Lebanon Under Pressure to Dismantle the Parallel Economy and Exit the FATF Grey List

A Cabinet session chaired by President General Joseph Aoun at Baabda Palace (Lebanese Presidency).
A Cabinet session chaired by President General Joseph Aoun at Baabda Palace (Lebanese Presidency).
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Lebanon Under Pressure to Dismantle the Parallel Economy and Exit the FATF Grey List

A Cabinet session chaired by President General Joseph Aoun at Baabda Palace (Lebanese Presidency).
A Cabinet session chaired by President General Joseph Aoun at Baabda Palace (Lebanese Presidency).

The decision by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to keep Lebanon on its "grey list" of jurisdictions with strategic deficiencies in combating money laundering and terrorist financing has not triggered any new repercussions for cross-border financial transactions. Rather, it has served as a warning to the government's executive and monetary authorities that the grace period is nearing its end for completing the legal and procedural measures needed to dismantle the "parallel economy" and curb illicit cash flows operating outside the formal financial sector.

While the devastating consequences of the recent war on the humanitarian, reconstruction and economic fronts have provided mitigating grounds, according to a senior financial official, to explain the slow pace of reforms required from the relevant authorities, particularly administrative, judicial and security bodies, they do not diminish the risks associated with prolonging Lebanon's sovereign stay in an environment of growing suspicion generated by the parallel economy and the continued exploitation of the financial system's persistent fragility.

Intertwined Tracks

The financial official, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, said it is no secret that the political and economic tracks have become deeply intertwined, to the point of running in parallel and perhaps advancing simultaneously. The objectives of establishing the state's exclusive control over arms and restoring the legitimacy of financial and commercial activities now go hand in hand, requiring the authorities to make an explicit commitment to international requirements and conditions that would secure external support to end the war as a first priority and launch the recovery process through the International Monetary Fund, paving the way for Lebanon's safe exit from the catastrophic deterioration of most of its sovereign and financial ratings.

International pressure, from both governments and institutions, continues to emphasize the need to curb illicit financial channels, including designated non-financial businesses and professions as well as certain non-bank financial institutions, particularly those linked to Hezbollah. Foremost among them is Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association, along with similar activities targeted by the international community and international financial institutions.

One of Al-Qard Al-Hasan institution's buildings in Beirut's southern suburbs (file photo- AP)

Positive Assessment of the Legitimate Financial Sector

Despite Lebanon's continued placement on the grey list, the country's legitimate financial sector continues to receive a positive assessment based on an integrated legal and administrative framework that complies with the strictest international standards. Particular recognition has been given to the central bank's measures aimed at rigorously verifying the sources and destinations of funds, restricting cash and electronic payments, financial transactions and transfers to banks and licensed financial companies, and strengthening the judiciary's central role in combating all forms of financial crime.

According to statements by Banque du Liban Governor Karim Souaid, removing Lebanon from the grey list is a top priority because the country cannot play a credible role in the global financial system unless it achieves that objective. He noted that remaining on the list affects not only Lebanon's reputation but also restricts correspondent banking relationships and increases the cost of financial transactions.

Accordingly, the governor stressed that "no honest account of this crisis can ignore the parallel economy, including illicit financial flows, money laundering operations and corrupt practices that have infiltrated and weakened Lebanon's financial system." He also reaffirmed the central bank's firm and non-negotiable commitment to the principles of disclosure, transparency and accountability.

Banque du Liban has already implemented a broad package of measures in line with this approach. These include engaging specialized firms to combat the "parallel economy," deploying advanced financial monitoring tools, strengthening Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements, enhancing due diligence procedures, enforcing beneficial ownership transparency requirements, significantly improving the quality of suspicious transaction reports, and strengthening cooperation with relevant regional and international financial bodies.

People walk outside Lebanon's Central Bank building in Beirut, Lebanon April 4, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Forensic Audit

In coordination with the Ministries of Finance and Justice, the central bank has also launched a forensic audit conducted by Alvarez & Marsal. The firm's mandate extends well beyond reviewing the funds disbursed by the central bank at the request of previous governments to finance the subsidy program. It covers all payments made up to the end of 2023, funds transferred to commercial banks through international transfers, and payments made by the central bank on behalf of the state.

The governor also affirmed that the central bank is cooperating with Lebanese judicial authorities by providing all information and financial analyses permitted by law in support of judicial proceedings. It is likewise cooperating with judicial authorities in Switzerland, France, Germany, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, the United Kingdom and other countries where legal proceedings involving illicitly transferred Lebanese funds are underway.

