The organized and systematic campaigns to create chaos in Jordan, under the guise of demands to defend Gaza, have been intensifying since last week. These campaigns, which are clearly visible on social media, remind us of what was mendaciously called the "Arab Spring."
Regional figures and online platforms affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood in the region, and of course Hamas and the Al-Qassam Brigades, have taken part and continue to part in these campaigns. Some regional media outlets that had been presumed to have learned something from the lessons of the past have contributed to these campaigns as well, but that's another story.
Well, why is Jordan being targeted now? I will give a straightforward response. First, what is being done to Jordan is not new. It is the extension of a clear plan that began on October 7, 2023. And Jordan is not the only target; Egypt is another.
Of course, campaigns have also targeted Saudi Arabia. However, the schemes to incite against Egypt and Jordan are different. They are linked to a longstanding aspiration to create chaos in both countries and drag them into Iran’s sphere of influence, with the cause once again being used as the pretext. The goal of the campaigns against Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is to demonize Riyadh, and these campaigns have never stopped.
In Jordan, we are seeing preparations for a post-Hamas Gaza following the losses that the Islamist group has incurred on the ground. Both Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood are apprehensive of the implications of losing a significant front for their bid to exploit the cause for their own ends.
Both Iran and the Brotherhood are facing a real threat. Even if they were to return to a devastated Gaza that needs international and Arab support for reconstruction, this process would not mirror that of previous Gaza wars. The Palestinian Authority would have to be present, and the supporters would demand genuine guarantees that there will not be a repeat of what happened.
Moreover, with Iran fearing that it could potentially lose its Hezbollah front, which Israel has dealt several severe blows, whether in Lebanon or Syria, Tehran is looking to secure an alternative front, namely Jordan, even if creating chaos is required to achieve its numerous crucial objectives.
Should they manage, God forbid, to undermine the security and stability of Jordan Iran and its militias would be presented with an opportunity they have been seeking for a long time: to extend the supply lines from Iran to the Mediterranean through Iraq, Jordan, and Syria, and to ensure that the regime in Damascus is covered from behind.
It would also grant them a foothold on the Saudi and Egyptian borders, which is of paramount importance to Iran. That is their central objective, not opening a front against Israel. Indeed, Tehran uses its militias in the region like pawns in a chess game. It wants to surround and exhaust the moderate states through these militias, which also facilitate the smuggling of drugs and other activities.
Iran has consolidated its influence in Lebanon through the southern suburbs of Beirut and then did the same in Syria through the Damascus suburb of Sayyida Zeinab. According to Rami Abdul Rahman, the head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, it seeks to replicate this model and establish other regional strongholds bordering moderate states.
Moreover, if Jordan were destabilized, God forbid, Hamas and other factions would have an opportunity to reestablish themselves within Jordan, potentially bringing it to ruin, as had happened in Lebanon in the past, and even Jordan itself.
In summary: This is the plan, and anyone who thinks otherwise is mistaken. There is no space for good intentions here, as the road to hell is paved with them. Thus, standing with Jordan and supporting it unconditionally is crucial. In matters of national security, neutrality is a weakness.
