UK Economy Shrinks in April as Middle East War Hits

People hold umbrellas in Piccadilly Circus, in London, Thursday, June 11, 2026.(AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali)
People hold umbrellas in Piccadilly Circus, in London, Thursday, June 11, 2026.(AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali)
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UK Economy Shrinks in April as Middle East War Hits

People hold umbrellas in Piccadilly Circus, in London, Thursday, June 11, 2026.(AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali)
People hold umbrellas in Piccadilly Circus, in London, Thursday, June 11, 2026.(AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali)

Britain's economy contracted in April as the Middle East war hit growth, official data showed Friday, dealing a setback to Prime Minister Keir Starmer as he grapples with a fresh political crisis.

Gross domestic product fell 0.1 percent in April following growth of 0.3 percent in March, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement.

Surging energy prices triggered by the war, which began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, have reignited inflationary pressures and threatened to derail growth.

"Before the conflict in the Middle East, growth was higher than expected and inflation was falling," finance minister Rachel Reeves said in response to the figures.

"This is not a war we wanted or joined, but one that will have an impact at home," she said.

Britain's defense and armed forces ministers quit Thursday in a row over military spending, piling pressure on Starmer who is facing calls to step down.

Defense Secretary John Healey resigned warning that Starmer's long-awaited Defense Investment Plan (DIP) for funding over the next decade -- which the leader has yet to publish -- risked making Britain "less safe.”

In the evening Al Carns became the second senior figure in defense to quit, resigning as armed forces minister, along with Healey aide Pamela Nash.

The resignations weaken Starmer's authority at a precarious moment, a week before a by-election that could prompt a bid to replace him.



Dollar Steadies as Traders Weigh Prospects for Iran Ceasefire

A US $100 dollar bill is seen on December 17, 2009. (Reuters)
A US $100 dollar bill is seen on December 17, 2009. (Reuters)
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Dollar Steadies as Traders Weigh Prospects for Iran Ceasefire

A US $100 dollar bill is seen on December 17, 2009. (Reuters)
A US $100 dollar bill is seen on December 17, 2009. (Reuters)

The dollar found its footing on Friday after sliding the previous day as traders waited for confirmation that a ceasefire deal in the Middle East could be imminent.

The euro bounced around and was last very slightly higher at $1.158, near its strongest in a week after the European Central Bank's first interest rate hike in three years on Thursday.

The US dollar was up 0.1% against Japan's currency at 160 yen, keeping it around a key level at which traders tend to get nervous about intervention from Tokyo.

The British pound fell very slightly to $1.341. Data showing the economy contracted in April appeared to have little impact, with the focus on Iran ‌talks.

US President Donald ‌Trump said on Thursday the United States and Iran could ‌sign ⁠a peace deal ⁠as soon as this weekend that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. Brent crude slid 3.6% to $87 a barrel on Friday.

Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency said on Friday the memorandum, which contained US commitments to lifting sanctions and its naval blockade, required finalization by the relevant authorities.

Yet analysts and investors sounded a skeptical note, saying potential breakthroughs have previously failed to materialize.

"There's a question around the hopes of a deal, ⁠and questions around whether it will be met and agreed upon ‌by Iran and the United States," said Michael ‌Wan, senior currency analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group in Singapore.

"It sounds like it's quite ‌close, but they're not exactly at the finish line."

The US dollar index, which ‌measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was flat at 99.68 after slumping to its weakest in a week on Thursday.

Investors have flocked to the safe-haven dollar when tension in the Iran war has flared, and sold it to buy stocks when peace talks ‌have appeared to make progress.

"For today, the market will again be headline-driven. Will Vice President JD Vance be getting ⁠on a plane ⁠to Europe to sign some kind of agreement?" asked Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.

"And more importantly, will we receive confirmation from Iran that it is happy with a deal and will also be sending a delegation to Europe this weekend? Expect the dollar to be bounced around."

Data on Thursday showed US producer prices increased more than expected in May, ahead of Kevin Warsh's first rate-setting meeting as chair of the Federal Reserve next week.

