How Did Tehran Enter the Palestinian Arena?

The Story of the Iranian Roar, from Khomeini's Storm to Sinwar's flood (Final Part)

A photo released by Iran's Nour News of a previous meeting between Khamenei and Sinwar
A photo released by Iran's Nour News of a previous meeting between Khamenei and Sinwar
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How Did Tehran Enter the Palestinian Arena?

A photo released by Iran's Nour News of a previous meeting between Khamenei and Sinwar
A photo released by Iran's Nour News of a previous meeting between Khamenei and Sinwar

A compelling story is often enough to send a journalist in search of the man who carries it. The search becomes even more urgent when that man carries two. That was the case many years ago when I set out to find Anis Naccache.

As a young Lebanese activist, Naccache joined Fatah’s student battalion and later worked under the patronage of Khalil al-Wazir — better known as Abu Jihad — a member of Fatah’s Central Committee. My curiosity was piqued when I learned that Naccache had served as an aide to the famed Venezuelan militant Carlos the Jackal during the kidnapping of OPEC ministers in Vienna on December 21, 1975. The world had never witnessed an operation of that kind.

Carlos became an international celebrity, much to the annoyance of the man who had dispatched him on the mission — Wadie Haddad, the head of external operations for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. I suspected that speaking with Naccache might also open a path to Carlos himself. It did. But Vienna was only part of Naccache’s story.

When anti-Shah demonstrations erupted in Iran in 1978, Naccache obtained Abu Jihad’s permission to train Iranian opponents of the Shah in camps operated by Fatah in Lebanon. He would later go further. In an interview I conducted with him, he claimed that the idea of creating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was born during a meeting in a Beirut apartment attended by a handful of individuals. The idea was later conveyed to the leaders of the Iranian Revolution, who embraced it on the principle that regular armies could not be trusted.

After the revolution’s victory, Naccache traveled to Tehran.

One day, in a small gathering, participants discussed the danger posed by Shapour Bakhtiar, the Shah’s last prime minister, who was living in exile. Some feared that enemies of the revolution might rally around him to destabilize, or even overthrow the new regime.
 

Former Iranian Prime Minister Shapour Bakhtiar in Paris the day after an assassination attempt against him in 1980 (AFP)
Former Iranian Prime Minister Shapour Bakhtiar in Paris the day after an assassination attempt against him in 1980 (AFP)

According to Naccache, the idea of eliminating Bakhtiar was raised. He revealed that a revolutionary court had sentenced Bakhtiar to death and that Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini had approved the sentence without publicly announcing it, effectively transforming it into something akin to a fatwa authorizing his killing.

Bakhtiar was living in France under heavy protection. Tehran had not yet developed teams capable of conducting foreign operations. Naccache said he volunteered for the mission with a small group. He obtained Bakhtiar’s telephone number, called claiming to be a journalist seeking an interview, and was surprised to receive an appointment. He visited the residence, conducted the interview, and studied the premises and the vulnerabilities in its security arrangements.

On July 18, 1980, Naccache and his team returned to assassinate Bakhtiar. A reinforced door prevented them from reaching their target. The operation left two policemen and a French woman dead. Naccache was wounded and arrested.

Throughout the 1980s, Iran’s demand for his release overlapped with a series of kidnappings of French nationals in Lebanon by shadowy organizations seeking to exchange them for Naccache. After ten years in prison, France eventually struck a deal and released him.

When I asked who in Iran had known about the assassination plan, he replied: “I informed Mohsen Rafighdoost, who was responsible for the Guards’ administrative staff, and Mohsen Rezaei, a member of its command.”

The Lebanese-Palestinian-Iranian overlap would emerge elsewhere. Imad Mughniyeh — known as Hajj Radwan and accused of involvement in attacks against Israelis, Americans, and Arab targets — had for a time served in Yasser Arafat’s security detail before joining Hezbollah, the centerpiece of Iran’s project in Lebanon and the wider region. Naccache told me that he had personally trained Mughniyeh at the latter’s request.

Naccache spoke with fascination and confidence about the Iranian project, and I listened carefully. He said the region would undergo profound transformations and that revolutionary Iran believed its responsibility began with “liberating the Middle East from American occupation, whether direct or disguised.”

According to him, leaders of the Revolutionary Guards believed that “the American thread” was what guaranteed the stability and survival of many regimes in the region, and that cutting that thread would transform the Middle East’s map and balance of power.

