US-China Tech War Seen Heating up Regardless of whether Trump or Harris Wins

US and Chinese flags are seen through broken glass in this illustration taken, January 30, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
US and Chinese flags are seen through broken glass in this illustration taken, January 30, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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US-China Tech War Seen Heating up Regardless of whether Trump or Harris Wins

US and Chinese flags are seen through broken glass in this illustration taken, January 30, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
US and Chinese flags are seen through broken glass in this illustration taken, January 30, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

The US-China tech war is all but certain to heat up no matter whether Republican Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris wins the Nov. 5 US presidential election, with the Democrat likely to come out with targeted new rules and Trump a blunter approach.

New efforts to slow the flow of less-sophisticated Chinese chips, smart cars and other imports into the US are expected, alongside more curbs on chipmaking tools and highly-prized AI chips headed to China, according to former officials from the Biden and Trump administrations, industry experts and people close to the campaigns, according to Reuters.

In her bid for the US presidency, Democrat Harris has said she will make sure "America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century," while Republican candidate Trump has pitched ever-increasing tariffs as a cure-all that includes combating Chinese technological advancement.

In short, the battle to keep US money and technology from boosting China's military and artificial intelligence capabilities is bound to escalate under either Harris or Trump.

"We're seeing the opening of a new front on the US China tech cold war that is focused on data, software and connected devices," said Peter Harrell, a former national security official in the Biden administration.

Last month, the US proposed rules to keep connected cars made with Chinese components off America's streets, while a law was passed this spring that said the short video app TikTok must be sold by its Chinese parent by next year or be banned.

“There’s a lot of concern if a Chinese company is able to access and provide updates to devices,” Harrell said. “The connected car thing and TikTok are just the tip of the iceberg.”

Should Harris win the election, her approach would likely be more targeted and coordinated than Trump’s, people close to both administrations say.

For example, she is likely to continue working with allies much like the Biden administration has, to keep US tech from aiding the Chinese military, Harrell said.

A Trump administration, on the other hand, may move more quickly, and be more willing to punish recalcitrant allies.

"I think we learned from President Trump's first term that he has a bias for action," said Jamieson Greer, former chief of staff to Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative under Trump who remains close to the campaign.

Nazak Nikakhtar, a Commerce Department official under Trump who knows his current advisors, expects a Trump administration to be "much more aggressive about export control policies towards China."

She anticipates "a significant expansion of the entity list," to capture affiliates and business partners of listed companies. The list restricts exports to those on it. Trump added China's Huawei Technologies to the list for sanctions busting.

Licenses to ship US technology to China also are more likely to be denied, Nikakhtar said.

She said she would not be surprised if a Trump administration imposed restrictions not only on imports of Chinese chips but on "certain products containing those chips."

And she expects Trump to be tougher than Harris on allies who don't follow the US lead. "The Trump philosophy is more of a stick," she said.

Bill Reinsch, a former Commerce official during the Clinton administration sees Trump as likely to take a "sledgehammer" to controls where Harris would use a "scalpel."

"Trump's approach has been across-the-board, most clearly seen in his current tariff proposals," Reinsch said.

Trump has said he would impose tariffs of 10 or 20 percent on all imports (not just Chinese) and 60 percent or more on Chinese imports.

Harris has described Trump's tariff plan as a tax on consumers, but the Biden administration has seen the need for targeted tariffs including increasing the rate on semiconductors from 25 percent to 50 percent by 2025.

China has repeatedly said it would safeguard its rights and interests. Last year, it targeted US memory chip maker Micron Technology after Washington imposed a series of export controls on US chips and chipmaking equipment, and the US accused Beijing of penalizing other US companies amid growing tensions.

China also introduced export restrictions last year on germanium and gallium, metals widely used in chipmaking, citing national security interests. It issued new curbs on some graphite products that go into electric vehicle batteries in October 2023, days after the US tightened rules on chip-related exports. And in June it unveiled new rules on rare earth elements critical for military equipment and consumer electronics.

Wilbur Ross, commerce secretary under Trump, said that the US needs to be tough on China, but strategic, too, noting the US is still dependent on China for rare earths.

