Gulf Cooperation Council countries, under sustained Iranian attack, are closely tracking indirect US-Iran talks that Pakistan said on Thursday it is facilitating by relaying messages between the two sides.
Data monitored by Asharq Al-Awsat showed that by Wednesday evening, about 83% of Iran’s missile and drone attacks since the war entered its fourth week had targeted Gulf Arab states, compared with 17% aimed at Israel.
The tally recorded 4,391 missiles and drones striking Gulf countries, hitting critical infrastructure and civilian sites, versus 930 launched at Israel, which is leading the war.
Shaping the next phase
Gulf states on Thursday began to outline their stance on any negotiations over the conflict’s future.
Jasem Albudaiwi, Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council, said the bloc must be included “in any talks or agreements to resolve this crisis,” to safeguard security and prevent further attacks.
He rejected any frameworks, initiatives, or regional arrangements aimed at reshaping the Middle East after this conflict ends, underscoring Gulf insistence on a role in defining the region’s next phase.
Diplomacy first
Albudaiwi said international law allows states multiple options under the UN Charter, but stressed that the most rational and effective option is the diplomatic and political one.
Ahmed Al-Ibrahim, a political analyst specializing in US affairs, said Gulf states view US-Iran talks with cautious realism.
They do not oppose negotiations, but want outcomes that address what they see as the core threat, not only Iran’s nuclear program, but also its ballistic missiles and regional influence in Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq.
A joint statement by five Gulf states and Jordan on Wednesday condemned attacks by Iran-aligned factions in Iraq on regional countries and infrastructure. It urged Baghdad to act immediately to halt such attacks launched from its territory and avoid further escalation.
Trust frays
Al-Ibrahim said Gulf confidence in both sides is limited. That view was reinforced by remarks from the Saudi foreign minister last week that “trust in Iran has been shattered.”
Al-Budaiwi said GCC states were surprised by US-Israeli strikes on Iran and had made clear they would not take part in military action or allow their territory to be used against Iran.
Despite that, Tehran still carried out what he described as a “treacherous attack” on GCC states.
He expects Gulf countries to pursue a dual track, backing de-escalation while strengthening defenses and expanding security partnerships. The Gulf, he said, rejects “incomplete deals” that fail to change Iran’s behavior or ensure regional security.
Seat at the table
Gulf security specialist Dhafer Al-Ajmi said GCC participation in any US-Iran talks on regional security is a “sovereign right,” not a request.
“We will not accept having our future shaped in our absence. Our seat at the table is the only guarantee for real and lasting peace,” he said.
Al-Ajmi said Gulf states have borne the brunt of the war’s costs and tensions. Their participation, he said, aims to secure binding guarantees to protect livelihoods and stability.
Any deal that ignores sovereignty and non-interference would be “incomplete and doomed to fail.”
Political analyst Ibrahim Raihan said Gulf states, while showing “wisdom” in handling the crisis, support de-escalation in principle. But he said the root problem remains Iran’s conduct, particularly violations of Gulf sovereignty, despite efforts before the war to avert conflict.
Three demands
Raihan said both Iran and Israel are seeking to widen the war. He outlined three priorities for any negotiations: de-escalation, guarantees to protect shipping routes, and a clear Iranian apology to neighboring Arab states for violations of their sovereignty.
Separately, the United Nations Human Rights Council on Wednesday condemned Iranian attacks on Gulf states as “egregious” and called on Tehran to provide swift compensation to those affected.