When I asked whether General Qassem Soleimani belonged to this camp, Naccache replied that he was among its leading figures and was working systematically to undermine the American presence throughout the region.

“The revolution never concealed its desire to expel America from Iran and from the region,” he said. “The first message was the seizure of the Americans in their embassy in Tehran. The second was the bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut. Hajj Imad helped deliver other messages.”

He also argued that the program of tunnels, missiles, and drones was designed to reduce the strategic value of America’s regional allies by demonstrating that their territory was vulnerable and that alliance with Washington could not guarantee their security.

“If Israel is an American aircraft carrier,” he asked, “what remains of its prestige when every inch of it can be reached by the missiles of the Axis of Resistance?”

Naccache also maintained that Hassan Nasrallah’s personality had earned him the trust of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and elevated him to the role of a partner in shaping Iran’s Arab policies, particularly in countries bordering Palestine.

“Nasrallah and Soleimani,” he underlined, “are closest to the Leader’s heart.”

Perhaps the most striking thing I heard from Naccache was his prediction that “the major blow” was coming. “Sooner or later,” he said, “missiles will rain down on Israel from every direction. Many who emigrated there will regret their decision, and those doubts will open the door to the end of this entity.”

What I heard from Naccache was more explicit than what I later heard in the offices of Islamic Jihad, Hamas, or Hezbollah leaders, though it pointed in the same direction.

Ramadan Abdullah Shallah, the secretary-general of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, was equally convinced that the blow was coming. Khaled Mashaal was more cautious when discussing Iran’s role. Hassan Nasrallah, by contrast, never felt the need to conceal that Iran was Hezbollah’s principal source of weapons, funding, and strategic backing.

The historic handshake between Yasser Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin on the White House lawn following the signing of the Oslo Accords, under the auspices of US President Bill Clinton, in Washington in September 1993 (Getty Images)

Revolutionary Iran and the Palestinian Obsession

From the outset, Khomeini’s Iran sought influence in several regional arenas. None preoccupied it more than the Palestinian arena. Yasser Arafat, however, had no intention of placing the Palestinian cause in the custody of Iran’s revolutionary regime. Nor was he prepared to hand Palestinian decision-making to any power on earth.

To preserve the independence of that decision, he forged alliances, fought battles, and moved from one capital to another, resisting those who sought to turn Palestine into a bargaining chip in negotiations with the great powers. His long struggle with Syrian President Hafez al-Assad belonged to that category. “Palestine is a cause for me,” Arafat used to say. “For Assad, it is a card to be played.”

Arafat quickly concluded that the Iranian Revolution lacked what he described to some aides as “realism, careful calculations, and restraints.” He felt that some of its leaders were guided by illusions, particularly in their underestimation of both the United States and the Soviet Union.

Nor was he prepared to place the Palestinian revolution under the guardianship of Khomeini’s revolution. He sensed that the new Iran would soon find itself in conflict not only with its neighbors but with more distant powers as well.

Arafat’s appearance in Tehran six days after the revolution’s victory was historic, but it did not lead him to pledge allegiance to Khomeini as others did. He kept his distance.

When Iranian revolutionaries seized American hostages in the US embassy in Tehran, Arafat explored the possibility of mediation. Tehran rejected the idea. It reacted similarly when he attempted to mediate after the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War. Iran therefore began searching for other Palestinian allies. In time, it also contributed to weakening Arafat’s authority. Then came a development larger than Khomeini’s Iran could comfortably tolerate.

On September 13, 1993, the Oslo Accords were signed. Yasser Arafat shook hands with Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin on the White House lawn under the sponsorship of President Bill Clinton. Arafat had unleashed a second geopolitical earthquake, the first having been launched by Anwar Sadat.

His legitimacy remained intact. His image was inseparable from the first bullet fired by Fatah in the mid-1960s, an act widely credited with reviving the Palestinian cause. Iran felt threatened. It feared losing the bridge through which it hoped to reach the Sunni street and mobilize it against the “Great Satan,” not merely against Israel.

Tehran therefore intensified its investment in Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas. Arafat’s calculations diverged not only from Iran’s but also from those of the so-called camp of “steadfastness and confrontation.”

The hostility directed toward him became intense.

During an interview in Damascus, Ahmed Jibril, secretary-general of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine–General Command, accused Arafat of treason. I asked whether he had ever sent someone to assassinate him.

