Oil Prices Rally, Stocks Mixed after Trump's Latest Iran Threat

FILE PHOTO: A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and a 3D printed oil pipeline are seen in this illustration taken March 23, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and a 3D printed oil pipeline are seen in this illustration taken March 23, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo/File Photo
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Oil Prices Rally, Stocks Mixed after Trump's Latest Iran Threat

FILE PHOTO: A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and a 3D printed oil pipeline are seen in this illustration taken March 23, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and a 3D printed oil pipeline are seen in this illustration taken March 23, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo/File Photo

Oil prices rose Tuesday while equities were mixed as investors assessed Donald Trump's latest deadline for Iran to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz or be "decimated".

As the Middle East war entered its sixth week, the US president warned Tehran that its civilian infrastructure would be destroyed if it did not let ships through the waterway, through which a fifth of global crude and gas passes.

The remarks came as he and Iran said a proposal touted by international mediators for a 45-day ceasefire was not yet ready, AFP reported.

Trump told a news conference that "the entire country" of Iran "could be taken out in one night and that night might be tomorrow night", if his ultimatum to reopen the Strait by 0000 GMT Wednesday was not met.

"We have a plan... where every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12 o'clock tomorrow night, where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again," Trump said, brushing aside accusations that such a move would be a war crime.

"I mean complete demolition by 12 o'clock, and it'll happen over a period of four hours -- if we wanted to."

The threat came after a profanity-laced social media post on Easter Sunday in which he vowed Iran would be "living in Hell" if it didn't reopen the Strait.

Tehran said that if such an attack went ahead, it would retaliate by striking energy infrastructure in the Gulf, which could deal a further blow to already thin oil supplies and hammer the global economy.

Both main oil contracts rose Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate topping $115 -- its highest in a month -- and Brent sitting around $111.

Equity markets fluctuated, with Tokyo, Singapore, Manila and Jakarta down while Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington and Taipei rose. Hong Kong was closed for a holiday.

That followed a positive start to the week on Wall Street.

"Financial markets are oscillating in a narrow, uneasy range as traders sized up the countdown to Donald Trump's Iran deadline," wrote Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.

"Tentative ceasefire optics (were) offering brief relief but never fully offsetting the lingering risk of escalation," he added.

"For now, the rhetoric has tightened, the threats sharpened, and yet the market is not capitulating, conditioned by repetition to expect de-escalation just before the edge.

"Traders are no longer reacting to what is said, but to when it is usually walked back."

The hit to fuel supplies from the Middle East has forced governments around the world to unveil economic support measures amid fears of another spike in inflation.

On Tuesday, the Philippines said inflation jumped to a forecast-topping 4.1 percent in March, its highest level in nearly two years.

US figures last week showed growth in the country's services activity cooled last month as companies monitored the higher energy prices and braced for supply chain disruptions.

In company news, Samsung rallied around one percent after estimating first-quarter profit soared 755 percent to an all-time high of $37.9 billion thanks to strong sales of chips crucial for artificial intelligence.

It also said sales were expected to surge 68 percent on-year to hit $88 billion in January-March.



Saudi Arabia Emerges as Global AI Hub as Tech Firms Base Regional Operations in Riyadh

The SAS pavilion at the Global AI Show in Riyadh. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The SAS pavilion at the Global AI Show in Riyadh. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia Emerges as Global AI Hub as Tech Firms Base Regional Operations in Riyadh

The SAS pavilion at the Global AI Show in Riyadh. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The SAS pavilion at the Global AI Show in Riyadh. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia is no longer preparing for the age of artificial intelligence; it is helping shape it. After designating 2026 as the Year of AI, the Kingdom has evolved from a promising market into a major technology hub, attracting global companies eager to establish regional operations.

Reflecting that momentum, US data and AI company SAS selected Riyadh as its regional headquarters for the Middle East and North Africa a year ago. Founded in 1976, SAS is marking its 50th anniversary this year and is among the world’s leading providers of predictive analytics, data management, and machine learning solutions, serving industries including energy, finance, and healthcare.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the Global AI Show, held in Riyadh on June 29-30, Khaled Moussa, Senior Customer Account Manager at SAS, said Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 has accelerated the adoption of advanced and sophisticated technologies.

He noted that the Kingdom’s modern digital infrastructure has enabled increasingly complex technological operations, fueling demand for SAS solutions and those of other technology firms across multiple sectors.

“The remarkable growth taking place in Saudi Arabia is attracting significant attention in the United States and beyond,” Moussa said. “That has encouraged international companies to make serious commitments to the market because of its rapid adoption of intelligent technologies.”

Although SAS has operated in Saudi Arabia since 1984, he added, “the market has reached a new level of maturity, both in terms of regulation and technology adoption.”

Moussa said SAS maintains a strong presence across several strategic sectors, particularly energy, through its collaboration with Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest energy company.

The company also works with the Saudi Electricity Company, providing advanced forecasting tools to predict electricity demand and support long-term planning, helping improve operational efficiency and future preparedness. SAS also supplies analytical solutions for the water sector to strengthen sustainability efforts.

Moussa highlighted two areas where predictive analytics deliver particular value. The first is market forecasting, where SAS helps organizations anticipate trends and make data-driven decisions while reducing unnecessary costs. The second is predictive maintenance, which allows industrial operators to identify potential equipment failures before they occur, minimizing downtime and avoiding costly repairs.

He also underlined SAS’s long-term commitment to developing Saudi talent. The company partners directly with universities to offer six-month paid internships, equipping students with practical experience before they enter the workforce.

In addition, SAS extends its training initiatives to schools and universities, teaching students how to apply AI technologies and preparing them for future careers.

