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Oil Slips after Trump Says Talks with Iran are Ongoing

An oil rig operating in an oil field in the Permian Basin, Texas, USA (Reuters)
An oil rig operating in an oil field in the Permian Basin, Texas, USA (Reuters)
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Oil Slips after Trump Says Talks with Iran are Ongoing

An oil rig operating in an oil field in the Permian Basin, Texas, USA (Reuters)
An oil rig operating in an oil field in the Permian Basin, Texas, USA (Reuters)

Oil prices trended lower on Tuesday following the previous session's sharp gains as the market remained cautious about progress in US-Iran peace talks.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday talks with Iran were ongoing, while Tasnim news agency reported earlier that Tehran had suspended indirect negotiations with Washington.

Brent crude futures lost 75 cents, or 0.79%, to $94.23 a barrel at 0434 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate fell 85 cents, or 0.92%, to $91.31 a barrel.

Both benchmarks rose more than 5% in the previous session, having posted a monthly loss of more than 16% in May on hopes of a ‌peace deal.

"While markets ‌had hoped to move past the uncertainty amid prospects of ‌a ⁠potential deal, nothing ⁠appears to have changed for oil as of this morning," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Trump said he did not mind if the talks were over. But shortly after, he issued a social media post saying talks with Iran were continuing and told ABC News that he expected a deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz “over the next week”.

"The ⁠market is currently focused on whether there's any concrete progress or ‌setbacks in US-Iran negotiations, the tone and substance ‌of statements from both sides (particularly Iran's threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz), and actual physical tanker movements ‌through the waterway," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

The status ‌of the US-Iran negotiations at any given point will ultimately determine whether the current risk premium stays embedded in oil prices or starts to unwind, Waterer added.

Lebanon on Monday announced a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, in what would amount to a limited de-escalation of a conflict ‌that has inflamed the broader war with Iran.

Iran has effectively halted nearly all non-Iranian shipping into and out of the Gulf ⁠since the ⁠war began, choking off about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows and driving prices up by 50% or more.

US crude exports climbed to a record 5.6 million barrels per day in May as the Middle East crisis pushed up demand for the country's oil from Asian and European refiners, ship tracking estimates showed on Monday.

According to a preliminary Reuters poll released on Monday, US crude stockpiles are expected to have fallen by about 3.6 million barrels in the week ended May 29, extending the prior week's draw, while distillates and gasoline inventories also are likely to have declined.

Shipping executives meeting in Athens on Monday said that any peace deal worked out between the US and Iran would need to offer clear rules allowing vessels to resume normal business via the Strait of Hormuz.

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Business

Gold Heads for Biggest Weekly Loss in Six as Middle East War Fans Inflation Worries

16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. (dpa)
16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. (dpa)
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Gold Heads for Biggest Weekly Loss in Six as Middle East War Fans Inflation Worries

16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. (dpa)
16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. (dpa)

Gold was on track for its biggest weekly loss in six on Friday, as escalating US-Iran clashes lifted oil prices, adding to inflationary pressures and strengthening the case for higher US interest rates.

Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,002.39 per ounce by 0624 GMT, having touched its lowest since July 1 earlier ‌in the day. US ‌gold futures for August delivery gained ‌0.4% ⁠to $4,006.10.

The metal has ⁠lost 3% so far this week, its largest decline since June 1, with the Middle East conflict outweighing support from softer June US inflation figures released this week.

"Gold is making tentative steps higher today after the sight of the metal slipping below $4,000 attracted some bargain hunting," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at ⁠KCM Trade.

However, "geopolitical risks in the Middle East ‌are still present, with inflation and yield ‌concerns being the dominant forces holding gold back," Waterer said.

Oil prices ‌have climbed about 12% this week as the escalating US-Iran conflict ‌raised supply concerns.

The surge in oil prices risks reigniting inflation worries and increasing the likelihood of interest rate hikes. Non-yielding gold typically struggles in a high-interest-rate environment, as investors gravitate towards assets offering higher returns.