“No,” Jibril replied, “but every morning I turn on the radio hoping to hear of the birth of a Palestinian Islambouli.”

He was referring to Khalid Islambouli, the man who assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat.

“I Have Lived Longer Than I Expected”

If Iran failed to draw Arafat beneath its mantle, it had greater success among Palestinian Islamists. Dr. Fathi Shiqaqi, the founder and secretary-general of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, opened the first window. The story began when Shiqaqi was a student at Zagazig University in Egypt. During the upheavals of 1978, fellow students asked him to prepare a ten-page paper on the events unfolding in Iran. The assignment captivated him.

He immersed himself in Islamic sources, Khomeini’s writings, and Muslim Brotherhood thought. He emerged convinced that the revolution in Iran was Islamic rather than sectarian.

Instead of a ten-page report, he produced a booklet titled Khomeini: The Islamic Solution and the Alternative. The booklet drew the attention of Egyptian authorities, who imprisoned him. He would later be jailed again and eventually leave Egypt secretly. He was arrested by Israeli authorities in Gaza in 1983 and again in 1986 before being deported from Palestine in August 1988.

The Israelis failed to appreciate that expelling Shiqaqi would strengthen his relationship with Iran and Hezbollah. Tehran welcomed him warmly. Khomeini received him in 1988 and pledged support for Islamic Jihad in both arms and funding. Thus Islamic Jihad became Iran’s first significant breakthrough into the Palestinian arena.

Ghassan Charbel, Editor-in-Chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, during an interview with the late Islamic Jihad leader Ramadan Shalah in December 2002 (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Following the Arafat-Rabin handshake, Shiqaqi contacted Ramadan Abdullah Shallah, who would later succeed him as leader of the movement. At the time, Shallah was living in the United States and pursuing an academic career.

“The time has come,” Shiqaqi told him. Shallah later explained to me that the phrase signaled a decision “to go further in jihadist action.” The era of suicide bombings was approaching.

On January 22, 1995, Islamic Jihad carried out a devastating double suicide attack at Beit Lid near Tel Aviv, killing 20 Israeli soldiers. Rabin vowed to punish those responsible, even if they were beyond Israel’s borders. It was widely understood that he had ordered Shiqaqi’s assassination. Only days later I visited Shiqaqi in his modest apartment in Damascus. “I am still young,” he said immediately. “It is not yet time for my memoirs. We still have much work ahead of us.”

When I asked about Rabin’s threats, he dismissed them.

“I believe I have lived longer than I expected,” he replied. “The blood of martyrs produces more fighters and escalates the confrontation. We are not concerned by such threats. In the end, as Imam Ali said, destiny is the guardian of life’s appointed term.”

The phrase stayed with me. So did the feeling that our first interview might also be our last. Israel does not easily forgive those who target its soldiers. Mossad’s reach is long, and Rabin was not a man likely to leave such a challenge unanswered.

On October 26, 1995, Mossad found Shiqaqi in Malta and killed him as he returned from Libya.

Ramadan Shallah later told me that Israeli intelligence had penetrated Libyan security and discovered the alias Shiqaqi was using: Ibrahim al-Shawish, a secret known only to Shiqaqi and Shallah.

Hassan Nasrallah and Ali Khamenei (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader)

"If He Lives, He Will Become the Khomeini of the Arabs"

In Beirut, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah learned of Shiqaqi's assassination and immediately traveled to Damascus. He met Shallah and advised the movement to select a new secretary-general, just as Hezbollah had done after Israel assassinated its secretary-general Abbas al-Musawi, and to announce the successor's name in the statement mourning the previous leader.

According to Shallah, Nasrallah argued that doing so would help preserve the morale of the resistance camp. But, he added, Nasrallah did not interfere in the selection process itself, as that was an internal Islamic Jihad matter and the movement's allies trusted its choices.

Shallah also recalled that Shiqaqi greatly admired Nasrallah: "I was visiting Beirut at the end of 1989 when Dr. Fathi, may he rest in peace, returned from a Hezbollah event at which Nasrallah had spoken. At the time, Nasrallah was not yet secretary-general but a resistance official. Dr. Fathi spoke about him with tremendous admiration. I expressed surprise at the extent of his admiration, and in the presence of several brothers he said: 'If this man lives long enough, he will become the Khomeini of the Arabs.'"

