raised its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 7.9%, from 5.5% in July, an upward revision of 2.4 percentage points that reflects prospects for recovery from the fallout of war and disruptions to trade and energy markets.

The outlook also highlights the structural transformation underway through Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, as non-oil sectors take on a greater role in driving growth and strengthening the economy against global headwinds.

The focus now shifts to whether the Kingdom can sustain that momentum and turn rapid expansion into lasting investment opportunities and jobs.

New sectors drive growth

Saudi Arabia’s projected lead among G20 economies signals a deeper structural shift away from its traditional reliance on oil revenues, according to Fahad Binjumah, an economist and former member of the Saudi Shura Council.

The private sector is emerging as a major engine of growth, bolstered by regulatory and legislative reforms, expanding investment opportunities and the rising contribution of non-oil industries.

Binjumah told Asharq Al-Awsat that the shift marks Saudi Arabia’s gradual transition from direct government stimulus toward a more diversified and productive economy capable of generating growth.

Major government investments have helped lay the groundwork, creating a stronger business environment and opening new sectors to local and foreign investors, he explained.

Strategic projects in tourism, industry, logistics and technology are also generating economic activity well beyond their immediate scope. Investment spending is rippling through supply chains and small and medium-sized businesses, widening commercial opportunities and drawing more parts of the economy into the growth cycle.

But for Binjumah, topping the G20 growth rankings is less important than sustaining that performance over the coming years.

"The main challenge is to turn economic expansion into long-term productivity gains by improving the efficiency of domestic businesses, boosting non-oil exports, developing skills and increasing private investment independent of government spending," he stressed.

Progress on those fronts would propel Saudi Arabia into a more advanced stage of economic diversification, where success is measured not simply by rapid growth but by a more resilient, competitive economy that generates added value and sustainable jobs, he added.

Reforms bolster economic resilience

Saudi Arabia’s rise in G20 growth projections is the product of years of economic reform, not a short-lived boost in any single sector, said Nasser Al-Sahli, president of the Saudi Governance Center.

Legislative changes, easier business procedures, wider investor participation and the restructuring of key sectors have made the economy more attractive to investment and better equipped to turn capital into productive activity, Al-Sahli told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The private sector’s expanding role shows that these reforms are increasingly translating into tangible economic gains, he said.

Their importance has grown amid geopolitical tensions, global trade and energy disruptions, and risks surrounding strategic maritime routes in the region. A broader non-oil economic base is helping Saudi Arabia diversify its income sources and reduce its exposure to external shocks.

"Economic diversification does not mean complete isolation from global developments, but building a productive and investment system capable of adapting to them and maintaining business continuity under different conditions," Al-Sahli said.

The next test will be whether Saudi Arabia’s private sector can move beyond capitalizing on opportunities created by government projects to driving investment expansion independently and sustainably, he went on to say.

That will require stronger productivity and competition, better access to financing, greater innovation and a larger international footprint for Saudi companies.

Al-Sahli said the real significance of Saudi Arabia’s projected G20 lead lies not in the ranking itself but in its ability to turn growth momentum into a more diversified and efficient economy, powered by a private sector that creates high-quality jobs and lasting economic value.

How G20 economies rank

India is forecast to rank second in G20 economic growth in 2027 at 7%, followed by Indonesia at 5.1%, China at 4% and Türkiye at 3.6%, according to IMF figures presented by the Saudi Ministry of Investment.

Argentina ranks sixth at 3.5%, followed by South Korea at 2.8% and the United States at 2.3%. Brazil is projected to grow by 1.9%, Mexico by 1.8%, Canada by 1.7%, Australia by 1.6%, South Africa by 1.3% and the United Kingdom by 1.2%. Germany is forecast to expand by 1.1% and Russia by 0.9%, while France and Japan are each expected to grow by 0.7%.


Saudi Arabia Leads G20 with 7.9% Growth Forecast in 2027

King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia Leads G20 with 7.9% Growth Forecast in 2027

King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia is projected to lead the G20 countries in economic growth forecasts for 2027, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates. The IMF projects the Kingdom's real GDP to grow by 7.9 percent, the highest rate among the group's economies, as shown in data published by the Saudi Ministry of Investment.

The Fund had previously raised its projections for the Kingdom's real GDP growth to 7.9 percent, compared to 5.5 percent in its July estimates, an increase of 2.4 percentage points.

This revision comes amid expectations of economic activity regaining momentum as regional conflict-related disruptions subside, and oil production and exports gradually return to normal levels.

