Spain and Lamine Yamal, France and Kylian Mbappe plus Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo are close to confirming their places at the 2026 World Cup.
Erling Haaland’s 12 goals so far have Norway even nearer to sealing the team’s first World Cup qualification since before he was born, and edging Italy toward the playoffs where the four-time champion was shockingly eliminated in the past two editions.
Germany also risks not advancing directly as a European group winner. The Germans have a possible showdown game on Monday against Slovakia in Leipzig.
World Cup qualifying in Europe resumes on Thursday and six days later, 11 more group-winning teams will have joined England at the first 48-team finals tournament that the United States, Canada and Mexico will co-host.
Europe has 16 places at the expanded World Cup — there were 13 in the last 32-team World Cup in Qatar in 2022 — and the last four entries will be decided by playoff brackets in March.
Croatia, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium all are well set to confirm their returns to the World Cup.
Denmark and Austria head into the final week favored to top their groups, though they could be overtaken in final games against, respectively, Scotland and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Yamal's return
Spain has a perfect record of four wins, 15 goals scored and none conceded yet still has two tricky games to finish, at Georgia on Saturday and hosting Türkiye three days later.
Tbilisi is where Yamal’s international career started as Spain’s youngest ever player, aged 16 years and less than two months in September 2023. Then, he scored as a substitute in a 7-1 win over Georgia in Euro 2024 qualifying.
Three of Yamal’s 23 games for Spain have been against Georgia including when he scored in a 4-1 round-of-16 win for the eventual champion at Euro 2024.
Türkiye, a Euro 2024 quarterfinalist, can first beat Bulgaria and put some pressure on Spain ahead of meeting in their final game in Seville on Tuesday next week.
With goal difference the first tiebreaker, Türkiye needs Spain to drop points in Georgia or else to win big in Seville. That looks unlikely after Spain’s 6-0 win in Türkiye in September.
France remembers
The World Cup champion in 2018 and beaten finalist against Argentina four years later, France will advance with a round to spare by beating Ukraine on Thursday at Parc des Princes.
The game is 10 years to the day since deadly terrorist attacks in Paris, at the Bataclan concert venue, and at Stade de France where France was playing Germany. The anniversary will be honored on Thursday.
Two draws would be enough for France to top the four-team group that is completed on Sunday away to Azerbaijan.
Ronaldo’s sixth
Portugal also needs just two points from games at Ireland on Thursday and hosting last-place Armenia on Sunday.
That would send Ronaldo, who turns 41 in February, to his sixth World Cup.
Ronaldo and Lionel Messi are heading to their record sixth tournaments to break a tie with Lothar Matthäus, who played at three for West Germany and two with reunified Germany from 1982-98.
Haaland rising
Norway last played at a men’s World Cup in 1998 and Haaland was born two years later.
Haaland has scored 12 of Norway’s European-best 29 in a romp through Group I which should be effectively won on Thursday by beating Estonia in Oslo.
Norway’s goal difference already is 16 superior to Italy — which it beat 3-0 in June — before playing the return game on Sunday at San Siro. Italy first goes to overmatched Moldova.
Germany is back on top of its group after starting with a 2-0 loss at Slovakia in September. Slovakia slipped up when it lost last month at Northern Ireland and is tied on points with Germany, which should further raise its goal difference on Friday at Luxembourg.
Germany will want to win both of its games to stay in the FIFA top 10 rankings and secure top-seeded status in the tournament draw on Dec. 5 in Washington, DC.
The Netherlands will all but qualify with a draw on Friday at Poland, and Switzerland can almost assure its place beating Sweden in Geneva on Saturday.
Playoffs format
Sweden, which has a new coach in Englishman Graham Potter, has the expected safety net of the 16-team playoffs after winning a Nations League group last year.
The playoff teams will be the 12 qualifying group runners-up plus the four best-ranked Nations League group winners who finished third or worse in World Cup qualifying groups.
Four brackets will be drawn of four teams each, playing single-game semifinals and finals from March 26-31.
The playoffs lineup is confirmed after next Tuesday's games. FIFA's updated rankings the next morning decide seeding pots for the Nov. 20 draw at FIFA headquarters in Zurich.
The four European playoff spots will be placeholders in the Dec. 5 World Cup draw coming from the lowest-ranked pot 4 — even though Italy is currently ranked No. 9.