I asked Shallah which model Palestinian factions drew upon when they began carrying out suicide operations. He replied that they had been inspired by the model pioneered by the Lebanese resistance when Abu Zaynab carried out the bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut.

Hamas and the Road to Tehran

Despite Iran’s successes with Islamic Jihad, its greatest achievement was drawing Hamas into its regional program, exploiting the movement’s need for weapons and funding. Tehran had long sought an opening. Israel inadvertently provided one.

In late 1992, after members of the Qassam Brigades kidnapped and killed an Israeli officer, Israel deported roughly 415 Palestinian activists from Gaza and the West Bank, most of them affiliated with Hamas. Among them were future leaders such as Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi and Ismail Haniyeh.

Lebanon refused to receive them, and the deportees remained for months in the border area of Marj al-Zohour, transforming their tent encampment into a center for meetings, prayers, lectures, and solidarity visits.

The Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah quickly seized the opportunity. They supplied food, medicine, and shelter. As relationships developed, they trained some of the deportees in explosives, secure communications, and combat tactics. Iran saw in Hamas a prize far larger than Islamic Jihad because of its much broader popular base. The relationship did not begin smoothly.

Some Hamas figures remained wary of Iran because of Sunni-Shiite sensitivities. Others hesitated to accept Iranian funding for fear that it would tie the movement to a political agenda rooted in Iran’s revolutionary worldview.

Over time, those reservations faded. Iranian support became institutionalized. When Hamas seized control of Gaza in June 2007 and expelled the Palestinian Authority, Tehran and Hezbollah recognized a major opportunity.

For Soleimani and Nasrallah, an autonomous Gaza offered the possibility of integrating Hamas into the concept of the “unity of fronts” and preparing it to participate in the long-awaited “major blow.”

The relationship would face serious tests, particularly after Hamas leaders left Syria rather than support Bashar al-Assad’s campaign against the uprising. Iranian and Syrian circles attacked Khaled Mashaal, accusing him of abandoning the resistance camp.

Iran reduced its support, though it never entirely severed assistance to the Qassam Brigades. Differences also emerged over Iran’s role in Yemen and allegations of Shiite proselytization there.

Yet Soleimani and Nasrallah remained committed to preserving the Palestinian component of the Axis of Resistance.

Gradually, relations recovered. Soleimani rewarded Hamas with an extensive program of financing, weapons transfers, local arms production inside Gaza, and advanced training. In 2012, Yahya Sinwar — released from an Israeli prison the previous year — was elected to Hamas’ political leadership in Gaza. Five years later he became head of the movement in the territory.

That same year, Ismail Haniyeh succeeded Khaled Mashaal as chairman of Hamas’ Political Bureau after Mashaal had held the post for twenty-one years.

The military wing gained increasing influence, particularly through Sinwar’s close relationship with the Qassam Brigades and their commander, Mohammed Deif.

An Iranian woman holds a poster featuring Ismail Haniyeh during his funeral procession in Tehran. The poster also depicts Qassem Soleimani, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, Fathi Shiqaqi, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, Imad Mughniyeh and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (AFP).

Sinwar’s Flood

On October 7, 2023, Sinwar and Deif realized their ambition. They launched what they called “Al-Aqsa Flood.” The following day, Hezbollah found itself under pressure to respond to the message sent by the architects of the operation and joined what it termed the campaign to support Gaza.

The world was startled by Israel’s vulnerability in the opening hours, especially after it became clear that the attack had left more than a thousand Israelis dead and scores taken hostage. But after the initial shock, Israel’s war machine awakened and opened multiple fronts.

Benjamin Netanyahu viewed the operation as bearing unmistakable Iranian fingerprints. The retaliation was severe, from Hezbollah in Lebanon all the way to Iran’s Supreme Leader himself. Sinwar’s Flood altered the face of Gaza and Lebanon. It also contributed to the downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

For the first time, American strikes hit Iranian nuclear facilities. Israeli aircraft dominated the skies over Tehran, while Iranian missiles struck targets inside Israel.

The Iranian roar eventually erupted into war, one that unsettled the region, rattled the global economy, and whose consequences remain unresolved.

