Oil Climbs as Fading US-Iran Peace Hopes Raise Supply Risks

Capuava oil refinery owned by Petrobras sits in Maui, on the outskirts of Sao Paulo, Brazil, Nov. 6, 2023. (AP)
Capuava oil refinery owned by Petrobras sits in Maui, on the outskirts of Sao Paulo, Brazil, Nov. 6, 2023. (AP)
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Oil Climbs as Fading US-Iran Peace Hopes Raise Supply Risks

Capuava oil refinery owned by Petrobras sits in Maui, on the outskirts of Sao Paulo, Brazil, Nov. 6, 2023. (AP)
Capuava oil refinery owned by Petrobras sits in Maui, on the outskirts of Sao Paulo, Brazil, Nov. 6, 2023. (AP)

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as prospects receded for a deal to end the Middle East war, with Iran saying it would adopt a more offensive stance and the United States ruling out extension of a ceasefire deal, heightening worries about energy supply.

Iran will shift to a "fully offensive" military posture as efforts have stalled towards a permanent end to the war, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, as Washington ruled out extending their temporary ‌ceasefire pact.

Brent crude ‌futures climbed 62 cents, or 0.7%, to $91.49 a ‌barrel ⁠by 0408 GMT, ⁠after rising on Monday to their highest since July 30.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 75 cents at $85.25 a barrel, but off an earlier session gain of more than 1% to reach $85.37, their highest since July 31.

Outward progress on peace talks and resumption of oil tanker traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz has halted, threatening to extend the conflict the United States and ⁠Israel launched with attacks on Iran on February 28.

"Oil ‌has jumped to start the week as ‌US-Iran relations look increasingly shaky," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM.

"A deal to ‌reopen the Strait of Hormuz still does not appear to be in ‌sight, and shipping numbers remain at a trickle."

A projectile struck a vessel transiting out of the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday in the latest of the attacks that have kept crossings to the single digits, despite a slight rise from the weekend, ‌tracking data showed.

"The lack of any kind of deal will have an impact on oil price expectations further out in 4Q and even in 2027," said DBS Bank's head of energy research Suvro Sarkar.

While the deal-related uncertainty lasts, he expected oil prices to range within $80 and $100 a barrel in the near term.

Iran has separately been negotiating with Oman an agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz and says they are close to a deal.

US crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week alongside product inventories, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.



Gold Slips on Firmer Treasury Yields, Oil Prices; Fed Minutes in Focus

An employee displays a gold necklace at a jewelry store in Varanasi, India (AFP)
An employee displays a gold necklace at a jewelry store in Varanasi, India (AFP)
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Gold Slips on Firmer Treasury Yields, Oil Prices; Fed Minutes in Focus

An employee displays a gold necklace at a jewelry store in Varanasi, India (AFP)
An employee displays a gold necklace at a jewelry store in Varanasi, India (AFP)

Gold fell on Tuesday, pressured by higher Treasury yields and oil prices, while traders awaited minutes of the US Federal Reserve's July policy meeting for clues on the outlook for interest rates.

Spot gold was down 0.4% to $4,397.42 per ounce, as of 0624 GMT, while US gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.5% to $4,452.90. Yields ‌on the benchmark ‌10-year US Treasury note extended gains, raising ‌the ⁠opportunity cost of holding ⁠non-yielding bullion.

Oil prices edged higher after Iran said it would shift to a "fully offensive" military posture following a breakdown in efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war with the United States, while Washington ruled out extending a temporary ceasefire agreement.

Oil prices will remain one ⁠of the key factors keeping gold under ‌pressure as the situation in ‌the Middle East continues to look uncertain, ANZ analyst Soni ‌Kumari said.

Traders' expectations around Fed policy rates are ‌going to be important for gold, with a focus on technical levels, Kumari added.

Elevated energy prices tend to raise inflationary fears and bolster expectations of higher interest rates. While gold is typically seen ‌as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates tend to diminish bullion's appeal.

