Asharq Al-Awsat has learned that an Iraqi committee comprising three senior figures is close to finalizing an “executive plan” to disarm armed factions, ahead of presenting it to US officials in the coming days.
As the process coincides with expected changes in the leadership of key security agencies under the incoming government, political and government officials ruled out the possibility that the plan would go beyond “buying time,” while representatives of three factions insisted they “will not surrender their weapons.”
Washington has intensified pressure on the ruling Shiite parties to disarm armed factions and prevent their representatives from participating in the new government. These pressures are expected to translate into practical measures as the formation of the next government in Baghdad approaches.
Negotiations on Disarmament
The committee, whose existence is being disclosed for the first time, includes Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi, outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Amiri. According to sources, the committee has held secret negotiations with militia leaders, presenting them with “ideas on how to disarm and integrate fighters,” although some meetings “did not proceed calmly.”
Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that al-Amiri’s presence, given his longstanding ties to Iran, “was supposed to help build trust with the factions and persuade them to engage with the state,” adding that the committee had been fully authorized by the Coordination Framework.
A climate of mistrust and mutual accusations prevails between Shiite party leaders and armed factions, the sources said, predicting that Zaidi’s government could face serious obstacles preventing it from implementing fundamental reforms related to weapons and financial resources that Washington says are deliberately being funneled to Iran through various channels.
Zaidi has enjoyed unprecedented support from the US administration since being formally tasked with forming a government. However, many believe the American “honeymoon” could end if no meaningful progress is made in reducing Iranian influence and severing militia ties to the Iraqi state.
A phone call last Wednesday between US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi reportedly signaled that Washington wants militia elements removed not only from senior ministerial posts, but also from positions at the level of director-general.
Sources said people close to Zaidi understood from the call with Hegseth that, from Washington’s perspective, the legitimacy of the new Baghdad government would depend on its ability to distance militias from the machinery of the state.
A senior political official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the committee had accelerated its work under mounting US pressure, noting that security advisers had been working for months on various options for disarmament or integration, but that the pace had intensified in recent weeks.
The official said the executive plan includes disarming factions of heavy and medium weapons and restructuring the Popular Mobilization Forces, without specifying how the process would be carried out.
Uncertainty continues to surround the future of the PMF in Iraq, particularly whether it will ultimately submit to US pressure and become part of the disarmament project.
A Plan to “Buy Time”
Iraqi politicians say General David Petraeus may visit Baghdad this week to ensure that “the new government fully severs its ties with militias.” It has not been possible to verify the official capacity Petraeus would hold during the expected visit to Baghdad.
Petraeus is considered one of the leading US commanders associated with the Iraq war after 2003. He gained extensive field and strategic experience, most notably as commander of the 101st Airborne Division during the invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.
His later experience also positions him to play a role in the factions’ weapons matter. In 2004, he was tasked with training local security forces amid escalating sectarian violence and worked closely with political leaders, some of whom headed militias at the time, including Hadi al-Amiri.
Iraqi sources suggested that the “executive plan” being prepared by the committee “may offer promising ideas to convince the Americans of Zaidi’s seriousness regarding disarmament, but there are doubts over whether it will actually be implemented, and it may amount to little more than an attempt to buy time, enough to secure passage of Zaidi’s government while waiting for the Iran-US war to end.”
A prominent Shiite adviser said: “Stalling on the issue of factional weapons will end with the ruling alliance being classified as a political group supporting terrorism. For Iraq, this would mean awaiting severe economic sanctions as a rogue state.”
Zaidi’s government program consists of 14 points, headed by “restricting weapons to the hands of the state and enforcing the rule of law.” However, it also includes a clause on “developing the combat capabilities of the Popular Mobilization Forces and defining its responsibilities and role within the military structure.”
An Iraqi official told Asharq Al-Awsat that “Washington does not want to loosen its grip on Baghdad to prevent armed faction leaders and members from infiltrating the new government.”
‘We Will Not Surrender Our Weapons’
In response to the tougher US position, some armed factions are adopting a more hardline stance. A spokesperson for one faction said that Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, and Harakat al-Nujaba reject handing over their weapons to any party whatsoever.
The spokesperson, who requested anonymity, said the three factions were “prepared to pay any price resulting from their refusal to disarm.”
Sources said the armed factions do not believe they are compelled to relinquish their weapons. Instead, they view potential US consequences as unlikely to be harsher than what occurred during the previous war, including assassinations and the destruction of infrastructure.
“The war showed us how more power can be gained,” the faction spokesperson said.
Within the Coordination Framework, questions are being raised about whether Washington seeks to isolate all militias from state institutions, including those that have begun adopting rhetoric less centered on weapons and already hold seats in the Iraqi parliament.
These groups, led by Asaib Ahl al-Haq, are exploring alternative formulas for participating in the new government by reviving a model previously used during Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s administration: backing figures described as independent for ministerial positions while maintaining indirect influence over those posts.
US Treasury sanctions announced Thursday targeted figures involved in oil smuggling, including Laith al-Khazali, brother of Asaib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali, who has reportedly at times been considered for the Interior Ministry and at others for a service ministry.
The sanctions also included Ali Muaredh al-Bahadli. Informed sources said “a political faction had nominated him for the position of Iraqi oil minister.”
Politicians from the Coordination Framework said the sanctions may have been intended to “block undesirable nominations and steer the process toward other candidates.”
Although the disarmament negotiations appear in essence to be discussions about repositioning armed groups in a way that does not provoke American anger, according to one Iraqi official, that does not mean changes will not occur.
The official said the new government would witness security appointments aimed at reducing factional influence over sensitive institutions, including the intelligence service, which is likely to be headed by a Sunni figure.
