Nouri al-Maliki claims to be “shocked” by the developments in Syria. However, “shock” is not the right word. Instead, it reflects ideological self-delusion—a sentiment shared by many, including intellectuals, media figures, militias, and large segments of the public. They have crafted and believed a narrative sustained by phrases like “a staged play” and “he was sold out.”
In 2009 for example, al-Maliki threatened to prosecute Bashar al-Assad internationally following devastating bombings in Iraq, accusing Assad of terrorism. But when sectarian considerations took precedence, he changed course, concluding that Assad’s survival served his interests, as the man’s downfall would empower what he called the “other terrorists”—the Sunnis.
To grasp the broader picture, we must dispel some pervasive myths. Russia did not “sell out” Assad. Iran did not “sell out” Hezbollah. Hassan Nasrallah did not “sell out” Yahya Sinwar. Instead, fundamental truths have been overlooked due to the region’s obsession with ideological beliefs propagated through media, education, and even by some intellectuals.
Russia has not abandoned Assad. However, it’s bogged down in Ukraine, preparing for a possible Trump return, and strategizing to end the war draining its resources by the summer. Its growing reliance on Iranian drones, North Korean troops, and Houthi fighters underscores the strain it faces. Russia’s role in Syria remains largely aerial, with minimal ground presence.
Iran, similarly, hasn’t abandoned Assad or Hezbollah. However, it has faced significant setbacks due to Israeli dominance. Israel has extracted vast amounts of intelligence on Iran’s nuclear program, dismantled Tehran’s militias and leadership in Syria, and severely weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon. These blows have left both Assad and Hezbollah in a diminished state.
The “pager operation” alone was a testament to an intelligence superiority. Nasrallah’s most recent speech acknowledged that the endgame is near. Simultaneously, Israeli strikes dealt a crippling blow to Iran’s air defense systems. So while Iran hasn’t “sold out,” it’s now more preoccupied with its own survival.
Nasrallah, too, didn’t abandon Sinwar. Instead, Sinwar’s disastrous strategic mistake—the October 7 attacks—sparked a chain reaction that unraveled the “Axis of Resistance.” Nasrallah attempted to juggle conflicting priorities: defending Hamas, safeguarding Iran’s interests, and ensuring his party’s survival—a balancing act that was bound to fail.
The reality is clear: there is a vast military and technological imbalance, heavily favoring Israel, bolstered by robust international—especially American—support. Iran’s weapons and defense systems are more myth than fact. This is why Trump is reportedly considering a strike on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump, after all, ordered Qassem Soleimani’s assassination without facing serious retaliation.
As for Assad’s regime, it has been effectively brain-dead for years, kept alive artificially by external powers and thoroughly infiltrated. Since 2011, I have repeatedly noted that Assad views deceit as a political strategy. This mindset has left him incapable of growth or adaptation, even when receiving global support.
Another truth is that militias across the region are on a path to eventual decline. Their existence is unsustainable. They lack real societal backing despite relentless propaganda and remain heavily infiltrated by Israeli intelligence. Additionally, many key players in the region are aging or overwhelmed by internal crises in their own countries.
If we fail to recognize the vast disparity in military and technological capabilities between Israel and the region, the consequences will be disastrous. Does this mean we should surrender? Absolutely not. Instead, we must rely on our most powerful weapon: reason.
The fall of Assad should be viewed as a historic turning point—one that demands careful analysis. Such moments are rare and may not recur for decades. Our greatest strength lies in rationality. And as the saying goes, when you find yourself in a hole, the first step is to stop digging.
