Analysts Say Iran is Drowning in its Own Oil

FILE PHOTO: Iranian flag overlayed with a rising stock graph and 3D printed gas pump miniature are seen in this illustration taken June 23, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Iranian flag overlayed with a rising stock graph and 3D printed gas pump miniature are seen in this illustration taken June 23, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
TT

Analysts Say Iran is Drowning in its Own Oil

FILE PHOTO: Iranian flag overlayed with a rising stock graph and 3D printed gas pump miniature are seen in this illustration taken June 23, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Iranian flag overlayed with a rising stock graph and 3D printed gas pump miniature are seen in this illustration taken June 23, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The US naval blockade is having significant impact on oil flows in Iran, which is running out of places to store its own crude and only about 22 days of capacity left to avoid a crippling production shutdown.

With shipments falling sharply and fuel reservoirs nearly filled, Iran’s storage capacity crisis poses a prominent threat to the country's infrastructure.

Analysts say the country could soon run out of space to store oil — forcing deeper production cuts and potentially triggering long-term damage to its energy system.

According to data firm Kpler, The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg, the blockade has cut exports by roughly 70%, forcing Iran to revive derelict sites known as “junk storage,” using improvised containers and trying to ship crude by rail to China.

The unusual steps are aimed at delaying an infrastructure crisis and blunting Washington’s leverage in the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Since early April, with the imposition of the naval blockade on Iranian ports, the volume of oil loading onto tankers has dropped from 1.85 million barrels per day in March to only 567 thousand, according to a Bloomberg report.

And despite reports saying some tankers have evaded the blockade, data from Kpler and The Wall Street Journal said no ships have successfully escaped the US blockade of Iranian ports, with officials stating that vessels had been turned back or complied with redirection orders.

Chabahar Port, located east of the Strait of Hormuz and outside the Arabian Gulf, is a critical backup gateway for Iran to circumvent strait-related risks. However, satellite imagery confirms that around six to eight Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) are anchored off the coast of Chabahar in the Gulf of Oman, where the tankers serve as “floating oil storage” unable to break the US blockade.

To manage the crisis, Iran is using new ways to store excess oil that it cannot sell due to the blockade. Tehran has activated the 30-year-old supertanker Nasha for emergency oil storage near Kharg Island.

According to Kpler, the accumulation of oil at sea is substantial. Iran currently holds around 184 million barrels of crude in floating storage, with 60 million barrels trapped within the blockade zone and the remainder located near major Asian trading hubs.

Last week, the US Navy said it forcefully intercepted and turned away two VLCCs.

Iran's onshore crude inventories have risen by about 4.6 million barrels since the blockade to nearly 49 million barrels, according to Bloomberg.

While total storage capacity is estimated at around 95 million barrels if additional northern refinery tanks are included, Kpler said operational constraints, safety limits, and geographic factors mean a significant portion of this capacity may not be practically usable.

This means that Iran has just 12 days of onshore capacity storage left, rising to about 22 days including floating storage, before it is forced to cut production of up to 1.5 million barrels a day as soon as mid-May.



India Turns to Latin American, African Oil After Hormuz Disruption

 A worker holds a nozzle to pump fuel in a vehicle at a petrol pump in New Delhi, India, May 19, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker holds a nozzle to pump fuel in a vehicle at a petrol pump in New Delhi, India, May 19, 2026. (Reuters)
TT

India Turns to Latin American, African Oil After Hormuz Disruption

 A worker holds a nozzle to pump fuel in a vehicle at a petrol pump in New Delhi, India, May 19, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker holds a nozzle to pump fuel in a vehicle at a petrol pump in New Delhi, India, May 19, 2026. (Reuters)

Indian refiners turned to imports from Latin America and Africa after supplies from the Middle East were disrupted as the Israeli-US war on Iran restricted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, data provided by trade sources show.

Refiners in the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer bought most of their crude from the nearby Middle East until the war broke out at the end of February.

In April and May, Indian refiners raised imports ‌from Venezuela, Brazil, Angola ‌and Nigeria to make up the shortfall, as well ‌as ⁠continuing to buy ⁠Russian oil, preliminary data from Kpler show.

Last month, India skipped purchases from Iraq as exports were halted, while it received Iranian oil after a gap of seven years following a temporary waiver granted by Washington to help stabilize global oil prices.

New Delhi reduced imports from Russia by about 29.4% from March to 1.6 million barrels per day as Nayara Energy shut its 400,000-bpd ⁠refinery for maintenance, the data showed.

However, in May, ‌India is due to get about ‌1.9 million bpd of Russian oil and about 41,000 bpd of Iraqi oil, preliminary data ‌from Kpler showed.

Overall, India imported 4.57 million bpd oil in ‌April, unchanged from March, but down 15.5% from a year earlier, the data showed.

