Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has been sending positive signals to Washington ahead of a planned mid-July visit, as analysts say his government is trying to reorganize ties with the United States based on an economic and security partnership while preserving relations with Iran.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington had recently received good and constructive signals from the Iraqi government on armed factions, in a reference to efforts to place weapons under state control and disarm armed groups.
In his latest remarks carried by state media, al-Zaidi urged armed factions to “preserve their history after contributing to the fight against terrorism, and to work through the state,” renewing his government’s rejection of “weapons outside official institutions.”
Al-Zaidi said his government sought a “strong economic partnership” with the US, while stressing that Baghdad’s ties with Tehran were “based on good neighborliness, respect and common interests, as is our relationship with all countries of the region.”
“Iraq does not accept dictates from any party, and the decision will always be made according to the interests of Iraqis first,” he said, adding that his government’s strategic direction was built on “a strong partnership with the US, starting from Iraq’s interest, and not at the expense of any other party.”
He said Iraq “does not follow a policy of blocs or hostility, and wants to be a space for communication and stability, not an arena for conflict,” in a reference to US-Iranian competition in Iraq.
On Iraq’s regional ties, al-Zaidi said the “Gulf Arab states represent a historical, cultural and social depth and a source of strength for Iraq.”
Balancing Iran
Al-Zaidi’s expected visit to Washington comes as Baghdad seeks to reshape its relationship with the US while maintaining balanced ties with Iran, amid regional shifts that followed this year’s Israel-Iran war.
Iraqi researcher Muhanad Seloom said al-Zaidi “is clearly seeking a strong partnership with the US at all levels,” calling the approach “good.”
Seloom said there was popular support for fighting corruption and restricting weapons to the state, giving the government the basic tools to move ahead despite the complexity of the issue of militias.
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Seloom described Iranian as “negative.” He added that it was not in Iraq’s interest to enter into hostility with Iran, and that the US understood the special nature of Baghdad’s relationship with Tehran.
The ‘project to eliminate militias’
Political science professor Talib Muhammed Karim said al-Zaidi “is not going to Washington carrying a project to eliminate militias in the military sense, but rather a project to strengthen the state and restore its legitimate monopoly over the use of force.”
Karim told Asharq Al-Awsat that the wager was to build an internal consensus, backed by regional and international support, that would allow weapons to be gradually restricted to the state under the law.
He said Iranian influence was not confined to the security sphere, but extended to political, economic and social ties built up over more than two decades.
Reducing that influence, he said, would not come through a political decision or external pressure alone, but through stronger Iraqi state institutions, a more diversified economy and broader Arab and international partnerships. That, he said, would automatically reduce the impact of any outside influence.
Karim said the success of the Washington visit “will not be measured by whether there is a confrontation with armed factions,” but by Iraq’s ability to secure US and international backing for the state project, attract investment, strengthen the economy and expand security cooperation in ways that reinforce state sovereignty.
A shifting US view
Political science professor Abbas Abboud Salem offered a different reading, saying Iraq’s political system “cannot be reduced to the will of one person.” The post-2003 political scene, he said, is built on multiple competing political forces.
Salem told Asharq Al-Awsat that the silence of these forces does not mean they have given al-Zaidi a mandate to radically change Iraq’s policy.
What has changed most, he said, is the US view of Iraq. According to Salem, Washington moved from direct occupation to managing Iraq after the withdrawal as a zone of influence balanced with Iran, and then to seeking a return through direct influence amid regional geopolitical shifts.
Salem said these shifts were pushing Iraq to rebuild its alliance with the US in response to regional challenges and to reduce losses as the regional order is being reshaped.
