Opinion polls continue to show General Eizenkot ahead of his closest rival, Benjamin Netanyahu. What is striking about this race is that it pits a novice general seeking admission to the club of Israeli prime ministers against a veteran who has held membership many times and is fighting to avoid being forced out of the club for good.
In Israel, where volatile public sentiment is well known for its ability to overturn poll results, it is difficult to know with certainty who will become prime minister until the last ballot is counted and the relevant authorities announce who has emerged in first place, qualifying that person to be tasked by the president with forming a government.
Even then, the person tasked with forming a government may fail, in which case someone else can be given the mandate. There have been several instances in which those tasked with forming a government failed, leading to second and third elections.
In the current race between Eizenkot and Netanyahu, the general appears assured of victory and the mandate if elections were held by direct popular vote. He leads Netanyahu by a margin that would be sufficient to settle the race in his favor. But because Israel’s system does not work that way, all poll results remain subject to change.
Eizenkot’s dilemma as the more popular candidate and the one with the stronger prospects lies in the camp to which he belongs: the camp opposed to Netanyahu. Serious opposition to the general’s leadership has emerged from within that camp. If even one of his opponents declines to endorse him in the consultations held by the president, Eizenkot could be eliminated from the race for lack of sufficient support.
Eizenkot’s rivals acknowledge his popularity but question his qualifications, citing his limited experience in politics and government. Each of the three - Lapid, Bennett and Lieberman - can point to an extensive record in senior positions. Two have taken turns as prime ministers, while the third has served as foreign and defense minister, as well as deputy prime minister.
All three, or at least two of them, are putting themselves forward for the premiership. They question whether the person who finishes first in the election is necessarily destined to receive the mandate. Even if given the mandate, they could decline to nominate him during the president’s consultations, potentially removing him from the race altogether.
With a long period still separating the present from election day - a period likely to be filled with battles, alliances and surprises - Eizenkot’s path to the premiership remains fraught with uncertainty. Two possible outcomes, neither favorable to him, illustrate the dilemma: the first is the president’s proposal for a rotation government with Netanyahu; the second is another election.
In a head-to-head comparison with Netanyahu, on the basis of choosing between the bad and the less bad, Eizenkot could find a safety net in Arab lawmakers that might keep him in the game. But that would depend on Arab voter turnout reaching 70%, producing an increase in their representation.
Early indications suggest that such a large bloc of Arab seats could tempt Eizenkot into an open and formal alliance with them. But will that happen? No one knows.
During an election season, questions also arise over the extent of US influence and whose side Washington might favor if the race ends in a tie. Here, however, the discussion is based on impressions and estimates rather than information.
There is a prevailing impression in Israel that the Americans favor Eizenkot, viewing him as closer to their policies or more flexible on Middle East issues than the “troublesome” Netanyahu. That is why his upcoming visit to the United States is being treated with considerable caution. A meeting with President Trump has yet to be confirmed, prompting his office to shorten the visit and cancel many of its planned engagements, including a much-anticipated meeting with billionaire Elon Musk.
In short, Netanyahu differs from Eizenkot in facing no serious challengers from within his own camp, whereas Eizenkot faces serious rivals, including from within his own camp. That leaves his prospects of becoming the next prime minister shrouded in considerable uncertainty.