Lebanese President General Joseph Aoun meets with the Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon in Baabda (X)

Lebanon's Commitments

Under the latest FATF assessment issued at the end of last week, Lebanon has committed at the highest political level to work with the organization to strengthen the effectiveness of its anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing framework, despite the country's difficult social, economic and security challenges. This requires continued coordination in implementing the agreed action plan to address the identified strategic deficiencies.

The action plan comprises ten key points identified in the Mutual Evaluation Report. The foremost priority is conducting targeted assessments of money laundering and terrorist financing risks and ensuring that the necessary policies and mitigation measures are in place. It also calls for strengthening mechanisms that ensure the effective and timely execution of requests for mutual legal assistance, extradition and asset recovery.

Without ranking them by importance, the authorities are also required to strengthen designated non-financial businesses' and professions' understanding of money laundering and terrorist financing risks and to impose effective, proportionate and dissuasive sanctions for violations of AML/CFT obligations. They must also ensure that beneficial ownership information is continuously updated and that adequate sanctions and appropriate measures are in place to mitigate risks associated with legal persons, particularly companies and other legal entities.

In the same context, the authorities are expected to make greater use of financial intelligence, reports and analytical products produced by the Special Investigation Commission (SIC), while demonstrating a sustained increase, both quantitatively and qualitatively, in money laundering investigations, prosecutions and court judgments in line with the identified level of risk.

The obligations also include improving asset recovery mechanisms and strengthening the ability to detect and intercept the illicit cross-border movement of cash, precious metals and precious stones. Likewise, Lebanon is expected to pursue terrorist financing investigations and strengthen information-sharing with foreign partners regarding such investigations, in accordance with the recommendations of the Mutual Evaluation Report.

In addition, the authorities are required to strengthen the immediate and effective implementation of targeted financial sanctions, particularly among designated non-financial businesses and professions and certain non-bank financial institutions. They must also implement targeted, risk-based oversight of higher-risk non-profit organizations while ensuring that legitimate activities carried out by those organizations are neither disrupted nor discouraged.



China, US Agree to $30 Billion Tariff Cut, AI Dialogue

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 25: US President Donald Trump (R) and President of China Xi Jinping (L) speak as they depart following a tour of the National Archives Museum on September 25, 2026 in Washington, DC. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 25: US President Donald Trump (R) and President of China Xi Jinping (L) speak as they depart following a tour of the National Archives Museum on September 25, 2026 in Washington, DC. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP
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China, US Agree to $30 Billion Tariff Cut, AI Dialogue

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 25: US President Donald Trump (R) and President of China Xi Jinping (L) speak as they depart following a tour of the National Archives Museum on September 25, 2026 in Washington, DC. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 25: US President Donald Trump (R) and President of China Xi Jinping (L) speak as they depart following a tour of the National Archives Museum on September 25, 2026 in Washington, DC. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP

China and the US have agreed to a $30 billion reciprocal tariff-reduction arrangement and to launch dialogue on AI, under an eight-point consensus reached during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the US, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.

The two sides recognized the work of their economic teams and endorsed steps including the establishment of a trade council, the tariff-reduction arrangement and an extension of outcomes from earlier talks in Kuala Lumpur, the ministry said.

The United ⁠States and China ⁠had earlier agreed to extend by two months a trade truce that was due to expire on November 10, allowing more time to work on a potentially bigger trade deal, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday.

The leaders of ⁠the world's two largest economies ended a three-day summit that showcased personal diplomacy rather than big public breakthroughs. Xi has since landed in Beijing, Chinese state media Xinhua reported on Saturday.

On artificial intelligence, the two sides agreed to establish a dialogue to discuss the technology's risks and benefits, with the next round of discussion set for November, and to set up a communication channel for AI-related incidents, according to the ⁠ministry.

They ⁠also agreed to support each other in hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders' meeting and the Group of Twenty summit, with both leaders signaling their intention to attend the gatherings hosted by the other, Reuters reported.

On foreign policy, the leaders agreed that Iran should fulfil its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, and that no country or entity should impose transit tolls on international waterways, the ministry said. They also recalled that China and the United States fought as allies in World War Two.


Gold Rises, but on Track for Weekly Loss as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Build

FILE PHOTO: A raw gold bar is displayed at Nigeria’s booth at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) venue in Shanghai, China, November 5, 2025. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A raw gold bar is displayed at Nigeria’s booth at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) venue in Shanghai, China, November 5, 2025. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo
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Gold Rises, but on Track for Weekly Loss as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Build

FILE PHOTO: A raw gold bar is displayed at Nigeria’s booth at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) venue in Shanghai, China, November 5, 2025. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A raw gold bar is displayed at Nigeria’s booth at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) venue in Shanghai, China, November 5, 2025. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo

Gold prices rose on Friday but was on track for a weekly loss, as rising US Treasury yields and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes weighed on the metal.