Imports from the United Arab Emirates rebounded in April to 669,700 bpd from 230,600 bpd in March while intake of Saudi Arabian oil stayed at about 619,500 bpd, ‌the data showed.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are the only Gulf producers with pipelines that export crude bypassing ⁠the Strait ⁠of Hormuz, while Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and Bahrain rely on the waterway for shipments.

The share of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including the UAE as its member during the month, in India's imports rose to 45.2% in April from about 30% in March, the data showed. The UAE exited OPEC in May.

Higher imports from the UAE helped arrest a decline in the Middle East's share of India's imports, while the share of Russian oil declined to about 35% from nearly 50%.

Russia remained India's top oil supplier, followed by the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Brazil was the fourth-largest supplier, while Venezuela ranked fifth. Venezuela is on course to become the fourth-largest supplier in May, Kpler data showed.


Asian Shares Mostly Gain and Oil Prices Fall After Trump Says Peace Talks on Iran War Are Proceeding

 People walk in front of an electronic stock board showing Japan's Nikkei index at a securities firm Monday, May 25, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)
People walk in front of an electronic stock board showing Japan's Nikkei index at a securities firm Monday, May 25, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)
TT

Asian Shares Mostly Gain and Oil Prices Fall After Trump Says Peace Talks on Iran War Are Proceeding

 People walk in front of an electronic stock board showing Japan's Nikkei index at a securities firm Monday, May 25, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)
People walk in front of an electronic stock board showing Japan's Nikkei index at a securities firm Monday, May 25, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)

Asian shares mostly rose Monday and oil prices plunged after US President Donald Trump said talks on ending the war with Iran are progressing.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 surged 2.8% to 65,130.03. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4% to 8,692.00. The Shanghai Composite gained 0.8% to 4,143.97.

Trading was closed in South Korea and Hong Kong for local holidays. Markets will be closed in the US on Monday for Memorial Day.

Trump said negotiations with Iran were “proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner.” Meanwhile, regional officials told The Associated Press on Sunday that the United States is close to reaching a deal with Iran that would end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and see Iran give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium,

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz will help decide the direction of oil prices. The closure has prevented oil tankers from exiting the Gulf and delivering crude to customers worldwide. Japan, for instance, imports almost all its oil, most of it through the strait.

“Markets are rapidly transitioning from pricing geopolitical fear toward pricing a potential peace dividend as Hormuz reopening expectations pressure oil and the dollar lower,” analyst Stephen Innes said in a commentary.

Early Monday, benchmark US crude was down $5.52 at $91.08 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, sank $5.56 to $97.08 a barrel.

In currency trading, the US dollar declined to 158.91 Japanese yen from 159.16 yen. The euro cost $1.1639, up from $1.1605.

Friday on Wall Street, stocks finished their eighth straight winning week, the best such streak since 2023. That’s even though a survey showed US consumers are feeling even worse about the economy than before.

The S&P 500 added 0.4% and pulled closer to its all-time high set in the middle of last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.2%.

Recent earnings reports from US companies that topped analysts’ expectations also helped markets. But worries about inflation have pushed bond yields higher worldwide.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down to 4.56% Friday from 4.57% late Thursday, but it remains well above its 3.97% level from before the war.


Vessels Carrying Middle East Oil, LNG Exit Hormuz, Head for Pakistan, China

Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, May 22, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, May 22, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
TT

Vessels Carrying Middle East Oil, LNG Exit Hormuz, Head for Pakistan, China

Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, May 22, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, May 22, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

Two liquefied natural gas tankers are exiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, heading to ‌Pakistan and China, while a supertanker with Iraqi crude for China left the Gulf on Saturday after being stranded for nearly three months, shipping data showed.

The US-Israeli war on Iran that began on February 28 has severely curtailed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one-fifth of the world's supply of oil and LNG normally flows.

The vessels are among a handful of supertankers exiting the Gulf this month via a transit route ⁠that Iran has ordered ships to use. Last week, three Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) made their way to China and South Korea with 6 million barrels of crude, according to Reuters.

LNG tanker Fuwairit is crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Monday and is expected to discharge its cargo in Pakistan on Tuesday, shipping data on LSEG and Kpler showed. The vessel, sailing under the Bahamas flag, loaded LNG at Qatar's Ras Laffan port around March 28.

Separately, the VLCC Eagle Verona, which exited the strait on Saturday, is expected to reach Ningbo port in eastern China on June 12 to discharge its cargo, ⁠shipping data on LSEG and Kpler showed.

The Singaporean-flagged vessel chartered by Unipec, the trading arm of Asia's largest refiner, Sinopec, loaded nearly 2 million barrels of Basrah crude around February 26, according to the data.

The Eagle Verona was among seven ships Malaysia had sought ⁠permission from Iran to transit, two sources earlier told Reuters. Five of the ships have since exited the waterway, while two more remain in the Gulf.

Before the war began, shipping traffic through the strait averaged 125 to 140 daily passages. Some 20,000 seafarers remain stranded inside the Gulf on board hundreds of ships.