Traders expect the Fed to keep rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%but see a more than 50% chance that it raises them by the end of the year, with pricing pulled slightly lower on Thursday by Trump's comments about a potential deal.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up 0.1% at $63,430 but down 13% for the month so far.


Gold Set for Weekly Loss as Inflation, Rate-Hike Fears Persist

Gold bangles are displayed inside a jewellery store in the old quarters of Delhi, India, May 11, 2026. (Reuters)
Gold bangles are displayed inside a jewellery store in the old quarters of Delhi, India, May 11, 2026. (Reuters)
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Gold Set for Weekly Loss as Inflation, Rate-Hike Fears Persist

Gold bangles are displayed inside a jewellery store in the old quarters of Delhi, India, May 11, 2026. (Reuters)
Gold bangles are displayed inside a jewellery store in the old quarters of Delhi, India, May 11, 2026. (Reuters)

Gold prices fell on Friday and were on track for a weekly loss, pressured by concerns around inflation and potential US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

Spot gold was down 0.7% at $4,183.19 per ounce, as of 0745 GMT, and was set for a weekly loss of 3.4%. US gold futures for ‌August delivery rose ‌2.2% to $4,204.40.

Gold fell to a more than ‌six-month ⁠low on Thursday ⁠before closing higher at $4,219.69, after US President Donald Trump called off planned military strikes on Iran and signaled an imminent peace deal. However, Iran countered that it had not reached a final decision on an agreement.

The price is "completely being driven by the geopolitical headlines," said Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex.

"The markets will ⁠be paying attention to any signal that ‌the Fed could raise rates, and ‌if they hint at moving in that direction, I think gold could ‌probably break below the $4,000 mark."

Gold has lost about 20% since ‌the Iran war began, on fears that rising energy costs could spur inflation, prompting central banks to keep interest rates higher and raising the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.

US producer prices increased more ‌than expected in May, leading to the largest annual gain in 3-1/2 years as the conflict ⁠drove up ⁠the cost of energy products.

Traders are currently pricing in a 60% chance of a US rate hike in December, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, fell about 0.3% to 923.89 metric tons on Wednesday. ANZ lowered its year-end price target for gold by $400 to $5,200 to reflect recent price volatility.

Spot silver fell 1.8% to $66.13 per ounce, and platinum lost 0.3% to $1,715.44, with both metals headed for a weekly loss. Palladium rose 1.6% to $1,289.75, and has gained about 5% for the week so far.


Iran’s Oil Production Slumped Due to US Blockade, Closure of Hormuz

The logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, November 30, 2023. (Reuters)
The logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, November 30, 2023. (Reuters)
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Iran’s Oil Production Slumped Due to US Blockade, Closure of Hormuz

The logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, November 30, 2023. (Reuters)
The logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, November 30, 2023. (Reuters)

Iran's oil supplies have registered a sharp decline since the tightening of the US naval blockade and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has also paralyzed the movement of oil and slashed exports by Gulf producers, the monthly report of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revealed on Thursday.

Iran’s crude oil production slumped by 19% last month, according to data from OPEC, while the US blockaded the country’s ports during their ongoing conflict.

Iran was the primary contributor to last month’s sharp decline. The cartel reported that Iranian output fell by 19%, or 546,000 barrels, to 2.33 million.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has also affected collective regional figures. Crude oil production by OPEC declined by 177,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May compared with April, driven mainly by a sharp drop in Iranian output, while the group maintained expectations for stronger global oil demand growth in 2026.

Total OPEC crude production averaged 33.13 million barrels per day in May, down by 185,000 daily barrels from the previous month.

The 11-member group trimmed its forecast for global oil demand growth this year to 970,000 barrels per day, citing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. OPEC had predicted 1.17 million barrels in the previous report.

Meanwhile, OPEC maintained an optimistic outlook for the near future, betting that post-shock energy demand will rapidly rebound.

It raised its 2027 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.73 million bpd, up from the previous projection of 1.54 million bpd.

OPEC's June 2026 monthly report described the global economy's first-half performance as resilient despite the geopolitical environment, leaving its macroeconomic growth forecasts unchanged alongside the demand revision.