However, market ⁠pricing for ⁠a September quarter-point hike flipped to a nearly 65% chance of a "hold" after unexpected job losses in July, lower-than-expected consumer price inflation and weaker retail sales.

Investors are also awaiting minutes of the Fed's most recent policy meeting, with the release scheduled for Wednesday.

Spot gold may test support at $4,381, a break below which could open the way towards the $4,320 to $4,351 range, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Among other metals, spot silver slipped 0.7% to $65.32 per ounce, platinum lost 0.6% to $1,759.63 and palladium dipped 0.6% to $1,325.47.


China’s Fuel Exports Edge Back Towards Levels Before Iran War as Beijing Eases Curbs

People cross a street past highrise buildings in Beijing, China, 17 August 2026. (EPA)
People cross a street past highrise buildings in Beijing, China, 17 August 2026. (EPA)
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China’s Fuel Exports Edge Back Towards Levels Before Iran War as Beijing Eases Curbs

People cross a street past highrise buildings in Beijing, China, 17 August 2026. (EPA)
People cross a street past highrise buildings in Beijing, China, 17 August 2026. (EPA)

China's exports of ‌refined oil products in July fell 12.9% year-on-year but rose 6.7% from the previous month, customs data showed on Tuesday, as the easing of export curbs allowed refiners under pressure to ship more fuel overseas.

The key fuel supplier to Asia curbed exports sharply in March to protect its domestic market from the oil shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Iran war. Beijing eased those controls ‌in July ‌and again in August, when officials approved ‌enough ⁠exports to exceed ⁠pre-war levels.

In July, the latest month for which data is available, refined oil exports, which include diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel and marine fuel, totaled 4.65 million metric tons, up from 4.36 million in June, when exports jumped 29% from May.

Diesel exports are ⁠roughly back to the level of last ‌July after rising 88% ‌month-on-month to 810,000 tons, or about 50% higher than the monthly ‌average last year.

Rising exports are a boon ‌for customers in a tight market. They are also a precondition for the normalization of China's oil imports, which remain well below pre-war levels.

By allowing refiners to export more ‌product overseas, where prices are higher, the sector receives greater incentive to increase output ⁠and, in ⁠time, oil imports.

Exports of other fuels remain below pre-war levels, although rising. Gasoline exports stood at 420,000 tons in July, down 55.3% year-on-year but up 320% from June.

China's aviation fuel exports rose 42% from June to 1.32 million tons in July, but were down 33% from the same period last year.

The data also showed LNG imports rose 2.4% year-on-year to 5.5 million tons in July.

China's LNG imports in the first seven months dropped 4.6% from the same period last year.


PIF Delivers Strong Revenue and Profit Growth in 2025

(PIF)
(PIF)
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PIF Delivers Strong Revenue and Profit Growth in 2025

(PIF)
(PIF)

The Public Investment Fund (PIF) published its 2025 Annual Report, demonstrating strong financial performance and continued progress against its long-term objectives. As a long-term investor with a unique mandate to drive the economic transformation of Saudi Arabia and deliver sustainable financial returns, PIF maintained a diversified portfolio in 2025, balancing returns with national impact and long-term resilience.

In 2025, revenue rose 9% year on year to $120 billion, while net profit more than doubled to $17 billion, supported by stronger contributions from maturing portfolio companies. PIF retained over $900 billion in assets under management and achieved an annualized total shareholder return of 5.8% since 2017, SPA reported.

Total shareholder return in 2025 was positively driven by increased dividends from portfolio companies and returns from financial investments. It was also impacted by downward movements in the valuations of some assets, driven by broader market conditions, while PIF continued to make long-term local investments to drive economic transformation.

PIF demonstrated its access to diversified and efficient sources of funding throughout the year, including issuance of a debut euro-denominated green bond and the establishment of a commercial paper program to provide flexible short-term finance.