 



Israel’s Far-Right Ben-Gvir Seeks New Ground in Election

In this picture taken on October 20, 2026, a torn up election banner for Israel's national security minister's Itamar Ben Gvir far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party is displayed along the side of a highway outside Beit Shemesh in Israel's southern district. (AFP)
In this picture taken on October 20, 2026, a torn up election banner for Israel's national security minister's Itamar Ben Gvir far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party is displayed along the side of a highway outside Beit Shemesh in Israel's southern district. (AFP)
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Israel’s Far-Right Ben-Gvir Seeks New Ground in Election

In this picture taken on October 20, 2026, a torn up election banner for Israel's national security minister's Itamar Ben Gvir far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party is displayed along the side of a highway outside Beit Shemesh in Israel's southern district. (AFP)
In this picture taken on October 20, 2026, a torn up election banner for Israel's national security minister's Itamar Ben Gvir far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party is displayed along the side of a highway outside Beit Shemesh in Israel's southern district. (AFP)

A turbo-charged election campaign by Israel's far-right national security minister has seen gun-shaped keychains distributed to high school students and a promotional video threatening to "put to death" a Palestinian inmate.

His policy pledges include encouraging Palestinians to leave the occupied West Bank and war-ravaged Gaza, as well as enforcing the death penalty on Palestinians convicted of deadly attacks against Israelis.

Days ahead of polls which many Israelis consider crucial to deciding the future character of their country, the divisive influence of Itamar Ben-Gvir -- once considered a provocateur on Israel's extremist fringes -- shows no sign of dimming.

Polls show his Otzma Yehudit, or Jewish Power, party winning eight or nine seats in the 120-member parliament, making it the first time it will win a mandate running as a standalone entity.

In 2022, it was allocated six seats after running on a joint list with other far-right parties.

Ben-Gvir, who has been convicted at least eight times in Israeli courts before becoming minister, on charges including supporting a terror organization and incitement to racism, has become the firebrand face of Israel's far-right -- whose political clout has skyrocketed since joining Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition four years ago.

"In short, he speaks straight. We really love him," 23-year-old Or Nahman told AFP in Jerusalem's bustling Mahane Yehuda market, where a huge banner bearing Ben-Gvir's face hangs over shop stalls.

"We want to fight and vote for a person like this, who serves our ideology and the things we believe in, whether it's the Jewish character of the country, the victory of Israel, strong economic security, whether it's a country where everyone can walk here freely in their land without any fear of anyone," he added.

Nahman's friend, armed with an automatic weapon, smiled in agreement beside him.

As national security minister with responsibility over the police, Ben-Gvir has helped more than 200,000 Israelis gain access to firearms and boasts frequently about the worsening conditions for Palestinian detainees in Israeli jails.

And he has used his place in the cabinet to push the government to take more maximalist positions in Israel's multi-front wars.

He proudly sports a lapel pin in the shape of a hangman's noose after spearheading a death penalty law tailored to apply to Palestinians, popping champagne upon its approval in parliament and celebrating his 50th birthday with a noose-adorned cake.

The lawyer-turned-politician was barred from serving in the military in his youth over his support for extremist right-wing groups.

Now, he says he will demand the defense minister post if Netanyahu's bloc wins again on October 27.

- 'Not a stupid man' -

The upcoming vote is expected to be close, with more than half a million young Israelis due to vote for the first time. Surveys show they overwhelmingly identify as center-right or right-wing.

A poll of 543 first-time voters published by Israeli outlet Ynet showed some 16 percent supporting either Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit or the far-right Religious Zionism party of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

At a mock election event attended by Ben-Gvir and other candidates at a high school near Tel Aviv in September, Otzma Yehudit activists handed out gun-shaped keychains to students -- evoking his liberalization of gun licensing rules.

Footage shared by Ben-Gvir showed dozens of teenage boys dressed in black, cheering and waving the party's flag.

In the run-up to the vote, Ben-Gvir -- who lives in the radical West Bank settlement of Kiryat Arba -- has campaigned in areas outside his traditional support base.

"When you behave like the boss, people respect you," he said at a recent event for English speakers in Tel Aviv, considered Israel's secular, liberal heartland.

Making a heart gesture after walking onto the stage to whistles and applause, Ben-Gvir boasted of demolishing Bedouin homes and cutting food for Palestinian detainees.

"They come in fat and they come out skinny," he bragged, smiling and making a joke about his own weight.

Ben-Gvir recently deleted a heavily criticized AI-generated video showing smiling Palestinians entering an Israeli prison on a conveyor belt, before exiting crying and emaciated.

In October, Israel's elections committee fined the minister over another video showing him confronting a convicted Hamas official in prison and saying he wanted to kill him, ruling that the footage was electoral propaganda.

