Gold Retreats as Oil Rises and Inflation Fears Grow

Gold bangles on display at a jewelry shop in Varanasi, India (AFP)
Gold bangles on display at a jewelry shop in Varanasi, India (AFP)
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Gold Retreats as Oil Rises and Inflation Fears Grow

Gold bangles on display at a jewelry shop in Varanasi, India (AFP)
Gold bangles on display at a jewelry shop in Varanasi, India (AFP)

Gold prices slipped on Wednesday as escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to stoke inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations of higher US interest rates.

Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,027.49 per ounce by 0843 GMT. Prices rose over 2% to a session high of $4,100.19 per ounce on Tuesday after soft US inflation data, Reuters reported.
US gold futures for August delivery slid 0.9% to $4,034.00.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened ⁠to close all possible ⁠export corridors benefiting Washington, after Tehran shut the Strait of Hormuz and the US reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Oil edged higher after closing at a one-month high on Tuesday.

"Higher US crude, gasoline and diesel prices will result in high inflation numbers in ⁠the next print in August, that could keep the tone of some Fed officials on the hawkish side, which is not helping gold," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

"In the near-term oil and US gasoline prices will continue to influence gold, as it remains a key driver of US inflation," Staunovo added.

Higher interest rates tend to weigh on gold, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told ⁠lawmakers ⁠on Tuesday the central bank had "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation," hinting that the CPI data was not all swell.

Traders are pricing in about a 59% chance of a rate hike in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Investors now await the US Producer Price Index data due at 1230 GMT today for insights into inflation levels and the monetary policy outlook.

Among other metals, spot silver dipped 0.5% to $58.314 per ounce and platinum gained 0.2% to $1,634.36.

Palladium rose 0.8% to $1,315.05, after gaining 5% in the previous session.



Crude Shipments from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu Port Near Maximum Levels

King Fahd Industrial Port in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia (SPA)
King Fahd Industrial Port in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia (SPA)
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Crude Shipments from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu Port Near Maximum Levels

King Fahd Industrial Port in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia (SPA)
King Fahd Industrial Port in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia (SPA)

Daily crude loadings at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu are close to maximum levels this week, according to data and industry sources.

Shipments from Yanbu reached 4.7 million barrels per day around July 13, up from 3.36 million bpd around July 10 and broadly in line with 4.6 million bpd around July 2, ⁠according to Signal Ocean data.

Loadings have averaged above four million bpd since June, compared with 973,000 bpd around the same period 2025, the data showed.

Kpler data also show daily loadings averaging around four million barrels in recent weeks.

Saudi Arabia has relied increasingly on Yanbu to export crude amid disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Iran conflict.


BP Sees Boost from Energy Prices in Second Quarter, Expects Lower Net Debt

An illuminated BP logo is seen at a petrol station in Gateshead, Britain September 23, 2021. (Reuters)
An illuminated BP logo is seen at a petrol station in Gateshead, Britain September 23, 2021. (Reuters)
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BP Sees Boost from Energy Prices in Second Quarter, Expects Lower Net Debt

An illuminated BP logo is seen at a petrol station in Gateshead, Britain September 23, 2021. (Reuters)
An illuminated BP logo is seen at a petrol station in Gateshead, Britain September 23, 2021. (Reuters)

BP expects its oil trading result to be slightly higher in the second quarter after an exceptionally strong first quarter, as it continues to profit from a surge in oil prices caused by the Iran war.

The British major flagged higher oil realizations said stronger prices were expected to add a $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion boost to earnings in its oil production and operations business compared with the first quarter.

In its gas and low carbon energy segment, realizations are expected to add a further $500 million to $700 million, it said on Tuesday.

Gas trading results are expected to be broadly unchanged from the previous quarter.

Global benchmark Brent crude prices hit multi-year highs and averaged around $97 per barrel during the April-to-June quarter, up from around $78 in the first quarter and about $67 a year earlier.

BP said refining margins averaged $29.6 per barrel, versus $16.9 in the first quarter.

The company expects upstream production to fall in the second quarter to between 2.17 million and 2.22 million barrels of oil equivalent per day from around 2.34 million boed in the previous three months, due in part to the effects of the crisis.

