The enlarged first stage of the revamped Champions League was supposed to be a stroll for giants of European soccer like Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City.
It’s proving anything but that.
In fact, heading into the sixth of eight rounds in the new-look, 36-team league format, there’s a growing risk of an embarrassingly early exit for Madrid and City — the winners of the last two Champions League titles — as well as PSG, the French champion which is doing by far the worst out of the four Ligue 1 teams in the competition.
Twenty-four clubs will advance to the knockout stage, with the top eight qualifying directly for the last 16 and the other 16 going into two-legged playoffs.
PSG is currently in 25th place — and therefore out of the qualifying picture — while Kylian Mbappé and Madrid are only one place higher, hanging onto the last qualifying spot. They both play away from home this week in their third-to-last games, with Madrid facing a tough trip to Atalanta and PSG having what looks to be an easier game at Salzburg, also on Tuesday.
City is languishing in 17th place and on eight points — the number that organizer UEFA's statistics guru predicted in simulations should be enough to advance — but a loss at Juventus on Wednesday would plunge the embattled English champions into potential trouble.
The PSG vs. Man City match in the seventh round is shaping up to be hugely significant, especially if things don’t go their way this week.
MADRID IN THE MIRE
In past Champions League competitions, the sixth round of games would wrap up the group stage and Madrid — the 15-time European champions — would typically be fielding some fringe players with a spot in the last 16 tied up.
This time around they’ve lost three of their five games so far and now face an Atalanta team that is one of three sides yet to lose a match and has only conceded one goal. The Italian club, which won the Europa League last season, was beaten 2-0 by Madrid in the UEFA Super Cup in August but is now among the form teams in Europe with nine straight wins and no losses in 14 games in all competitions.
Scrutiny on Mbappé has increased after two penalty misses in losses to Liverpool in the Champions League and Athletic Bilbao in the Spanish league, but the France striker scored what could be a confidence-boosting goal in a win over Girona on Saturday.
PSG’S SCORING WOES
It was to be expected that PSG’s goal output would dip after losing Mbappé to Madrid, a year after seeing Lionel Messi leave to go to Inter Miami.
Few saw the goals drying up this much, though.
PSG, with an attack still containing Randal Kolo Muani, Ousmane Dembele, Goncalo Ramos and Bradley Barcola, has scored just three goals in its five league-stage games — tied for the fourth-lowest total in the competition.
However, only three teams have conceded more than Salzburg’s 15 — five of which were shipped at Bayer Leverkusen in the last round — so PSG should thrive against one of the most porous defenses around. Salzburg is only fifth in the 12-team Austrian league, too, yet is somehow heading to the Club World Cup next summer along with PSG.
CITY'S STRUGGLES
City only needs one more win to secure its progress, but victories are no longer a certainty for Pep Guardiola's struggling and injury-hit team.
In its last nine games in all competitions, City has lost six times, drawn twice and won just once. In that streak, there have been two Champions League games — a 4-1 thrashing by Sporting Lisbon and a 3-3 draw with Feyenoord, which came from 3-0 down in the 75th minute.
LIVERPOOL’S WINNING RUN
First-place Liverpool is the only team both on a maximum 15 points and guaranteed to be playing the knockout stage. The Premier League leader will go for a sixth straight win in an away match at Girona on Tuesday.
Inter Milan is in second place and is yet to concede a goal ahead of its trip to Leverkusen, also on Tuesday.
Another standout match sees Barcelona visit Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday in a match between the teams placed third and fourth, respectively.