Spot gold was up 0.6% at $4,303.19 per ounce by 1210 GMT, but was down about 1.7% so far this week. US gold futures rose 1% to $4,339.

US and Iranian negotiators in New York are seeking a deal that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said.

"Gold finds support today as oil prices pull back on renewed hopes for a US-Iran deal," said Nikos Tzabouras, a senior market analyst at Jefferies-owned Tradu.com.

"That said, the precious metal is heading for weekly losses, as higher Fed rates and bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold."

The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter-point last week, its first hike in three years, and flagged more hikes follow. Traders are pricing in a 71% chance of an October hike and a 95% chance of an increase in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Although gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation, higher rates dampen demand as investors shift to yield-bearing assets.

Gold demand in India picked up modestly this week as lower prices drew in buyers ahead of the festive season.

Oil prices fell, and the dollar eased about 0.3%, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies.

"Lingering deficit fears could revive the debasement trend that drives investors toward hard assets like gold. Alongside persistent central bank demand, the precious metal has a credible case for a strong fourth-quarter recovery, should the macro winds begin to shift," said Tzabouras.

Spot silver gained 1.4% to $64.82 per ounce, platinum added 1.7% to $1,777.38 and palladium fell 0.4% to $1,269.77. All three metals were poised for weekly losses.


Dollar Falls as Oil Eases, Yen Rallies on Japan Remarks

US dollar banknotes (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes (Reuters)
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Dollar Falls as Oil Eases, Yen Rallies on Japan Remarks

US dollar banknotes (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes (Reuters)

The dollar fell on Friday as oil prices eased, but was poised for a second straight weekly advance on growing rate hike bets, while the yen rallied after Japan said Tokyo and Washington remain committed to the stance behind July's joint intervention.

The dollar was on track to snap a four-day streak of gains as crude prices fell more than 1%.

Global oil prices have eased but still they remain above $100 a barrel, maintaining upward pressure on inflation.

Comments from central bank officials flagging inflation concerns and support for more rate increases after last week's rate hike of 25 basis points have boosted market expectations for a more aggressive path of monetary policy and helped spark a jump in US Treasury yields.

"We've had like a pretty aggressive rally in the dollar over the last couple of days and maybe it's a little stretched, just taking a little breather. So I wouldn't really say that the dollar is really weakening materially today," said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp in Stamford, Connecticut.

"It's just a combination of those factors that you have not only a slight increase in odds of a second hike before year-end, but also just general bond yields going up and the market getting a bit concerned about that, so that's really what we have, what's been driving the dollar stronger overall."

DOLLAR INDEX POISED FOR BIGGEST DROP IN THREE WEEKS

The dollar index, which measures the dollar against five other currencies, fell 0.34% and was on track for its biggest daily percentage drop since September 3, to 100.95. The euro was up 0.2% at $1.1402 but on pace for a third straight weekly decline.

Expectations for a rate hike from the Fed at its October meeting stood at about 66%, according to CME FedWatch, up from about 58% a week earlier.

On the data front, new orders for US-manufactured capital goods increased more than expected in August and data for the prior month was revised sharply higher, pointing to another quarter of robust growth in business spending as part of artificial intelligence infrastructure is created.

In a separate report, the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index ticked up to 48.1 from the prior reading of 47.8, above the 47.6 estimate of economists polled by Reuters.

Sterling strengthened 0.24% to $1.3247, supported by hawkish comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Yet it remained close to a three-month low hit on Thursday.

YEN STRENGTHENS AS JAPAN STEPS UP INTERVENTION WARNINGS

The Japanese yen strengthened 1.09%, on pace to snap a four-day streak of declines and its biggest daily gain against the dollar since September 7, to 157.13.

The currency rose after Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said US President Donald Trump raised concern about yen weakness during a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this week.

Katayama said this reaffirmed the shared US-Japan stance behind July's joint intervention, adding she and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would stay in close contact as policymakers stepped up warnings over renewed yen weakness.

Still, the yen was on track for a second weekly fall, after markets judged the Bank of Japan's rate hike last week to a 31-year high and its latest guidance as insufficiently hawkish.

Elsewhere, the dollar strengthened 0.14% to 6.725 versus the offshore Chinese yuan, as a Trump-Xi summit in Washington showed no signs of breakthroughs at a closed-door meeting on thorny issues such as AI, trade, Taiwan and the Iran war.