PIF continued to hold strong long-term ratings with Moody’s (Aa3, stable outlook) and Fitch (A+, stable outlook) while securing an inaugural A-1 short-term rating from S&P, reflecting PIF’s strong credit profile and reinforcing investor confidence.

PIF launched major new companies in 2025, including HUMAIN, marking a major step in advancing AI capabilities, and Expo 2030 Riyadh Company, to build and operate Riyadh’s Expo 2030 facilities as Saudi Arabia prepares to welcome the world.

PIF also continued to develop priority sectors and ecosystems and deepen private sector participation. From 2021 to 2025, PIF invested more than $199 billion in Saudi Arabia, as it continued to drive the country’s economic transformation.

Chief of Staff and Secretary General to the Board at PIF Maram Aljohani said: “Throughout 2025, PIF continued to drive Saudi Arabia’s economic development and diversification through long-term investments and the launch of strategic companies. PIF contributed 11% of Saudi Arabia’s total non-oil GDP in 2025 and contributed more than $342 billion cumulatively from 2021-2025.

“PIF also expanded its international presence in 2025 through the opening of new subsidiary company offices in Europe and Asia and through targeted investments across key markets, resulting in a 12% growth in its international investments. This progress was underpinned by continued institutional excellence and robust governance frameworks, as PIF accelerated its evolution into a fully digital-native, AI-enabled investment institution and reinforced its position among the world’s leading sovereign wealth funds in Global SWF’s 2025 governance, sustainability, and resilience (GSR) rankings.

“Over the next strategic phase, PIF is evolving towards six interconnected domestic ecosystems to drive sustainable value, while investing internationally in high-conviction opportunities in long-term global trends.”

Chief Financial Officer and Acting Head of Global Capital Finance Division at PIF Yasir Alsalman said: “Building on a sustained period of growth and disciplined investment, 2025 marked another defining year for PIF. In 2025, PIF more than doubled net profit year on year and maintained its strong financial position with over $900 billion in assets under management.

“PIF continued to deploy capital across priority sectors, with cumulative domestic deployment reaching more than $199 billion between 2021 and 2025, while deepening strategic international partnerships, including signing multiple agreements with the world’s leading asset managers, in 2025.

“As we enter the next five-year phase of our investment strategy, PIF will continue to drive sustained value creation, portfolio maturity and stronger financial performance through the six ecosystems of its Vision portfolio, as well as its Strategic and Financial portfolios.”

PIF continued to deploy capital internationally across strategic sectors, including infrastructure, technology, advanced manufacturing, and financial services, while bringing capital, knowledge, and expertise to Saudi Arabia.

In 2025, PIF signed agreements with Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Macquarie Asset Management and SACE, among others, driving capital mobilization and inward investment into Saudi Arabia and expanding PIF’s strong strategic relationships with leading global financial institutions.

To deepen engagement in priority markets, PIF expanded its global presence by opening new subsidiary offices in Paris, Beijing and Shanghai, adding to its existing footprint in London, New York and Hong Kong.

According to SPA, throughout 2025, PIF continued to drive institutional development, embedding advanced data, analytics and AI across its operating model. Throughout the year, PIF launched 100 new digital applications and activated 43 high-impact AI-enabled solutions, while strengthening secure infrastructure and expanding centralized digital platforms that enhance investment insight, operational efficiency, and institutional agility.

Brand Finance, the world’s leading independent brand valuation company, ranked PIF as the most valuable and fastest-growing brand in the world among all sovereign wealth funds, with an A+ rating, for the second consecutive year.

2025 marked the last year of PIF’s 2021-2025 strategy. PIF has now moved into the next phase of its long-term strategy - PIF’s 2026-2030 strategy - focused on delivering competitive ecosystems, unlocking the full potential of strategic assets and maximizing long-term returns.

In this next phase, PIF will continue to deploy capital strategically and at scale to drive long-term value realization, including in domestic ecosystems and high-conviction international opportunities across global themes such as AI, energy transition, advanced manufacturing, and sports and entertainment.