His latest slew of AI videos included one showing an elderly Palestinian man sitting in the rubble of Gaza before a genie in the form of Ben-Gvir grants his wish to move to Paris. The French government rebuked the video and noted that Ben-Gvir is banned from France.

For punters at the Jerusalem market, the far-right seemed an appealing prospect, although some were concerned by Ben-Gvir's provocative stunts.

"He's too violent," said 42-year-old Shlomo from Ramat Gan, who previously voted for Netanyahu, but this year said he might cast his ballot for Smotrich.

"We need somebody like him," he said, but cautioned that Israel still needed to work with the rest of the world.

Michael, a 37-year-old from Jerusalem, agreed.

"I believe he's not a stupid man, but the fact is he says stupid things to get votes," he said. "It's very effective but it does a lot of damage to Israel's economy and diplomacy."


How Are Ukraine Strikes, Middle East War Driving US Fuel Prices?

A truck is filled with diesel fuel at a gas station on October 16, 2026, in Bayonne, New Jersey. (Getty Images/AFP)
A truck is filled with diesel fuel at a gas station on October 16, 2026, in Bayonne, New Jersey. (Getty Images/AFP)
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How Are Ukraine Strikes, Middle East War Driving US Fuel Prices?

A truck is filled with diesel fuel at a gas station on October 16, 2026, in Bayonne, New Jersey. (Getty Images/AFP)
A truck is filled with diesel fuel at a gas station on October 16, 2026, in Bayonne, New Jersey. (Getty Images/AFP)

Ahead of next month's midterm US elections, Donald Trump has increasingly blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries for surging energy prices back home, which are causing the president political headaches.

However, analysts say the main driver of higher fuel prices remains the US-Iran war.

- Which Russian sites have been targeted? -

Ukraine has intensified its drone attacks on Russia's energy industry over the past 18 months, seeking to cut the Kremlin's revenues and undermine its ability to finance the war.

The strikes have targeted "mostly refineries", Julien Mathonniere, an economist at Energy Intelligence, told AFP.

On average, one Russian refinery was hit every three days during the first eight months of the year, according to the International Energy Agency.

"Russia's net diesel exports fell by approximately 80 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2026, from around 1.05 million barrels per day to just 200,000 barrels per day," said Viktor Kurilov, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

In response to the disruption in domestic fuel supplies, Moscow introduced a ban on diesel exports from July until the end of October.

- Why does this concern Trump? -

Trump has repeatedly condemned the attacks on Russian refineries, saying Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky disobeyed his orders to halt the strikes.

By contrast, Trump has not commented on the intensification in recent months of Russian strikes against Ukrainian territory, which have caused a surge in civilian casualties.

Trump's frustrations come as the Republicans face dim prospects in the November midterm elections, partly because of soaring fuel prices.

US diesel prices at the pump climbed to a record of $6.53 per gallon at the end of September, up from $3.75 per gallon before the war, according to the American Automobile Association.

Energy price rises are also fueling inflation across the economy.

- What is the Middle East role? -

Ukraine's strikes explain "about one-third of the global diesel shortfall, currently estimated at 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day", said Mathonniere.

But "the impact of previous drone strikes (by Kyiv) on global product prices before the Middle East crisis was minimal", James Henderson, a researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told AFP.

Energy exports from the Gulf have plunged since US-Israeli strikes on Iran from February caused Tehran to respond by choking off the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil and gas transit.

At the same time, maritime freight costs have soared and major refining capacity in the Middle East has been hit, adding to upward pressure on oil prices.

- Can prices fall before midterms? -

Relations between Kyiv and Washington soured further this month after Trump announced a controversial agreement with Moscow to lift certain sanctions and allow Russian diesel imports, supposedly to ease prices.

The US president said Wednesday that he believed an end to the Russia-Ukraine war could be closer than ever, as the Kremlin said it was willing to restart trilateral talks with Kyiv and Washington next month.

For now, however, the strikes continue.

"There's not much that can be done in the very short term to lower diesel prices," said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

Even if the Russia conflict ended or an energy ceasefire was reached, the impact "wouldn't really move the needle massively for the US midterm elections", he added.

Repairs to damaged infrastructure take time, while continued hostilities in the Middle East drive energy prices higher.