India ranked second among G20 countries with a projected growth rate of 7 percent, followed by Indonesia at 5.1 percent, then China at 4 percent, and Türkiye at 3.6 percent, according to IMF data reviewed by the Ministry.

Argentina came in sixth with projected growth of 3.5 percent, followed by South Korea at 2.8 percent, then the United States at 2.3 percent. Projections for Brazil stood at 1.9 percent, Mexico at 1.8 percent, Canada at 1.7 percent, Australia at 1.6 percent, South Africa at 1.3 percent, and the United Kingdom at 1.2 percent.

Germany registered projected growth of 1.1 percent, Russia 0.9 percent, while projections for France and Japan were 0.7 percent each, with Italy coming in last at 0.6 percent.

Growth Forecasts Revised

In an assessment of the recovery path, the Fund noted that the diversification of Saudi energy export routes limits the Kingdom's vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions compared to some regional economies. This is due to the the East-West Pipeline's ability to divert some oil exports to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea, away from the Strait of Hormuz.

The IMF's estimates align with the World Bank's projections, which also raised its forecast for Saudi economic growth in 2027 to 7.9 percent, compared to 4.9 percent in its April estimates, while anticipating a 2 percent contraction in GDP during 2026.

Globally, the IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.1 percent in 2026 before rising to 3.4 percent in 2027, placing Saudi Arabia's growth forecast at more than double the projected global rate for the coming year.

The Saudi Ministry of Investment said that the Kingdom’s leading growth outlook among G20 countries reflects the strength and resilience of its economy and opens up broader prospects for investment and growth.

This is supported by strong private-sector momentum and the expansion of non-oil activities, reinforcing the Kingdom’s shift toward a more diversified, sustainable, and investment-friendly economy.


Saudi Arabia to Host Global Water Innovation Conference in Jeddah

 Participants at a previous edition of the Innovation Driven Water Sustainability Conference. (Saudi Water Authority)
Participants at a previous edition of the Innovation Driven Water Sustainability Conference. (Saudi Water Authority)
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Saudi Arabia to Host Global Water Innovation Conference in Jeddah

 Participants at a previous edition of the Innovation Driven Water Sustainability Conference. (Saudi Water Authority)
Participants at a previous edition of the Innovation Driven Water Sustainability Conference. (Saudi Water Authority)

Saudi Arabia will host water industry experts from more than 140 countries in Jeddah from December 14 to 16 for a conference focused on harnessing innovation to tackle growing water security challenges.

Organized by the Saudi Water Authority, the Innovation Driven Water Sustainability Conference (IDWS 2026) is expected to draw more than 10,000 participants and 250 speakers, with an exhibition featuring over 150 international brands.

Bringing together researchers, investors, technology companies and water utility operators, the event aims to bridge the gap between scientific advances and the practical needs of the industry, helping promising solutions reach commercial markets.

Tariq Al-Ghafari, the authority’s vice president for research and emerging water technologies, described the conference as an opportunity to connect new technologies with financing and operational expertise, paving the way for wider adoption.

The gathering comes as pressure on water resources intensifies, creating growing demand for investment in infrastructure and technology.

The global market for water security and infrastructure management is estimated at $303.8 billion, while planned construction and engineering projects in the water and wastewater sectors exceed $1.2 trillion.

Meeting the UN Sustainable Development Goals for clean water and sanitation will require an additional $131 billion to $140 billion annually, highlighting the scale of investment needed to expand access and modernize infrastructure.

According to the World Health Organization and UNICEF, around 1.8 billion people live in households without water supplies on the premises.

Agriculture alone accounts for approximately 72% of global freshwater withdrawals, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, underscoring the importance of improving efficiency in water-intensive sectors.

Against this backdrop, the conference will explore ways to expand treated wastewater reuse, promote circular economy practices and apply artificial intelligence, digital technologies and data analytics to water management.

Discussions will also examine how regulation, financing and workforce development can speed up the adoption of new technologies, while improving efficiency across the water cycle, from production and treatment to resource recovery.

The program includes the MiyahThon innovation competition, startup showcases and the fourth edition of the Global Prize for Innovation in Water.

These initiatives are designed to bring innovators together with investors and water operators, giving emerging technologies a clearer path from development to commercial deployment.

By connecting research with investment and industry needs, the conference aims to help turn promising ideas into practical solutions as countries seek more efficient, resilient and sustainable water infrastructure.