It is time to look at what is happening in the world and the Middle East through a certain logic, one familiar from grand stage productions, exceptional films that run for hours, and even classical operas with their intricate music and plots.
There is no shortage of riveting side scenes that could themselves provide material for a work of art. An Omani co-pilot manages to reach the cockpit of a Flydubai aircraft and stab the Indian pilot, sending the plane plunging toward the ground under the force of gravity, before the door opens and two pilots intervene to save 176 passengers. It sounds like something drawn from the drafts of fiction.
No less extraordinary is the remarkable alignment between the United States and Iran over the timing of the next round of war, which both sides agree will be decisive. The fighting is to begin after the US congressional midterm elections. This is unprecedented in the history of wars and disasters, or so US President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi appear to have agreed.
The United States has announced a further military buildup, with another aircraft carrier joining two others, backed by the firepower of destroyers and frigates, as well as an additional 50,000 troops. Tehran has declared that it is prepared for a prolonged war, as though the current conflict had been short-lived. Yet its repercussions have been devastating, with the Houthis managing to approach the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while launching organized attacks against Saudi Arabia targeting oil, and with it the global economy, fueling inflation and rising prices, until the counteroffensive by the legitimate government and the Kingdom began.
In dramatic works, the main plotlines never disappear. In this war, which has lasted far longer than the four to six weeks President Trump initially spoke of, we are now looking ahead to still more months and weeks. And what of the Gaza war and the war in Ukraine? Will they, too, continue for additional years?
Yet narratives of war do not confine themselves to a single story or trajectory. They generate other stories capable of becoming gripping works in their own right.
Four Arab countries are clinging tenaciously to the goal of building the nation-state: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. These countries have endured bloody and bitter experiences in their pursuit of a national state, navigating ideologies that were at various times “nationalist,” drawing on Arab nationalism, Islam, or Marxist internationalism, only to find themselves engulfed in intense sectarianism.
All have experienced internal and external wars, along with hostility toward the political orders established in the 20th century and the colonial-era divisions that accompanied them. Their experiences became entangled in the thorns of international and regional polarization.
What these countries are undergoing today is an attempt to break free from, and cleanse themselves of, a recent past that failed to appreciate the value of history. The defining theme of this phase is the construction of the nation-state, which cannot take place unless political authority secures the legitimate monopoly over armed force.
The road to success is not impossible. Whether the leadership rests with Prime Minister Ali Falih Al-Zaidi, head of state Ahmed Al-Sharaa, President Joseph Aoun, or Rashad Mohammed Al-Alimi, chairman of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, what places them all in the same phase is the realization that the path to salvation lies in restoring national identity. This, together with ending the duality of armed authority, marks the beginning of a national project for development, progress, and catching up with the contemporary world.
The four leaders have created an Arab political trend that builds upon the major transformations taking place in today’s Arab environment, in which Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states have joined the ranks of nation-states such as Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia.
Meanwhile, other countries remain mired in instability, including Sudan, Somalia, Libya, and Palestine. Here, events are becoming extraordinarily and rapidly complex, with each arena presenting its own circumstances. Amid glimmers of hope, the region is giving rise to different visions and intriguing alliances.
Most painful of all are those developments that bring sorrow and misery, particularly as the “central” Palestinian cause appears increasingly fragmented, to the point that some are seeking to postpone the upcoming elections. Yet these elections may constitute the final opportunity to translate international recognition of a Palestinian state into reality after it has remained, for so long, little more than a well-intentioned aspiration.
Setting a date for the war may not signal its end, not only because of its many ramifications stretching between the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, or between the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea, with the possibility of its expanding into the Horn of Africa, the Arabian Sea, and the Mediterranean.
Wars, after all, are not waged only between states and human groups. When cameras focus on a reality engulfed entirely in fire and flames, a frightening truth emerges: at its core lies the creation of conditions conducive to still more wars.
Europe lived through such critical moments during World War II, while the world experienced them in different forms during the Cold War. Now, in the wake of an unhappy era of globalization, both the world and the region appear poised to provide cinema and theater with tragedies in abundance.