‘Generational Rage’: Young Europeans Fight to Be Heard

 Demonstrators take part in a protest organized by student collectives and trade unions in Paris, France, October 22, 2026. (Reuters)
Demonstrators take part in a protest organized by student collectives and trade unions in Paris, France, October 22, 2026. (Reuters)
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‘Generational Rage’: Young Europeans Fight to Be Heard

 Demonstrators take part in a protest organized by student collectives and trade unions in Paris, France, October 22, 2026. (Reuters)
Demonstrators take part in a protest organized by student collectives and trade unions in Paris, France, October 22, 2026. (Reuters)

From blockaded schools in Rome to tent camps in Madrid and street protests in France, young people across Europe are turning their anger on a political class they say is not listening.

Their demands vary, but they are united in wanting to make their often marginalized voices heard, sometimes even with radical methods in the face of heavy-handed policing.

"We are fighting and taking our future in our hands," said Damiano Fusa, 18, a student at Rome's Cavour high school, the first to be occupied in a wave of student takeovers that has spread across the Italian capital.

"We're not represented by anyone," Fusa told AFP, criticizing both Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's hard-right coalition and previous center-left governments for cutting education funding and ignoring young people's needs.

Hundreds of thousands of high school and university students have rallied in France, Italy, Spain and other European countries in recent weeks, with some protests descending into violence.

Governments have largely focused on restoring order, with France imposing partial curfews and Italy deploying soldiers, responses protesters say obscure their demands and could make things even worse.

"Politicians are responding in ways that are completely disconnected from reality, completely absurd," said Luis Marques, a 19-year-old psychology student in Lisbon.

Students are demanding action on soaring rents, more spending on education instead of defense and more job opportunities for young people.

But experts say the unrest reflects a broader sense among many young Europeans that they have been shut out of politics and sidelined.

"These young people do not just feel like they do not have a place in politics, they feel they are not being heard at all," said Geoffrey Pleyers, president of the International Sociological Association.

Rosario Forlenza, a professor at Rome's Luiss University, called it a "European generational revolt" rooted in a social and economic crisis "to which politicians cannot give a substantive response".

"Young people are a minority of the population that is shrinking and so their social, economic, cultural, political and electoral weight is becoming ever more irrelevant," he said.

- 'Inspiring other people' -

The anger has been particularly palpable in France and Italy, where fresh demonstrations are planned for Saturday.

"People are very angry, they've had enough. Working hard all day and still not being able to fill up their shopping cart," a 20-year-old student who gave his name as Eddy told AFP at a protest in Bordeaux last weekend.

"Will smashing everything change anything? I think it can be a jolt to wake up the politicians. We don't know what else to do to make ourselves heard. The ballot box? We don't believe in it anymore," he said.

Protest movements across Europe are increasingly drawing inspiration from one another, and even looking to youth-led movements further afield in places like Bangladesh, India and Nepal.

In Italy, one student slogan last week urged protesters to "do as in France", while shared symbols, including the Jolly Roger pirate flag, have become common across youth rallies.

Marcos Navarro, 22, a laboratory quality-control technician from Madrid, said protesters across Europe were meeting to share tactics.

"They've come to ask us: 'How did you do it? How do you organize yourselves?' We've already exchanged ideas," said Navarro, who has been camping with hundreds of others in Madrid's central Puerta del Sol square since September to protest housing costs and evictions.

Ayla Herrero, a 26-year-old anthropologist helping at the camp's infirmary, said it was "inspiring for us to know that we're inspiring other people, that it doesn't just stay here".

- 'Not acceptable' -

Concern about the rise in military spending in Europe following the Russian invasion of Ukraine has also been a rallying point.

Nikos Mavroudis, a 17-year-old high school student in Athens' Exarchia neighborhood, said the money could be better spent on his school, where chunks of plaster are falling.

"It's not acceptable for classrooms to be dangerous," said Mavroudis, who hopes to become a cook and plans to move elsewhere in Europe to "countries where things are better".

At Rome's occupied Morgagni high school, where students have barricaded entrances with desks, protesters pointed to the crumbling infrastructure as evidence of neglect.

An 18-year-old, who did not want to be named, said the media and politicians in Italy were focusing too heavily on looting and vandalism by some protesters.

"It turns hatred against the students who are victims of this system," he said.

Asked about the violence, Sabrina Brizzola, 24, coordinator of the Italian University Students' Union, said organizations like hers should "organize and channel this generational rage".

"We have shared concerns, even if our ways of protesting differ," she said.