"It would be very dangerous to just try to cut them off," he said.



Anthropic Says Looking to Power European Tech with Hiring Push

As the AI race heats up, so does the race to find talent in the sector, which is currently dominated by US and Chinese companies. Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP/File
As the AI race heats up, so does the race to find talent in the sector, which is currently dominated by US and Chinese companies. Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP/File
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Anthropic Says Looking to Power European Tech with Hiring Push

As the AI race heats up, so does the race to find talent in the sector, which is currently dominated by US and Chinese companies. Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP/File
As the AI race heats up, so does the race to find talent in the sector, which is currently dominated by US and Chinese companies. Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP/File

American AI giant Anthropic aims to boost the European tech ecosystem as it expands on the continent, product chief Mike Krieger told AFP Thursday at the Vivatech trade fair in Paris.

The OpenAI competitor wants to be "the engine behind some of the largest startups of tomorrow... (and) many of them can and should come from Europe", Krieger said.

Tech industry and political leaders have often lamented Europe's failure to capitalize on its research and education strength to build heavyweight local companies -- with many young founders instead leaving to set up shop across the Atlantic.

Krieger's praise for the region's "really strong talent pipeline" chimed with an air of continental tech optimism at Vivatech.

French AI startup Mistral on Wednesday announced a multibillion-dollar tie-up to bring high-powered computing resources from chip behemoth Nvidia to the region.

The semiconductor firm will "increase the amount of AI computing capacity in Europe by a factor of 10" within two years, Nvidia boss Jensen Huang told an audience at the southern Paris convention center.

Among 100 planned continental hires, Anthropic is building up its technical and research strength in Europe, where it has offices in Dublin and non-EU capital London, Krieger said.

Beyond the startups he hopes to boost, many long-standing European companies "have a really strong appetite for transforming themselves with AI", he added, citing luxury giant LVMH, which had a large footprint at Vivatech.

'Safe by design'

Mistral -- founded only in 2023 and far smaller than American industry leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic -- is nevertheless "definitely in the conversation" in the industry, Krieger said.

The French firm recently followed in the footsteps of the US companies by releasing a so-called "reasoning" model able to take on more complex tasks.

"I talk to customers all the time that are maybe using (Anthropic's AI) Claude for some of the long-horizon agentic tasks, but then they've also fine-tuned Mistral for one of their data processing tasks, and I think they can co-exist in that way," Krieger said.

So-called "agentic" AI models -- including the most recent versions of Claude -- work as autonomous or semi-autonomous agents that are able to do work over longer horizons with less human supervision, including by interacting with tools like web browsers and email.

Capabilities displayed by the latest releases have raised fears among some researchers, such as University of Montreal professor and "AI godfather" Yoshua Bengio, that independently acting AI could soon pose a risk to humanity.

Bengio last week launched a non-profit, LawZero, to develop "safe-by-design" AI -- originally a key founding promise of OpenAI and Anthropic.

'Very specific genius'

"A huge part of why I joined Anthropic was because of how seriously they were taking that question" of AI safety, said Krieger, a Brazilian software engineer who co-founded Instagram, which he left in 2018.

Anthropic is still working on measures designed to restrict their AI models' potential to do harm, he added.

But it has yet to release details of its "level 4" AI safety protections foreseen for still more powerful models, after activating ASL (AI Safety Level) 3 to corral the capabilities of May's Claude Opus 4 release.

Developing ASL 4 is "an active part of the work of the company", Krieger said, without giving a potential release date.

With Claude 4 Opus, "we've deployed the mitigations kind of proactively... safe doesn't have to mean slow, but it does mean having to be thoughtful and proactive ahead of time" to make sure safety protections don't impair performance, he added.

Looking to upcoming releases from Anthropic, Krieger said the company's models were on track to match chief executive Dario Amodei's prediction that Anthropic would offer customers access to a "country of geniuses in a data center" by 2026 or 2027 -- within limits.

Anthropic's latest AI models are "genius-level at some very specific things", he said.

"In the coming year... it will continue to spike in particular aspects of things, and still need a lot of human-in-the-loop coordination," he forecast.