Dallas Federal ‌Reserve President Lorie Logan became the first of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's new colleagues to ⁠call publicly for ⁠a rate hike.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also suggested he would be open to raising rates if there is no near-term improvement in inflation.

Traders are pricing in a 73% chance of a rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Gold discounts in India widened to a one-month high this week as hopes of lower prices kept buyers on the sidelines, while premiums in China were largely steady.

Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.6% to $55.83 per ounce, while platinum lost 1% to $1,602.02 and palladium eased 0.4% to $1,244.84. All three metals were headed for a weekly loss.

Business

Al-Jasser to Asharq Al-Awsat: Saudi Arabia is a Vital Artery for Global Trade

One of the agreements signed at Jeddah Islamic Port. Asharq Al-Awsat
One of the agreements signed at Jeddah Islamic Port. Asharq Al-Awsat
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Al-Jasser to Asharq Al-Awsat: Saudi Arabia is a Vital Artery for Global Trade

One of the agreements signed at Jeddah Islamic Port. Asharq Al-Awsat
One of the agreements signed at Jeddah Islamic Port. Asharq Al-Awsat

Saudi Minister of Transport and Logistics Services Saleh Al-Jasser told Asharq Al-Awsat that the recent crisis involving the Strait of Hormuz demonstrated the Kingdom's strong infrastructure and substantial investments, many of which have been implemented in partnership with the private sector.

He said the crisis also highlighted the flexibility of Saudi Arabia's logistics system and its ability to respond to changing circumstances by redirecting trade flows as needed, stressing that the Kingdom serves as a vital artery for global trade.

His remarks came during the signing of several agreements at Jeddah Islamic Port, including the launch of Bahri Logistics' bonded storage zone. The facility belongs to Bahri Logistics, a business unit of Saudi shipping firm Bahri, and was inaugurated in cooperation with the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority and the Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani).

Al-Jasser said Saudi Arabia has been undergoing a rapid logistics transformation since Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman launched the National Transport and Logistics Strategy.

He noted that the current regional crisis provides a real opportunity to assess the progress made since the strategy's launch, adding that it has clearly demonstrated the sector's enhanced preparedness.

Al-Jasser explained that before 2023, most of Saudi Arabia's trade activity was concentrated on the Kingdom's western coast, with approximately two-thirds of trade passing through eastern ports.

However, disruptions in the Red Sea during 2023 prompted the transfer of a significant share of Saudi trade to the eastern coast. With the emergence of the latest regional crisis, trade has now been redirected back to the western coast.

He stressed that this logistical flexibility benefits not only Saudi Arabia's own trade but also that of neighboring countries, adding that reforms implemented across the sector are now beginning to produce tangible results.

Commenting on the newly established truck logistics zone, Al-Jasser said it reflects the speed of response and the integrated coordination between the transport sector, customs authorities, and the private sector.

He explained that the sharp increase in the number of ships and trucks created the need for the facility, which is designed to improve logistics efficiency, particularly as operational capacity has expanded significantly.

The new zone will streamline truck entry and exit procedures, provide a safer and more organized environment for truck drivers, improve traffic management, and reduce congestion caused by the tens of thousands of trucks entering Jeddah Islamic Port each day.

Al-Jasser also announced the signing of seven contracts for new logistics zones at the port.

Among them is the largest overseas investment by Chinese company JD Logistics, which will establish operations inside the port.

Another agreement covers a logistics project in the Al-Khumrah area south of Jeddah, while five leading Saudi companies have also signed agreements to develop additional logistics zones.

He noted that the number of logistics zones across Saudi ports has now reached 34, supported by approximately SAR15 billion in private-sector investments.

Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) President Suliman Al-Mazroua told Asharq Al-Awsat that additional investments are expected in the Al-Khumrah area as part of a major economic zone designed to attract further investment, noting that several promising opportunities are currently under development.

Al-Mazroua said the real value of logistics hubs lies not simply in serving as cargo transit points, but in the integrated services they provide, transforming Saudi ports into value-added platforms that enhance the competitiveness of global supply chains.

He explained that shipping companies increasingly choose to call at Jeddah Islamic Port because of the value-added services offered by its logistics centers, which remain the port's primary competitive advantage.

