Everyone following the elections in industrialized Western countries can clearly see that these societies are heading toward a deep crisis that will leave governance and administration at a dead end. Indeed, the democratic process has become an end in itself rather than a means for ensuring the public good. When the path of populist appeasement is taken, crises become inevitable.
To explain, let's take the example of two prominent countries: France and the United Kingdom. In the former, the latest elections have left governance mechanisms in gridlock as a result of political polarization. This phenomenon suggests that French society lacks the collective consciousness needed to steer it out of crises, particularly those tied to the economy.
In the UK, the (protest) elections gave Labor a majority. Voters did cast ballots not out of admiration for the Labor Party, whose economic agenda is faltering, but out of hostility to the Conservatives, who have lost their way despite having been considered the party of government.
In both France and the UK, a severe economic crisis has been engendered by politicians. The public debt of France has risen to 110.7% of its GDP; in the UK, it reached 99.8% this year (2024). The UK's public debt to GDP ratio has not been this high since 1961, which is not long after it had lost its overseas possessions. At the time, this made politicians realize that Britain was no longer an empire.
France's economy began to decline after losing many of its colonies. Its influence continues to diminish, as seen recently in West Africa.
Both societies underwent an extremely prosperous phase due to their governments' control, whether directly or through proxies, over the resources of other countries. Nonetheless, populist politicians decided not to confront reality. Instead of doing what was necessary, tightening their belts and aligning their living standards with their productive capacities, they chose denial and living in luxury through mass public debt, which was amassed at the expense of future generations.
The democratic framework has arrived at a formula whereby one must pander to the sentiments of the people in the street to succeed and maintain power. One must brush off all economic wisdom and the axiom that "when debt exceeds 50% of a society’s annual economic output, the alarm bells should be ringing."
Projections indicate that if the French right comes to power and implements the economic policies it has announced, France will face a fate similar to that of Greece, which was hit with a severe economic crisis a few years ago. If it weren't for the intervention of the European market, especially Germany, which saved the Greek economy, Greece would have become a failed state. France's economy is larger, meaning that a bailout would be more challenging.
In the UK, despite the Labor Party promising not to raise taxes on the campaign trail, it certainly will, starting with high-income earners and then gradually expanding the tax rises to lower income brackets. The "honeymoon" with the Labor Party will only last a few months, at which point protesters will take to the streets against the vote on July 4, 2024.
Broadly speaking, Western societies became prosperous in the past due to their possessions overseas, not administrative genius. Even in their wars, they depended on colonial subjects, with the French using Africans and the British using Indians.
The UK's exit from the European market was driven by a populist movement that championed "protecting our borders from foreigners." This move deprived Britain of many economic advantages, such as cheap agricultural labor from Eastern Europe, leading to a surge in costs and lower agricultural output. Britain made the move despite opposition from prominent economic figures, including the Governor of the Central Bank and two prominent former politicians, one who had led Labor (Tony Blair) and another who had led the Conservatives (John Major).
It appears that the new Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, is considering options for establishing some economic links with the European market. However, circumstances have changed, and the terms would be more stringent than before- if the Europeans engage with his requests at all. The UK had enjoyed unparalleled privileges within the European market, but populism has squandered them all.
The lesson to be learned from these difficult experiences may be that nations can no longer live beyond their capacity to generate wealth. Living off of the wealth of others offers only temporary relief, losing its efficacy as soon as the others become aware of the need to safeguard their national wealth.
Politicians ignore this simple fact, financing their spending from the pockets of future generations to maintain their power.
In conclusion:
A politician focuses on the next election, while a statesman focuses on the next generation!
TT
The Crisis of Western Democracy
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