The Global AI Show brought together more than 100 experts and global leaders from 80 countries, including government officials, innovators, and digital transformation specialists.

The event attracted more than 10,000 participants, 100 exhibitors and sponsors, and coverage from 200 international media organizations, reinforcing Riyadh’s growing role as a global platform for AI policymaking and international technology cooperation.


China Factory Activity Returns to Expansion Riding AI Global Boom

 A man stands next to a poster of a humanoid robot during the China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE) in Beijing on June 25, 2026. (AFP)
A man stands next to a poster of a humanoid robot during the China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE) in Beijing on June 25, 2026. (AFP)
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China Factory Activity Returns to Expansion Riding AI Global Boom

 A man stands next to a poster of a humanoid robot during the China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE) in Beijing on June 25, 2026. (AFP)
A man stands next to a poster of a humanoid robot during the China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE) in Beijing on June 25, 2026. (AFP)

China's factory activity returned to expansion in June, driven by demand for chips, computers and other AI-related products, as robust export orders and front-loading to the United States to get ahead of tariffs offset weakness elsewhere in the economy.

The data suggest global AI investment is providing an important cushion for manufacturers in China's $20 trillion economy, even as disruption from the Middle East conflict and a prolonged property slump continue to weigh on broader growth.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in June from 50.0 in May, according to a survey by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It beat a median forecast of 50.0 in a Reuters poll.

"Exports to meet international demand for chips and other AI-related products, as well as front-loading to get ahead of new US Section 301 ‌tariffs due late ‌July and improved domestic demand due to lower upstream costs underpinned the improvement," said ‌Dan ⁠Wang, China director ⁠of consultancy Eurasia Group.

The number of domestic infrastructure projects ticked up over the last month too, she added. US retailers have brought forward orders from China by four to six weeks to secure their inventories for Black Friday and Christmas holiday sales before the expected tariff hikes later this year, shipping executives said.

The sub-index for new export orders returned to expansion in June, rising to 50.1 from 48.6, while the production and overall new orders gauges edged up to 51.4 and 51.2 from 51.2 and 49.9, respectively.

Factory gate prices slipped to 48.2 from 51.9 in May, however, following five months of expansion, with ⁠employment also continuing to trend downward.

"The export strength is set to continue, driven by ‌global AI investment demand," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence ‌Unit. "Second, more policy easing will come."

"For example, fiscal spending has lagged behind budget arrangements, and it should accelerate in the coming months. There ‌is also room for monetary easing," he added.

The non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, improved to 50.2 ‌versus 50.1 in May, while the composite PMI came in at 50.6 compared with 50.5 a month earlier.

AI BOOM OR BUST

With the property crisis showing little sign of stabilizing and household spending remaining subdued, policymakers face the challenge of managing a two-speed economy.

There is enormous international demand for semiconductors powering data centers and advanced electronics, playing to China's manufacturing strengths, but there does not seem ‌to be much demand for anything else.

Exports of furniture, for example, grew just 1.9% in value terms year-on-year, according to the latest trade data for May, while shipments of ⁠automated data processing equipment ⁠jumped 60% over the same period.

Furthermore, retail sales, a proxy for domestic demand, fell for the first time in over three years, the most recent data for May showed, along with a faster slump in new home prices.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China Economics at Capital Economics, said the improvement "remains heavily dependent on exports and AI-related tech," and warned that "despite the improvement in activity, the manufacturing sector appears to be slipping back into deflation."

China has set a 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5.0%, slightly below last year's 5% expansion.

With signs of precautionary buying in the wake of Middle East-related price pressures fading, input costs rising and overseas customers running down inventories while awaiting a ceasefire, Chinese manufacturers may increasingly need demand from the world's largest consumer market to regain momentum.

A closely watched meeting in May between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, however, produced no meaningful breakthroughs, whether on tariffs or Beijing using its influence over Tehran to end the Iran war.

"The sluggish data from the past few months will likely result in a notable slowdown in second-quarter GDP," said Lynn Song, chief economist for China at ING.

"We're looking for a slowdown to 4.6% year-on-year, with risks slightly balanced to the downside."


EU's Side of US Trade Deal to Come Into Force on July 1

FILED - 03 June 2024, Berlin: FILE PHOTO - The European Union flag flies in the wind. Photo: Sebastian Gollnow/dpa
FILED - 03 June 2024, Berlin: FILE PHOTO - The European Union flag flies in the wind. Photo: Sebastian Gollnow/dpa
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EU's Side of US Trade Deal to Come Into Force on July 1

FILED - 03 June 2024, Berlin: FILE PHOTO - The European Union flag flies in the wind. Photo: Sebastian Gollnow/dpa
FILED - 03 June 2024, Berlin: FILE PHOTO - The European Union flag flies in the wind. Photo: Sebastian Gollnow/dpa

The European Union's side of a trade deal struck with the United States last year, which will remove import duties on many US goods, will come into force on July 1, said a formal European Union regulatory filing.

The EU said this ⁠regulation would apply ⁠from July 1 until December 31, 2029, Reuters reported.

"Where appropriate, the Commission shall submit together with the comprehensive assessment a legislative proposal to extend ⁠the period of application of this Regulation," added the regulatory filing.

Under the agreement, the EU agreed to remove import duties on US industrial goods and provide preferential access to US farm produce.

It will also extend duty-free imports of ⁠US lobster, ⁠a mini-deal struck with Trump during his first term as president.

The EU legislation expires at the end of 2029 and includes multiple safeguards that would allow the EU to suspend concessions if the United States breaches the trade deal's terms.