BP expects net debt to stand at $22 billion to $23 billion at end-June, down from $25.3 billion at the end of March, with a target to reduce this further to $14 billion to $18 billion by the end of next year.

The company made a $2.9 billion payment to redeem €2.5 billion of perpetual hybrid bonds, leaving it with a total of about $13 billion outstanding. It also paid $1.1 billion in Gulf of Mexico settlement liabilities.

Overall, BP expects net debt, hybrid bonds and Gulf of Mexico settlement liabilities to decrease by around a combined $6.3 billion to $7.3 billion from the previous quarter.

Exploration write-offs are seen totaling around $500 million in the second quarter, primarily related to the sale of its stake in the Bay du Nord project offshore Canada.


China's Economy Grew at 4.3% Annual Pace in the 2nd Quarter, Slowest Since Late 2022

People walk in the Central Business District (CBD) area in Beijing, China, 15 July 2026. EPA/WU HAO
People walk in the Central Business District (CBD) area in Beijing, China, 15 July 2026. EPA/WU HAO
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China's Economy Grew at 4.3% Annual Pace in the 2nd Quarter, Slowest Since Late 2022

People walk in the Central Business District (CBD) area in Beijing, China, 15 July 2026. EPA/WU HAO
People walk in the Central Business District (CBD) area in Beijing, China, 15 July 2026. EPA/WU HAO

China’s economy slowed sharply to a 4.3% annualized pace of growth in the April-June quarter, the government said Wednesday, the weakest in over three years.

The official data fell short of forecasts and was far below the economy's strong 5% pace of growth in January-March, despite a surge in exports driven partly by the boom in artificial intelligence, and by robust global demand for Chinese electric vehicles.

China has largely shrugged off wider economic impacts from the Iran war as soaring energy prices pushed up global inflation. Exports rose 17.6% in the first half of the year from a year earlier, and 27% in June, according to customs data.

But domestic spending and investment have lagged, limiting the boost from export manufacturing for an economy that has struggled to regain momentum since parts of China were locked down during the COVID-19 pandemic, The Associated Press reported.

“This was the slowest growth in any quarter since the lockdown-impacted fourth quarter of 2022,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank in a note.

Some economists say China’s economy is becoming increasingly unbalanced as heavy state support and private investments pour into frontier technologies like AI, computer chips and robotics while other areas such as lower-value manufacturing and jobs creating services industries languish.

Exports of high-tech products such as electric vehicles, computer chips and other electronic equipment have risen sharply, helped by hefty government support since China’s leaders have made development of advanced technologies a top priority.

China ran a record $1.2 trillion global trade surplus last year, drawing complaints from policymakers in other countries over their trade imbalances with the world’s second-largest economy. Many have pointed to those heavy state subsidies, which they say contribute to an oversupply of manufactured goods that end up being exported overseas.

As is true in many countries, the expansion of AI and robotics has also raised worries at home over whether businesses will create enough jobs to sustain growth in the longer term.

Chinese families have cut back on big purchases, their appetite for spending constrained by a prolonged property slump and uncertainties over jobs and wages.

As China remains reliant on its exports to sustain overall growth, “China’s growth model has become increasingly imbalanced,” said Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics and trade policy at Cornell University. Substantially increasing domestic demand will be tough as confidence remains weak, he added.

Mao Shengyong, deputy head of China's National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters that given the increasingly unstable and uncertain global situation, the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand “remains acute” at home.

As China focuses on high-tech manufacturing and pursues “higher-quality economic growth,” it will work to build a robust domestic market and offer support to keep employment stable, he said.

China’s economy is going through a “significant transition,” said Wei Li, Head of Multi-Asset Investments at BNP Paribas Securities (China).

For the whole of 2026, Chinese leaders have set a growth target of 4.5% to 5%, slower than last year’s 5%. Overall economic growth for the first half of the year was at 4.7%, the data released Wednesday showed.

The International Monetary Fund recently raised its forecast for China’s annual growth by 0.2 percentage point to 4.6%. It expects China’s economy to expand just 4.1% in 2027.