Al-Mazroua added that Jeddah Islamic Port has evolved beyond being merely a point of arrival and departure for ships. It has become a preferred destination for international shipping companies thanks to its advanced logistics infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia now operates 34 logistics centers, including 17 located within Jeddah Islamic Port itself, underscoring the port's central role in the Kingdom's national transport and logistics network.

The newly inaugurated bonded logistics zone is Bahri's first fully integrated logistics facility of its kind. It offers a range of advanced logistics solutions that support Saudi Arabia's ambition to establish itself as a global logistics hub capable of attracting cargo, facilitating international trade, and strengthening global supply chains.

Business

Dollar Set for Weekly Drop as Traders Trim Wagers on Rate Hikes

A person is counting dollars in La Paz, Bolivia, 10 July 2026. (EPA)
A person is counting dollars in La Paz, Bolivia, 10 July 2026. (EPA)
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Dollar Set for Weekly Drop as Traders Trim Wagers on Rate Hikes

A person is counting dollars in La Paz, Bolivia, 10 July 2026. (EPA)
A person is counting dollars in La Paz, Bolivia, 10 July 2026. (EPA)

The dollar held steady on Friday but was poised for a weekly decline as a tame US inflation report this week led traders to cut bets on imminent rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, although escalating attacks in the Middle East soured sentiment.

Iran and the United States exchanged intensifying fire in a week-long escalation that has largely unraveled last month's truce, spurring safe haven bids for the dollar and leading oil prices near one-month highs.

In currency markets, the euro was at $1.1437, set for a 0.2% rise in the week. Sterling fetched $1.3476, on course for a 0.56% gain in the week, its third straight week of gains on fading concerns over Britain's fiscal outlook.

The Japanese yen was fetching 162.39 per US dollar, rooted ‌near the 40-year ‌low of 162.84 it touched at the start of the month. Traders ‌remained ⁠wary of official ⁠intervention from Tokyo after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated the government's readiness to take decisive action.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other units, was at 100.72, set for a weekly drop of 0.24%. The index hit a one-month low earlier this week on easing chances of a near term rate hike but safe-haven flows have helped support the greenback.

"The USD remains the highest-yielding safe-haven currency in the G10 complex," OCBC strategists said in a note.

"Near-term FX price action is likely to continue reflecting the 'USD smile' framework, under which ⁠the greenback tends to outperform when markets price either stronger US growth ‌and higher rates or a rise in global risk aversion," they ‌wrote.

Data on Thursday showed US retail sales rose slightly in June as lower gasoline prices weighed on receipts at ‌service stations, but online spending surged, prompting economists to upgrade their second-quarter growth estimates.

The economy's resilience was ‌underscored by other data also showing labor market stability. Economists believe the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged later this month after data showed consumer price inflation had cooled in June.

Karen Manna, portfolio manager for fixed income at Federated Hermes, said: "It is far too early to conclude that a renewed disinflation trend has taken hold or that inflation ‌concerns have been fully resolved."

Policymakers are also wary of banking too heavily on one month of improvement after months when inflation moved in the wrong direction.

Chances ⁠for a Fed hike ⁠in July stood at 11%, versus a 25% implied probability last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Traders are pricing in 26 basis points of hikes by December.

"I don’t think July is live for rate hikes," said Tani Fukui, senior director of global economic and market strategy for MetLife Investment Management. "We expect neither rate hikes nor cuts in 2026."

In other currencies, the Australian and New Zealand dollars were poised for a third straight week of gains. The Aussie was 0.24% softer on the day at $0.6981 as risk-off sentiment prevailed. The kiwi was at $0.5838.

China's yuan weakened from a one-month high against the dollar, but remained on track for its third straight week of gains.

Markets mostly shrugged off comments from President Donald Trump after he renewed accusations that China meddled in US elections, a move that could complicate his fragile truce with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Investor focus next week will be on the policy decision from the European Central Bank where it is expected to hold interest rates steady, according to a Reuters poll. But a rate hike next month is increasingly likely, economists say.