Summer 2023 Was the Hottest in 2,000 Years, Study Says

A child cools off at a water supply line as temperatures rise in Karachi, Pakistan, 13 May 2024. (EPA)
A child cools off at a water supply line as temperatures rise in Karachi, Pakistan, 13 May 2024. (EPA)
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Summer 2023 Was the Hottest in 2,000 Years, Study Says

A child cools off at a water supply line as temperatures rise in Karachi, Pakistan, 13 May 2024. (EPA)
A child cools off at a water supply line as temperatures rise in Karachi, Pakistan, 13 May 2024. (EPA)

Last summer, as wildfires swept across the Mediterranean, roads buckled in Texas and heatwaves strained power grids in China, it was not just the warmest summer on record, but the hottest one in some 2,000 years, new research has found.

European scientists last year established that the period from June through August was the warmest in records dating back to 1940 - a clear sign of climate change fueling new extremes.

But the summer heat of 2023 in the Northern Hemisphere also eclipses records over a far longer time horizon, a study in the journal Nature found on Tuesday.

"When you look at the long sweep of history, you can see just how dramatic recent global warming is," said study co-author Jan Esper, a climate scientist at Johannes Gutenberg University in Germany.

Summer 2023 saw land temperatures between 30 and 90 degrees North of latitude reach 2.07 degrees Celsius (3.73 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than pre-industrial averages, the study said.

Scientists used meteorological station records dating back to the mid-1800s combined with tree rings from thousands of trees across nine sites in the Northern Hemisphere, to recreate what annual temperatures looked like in the distant past.

Last summer, they found, was 2.2 C warmer (4 F) than the estimated average temperatures for the years of 1 to 1890, based on these tree ring proxies.

Scientists with the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service said in January that 2023 was "very likely" to have been the warmest in the last 100,000 years.

However, Esper and a team of European scientists have refuted such claims. They argue the scientific methods of gleaning past climate information from sources such as lake and marine sediments and peat bogs, do not allow to draw out year-by-year comparisons for temperature extremes over such a vast time scale.

"We don't have such data," Esper said. "That was an overstatement."

The warming from rising greenhouse gas emissions caused by the burning of fossil fuels was amplified last summer by an El Nino climate pattern which generally leads to warmer global temperatures, Esper said.

"We end up with longer and more severe heatwaves and extended periods of drought," he said.



Blood Tests Allow 30-year Estimates of Women's Cardio Risks, New Study Says

A woman jogs in a park in Saint-Sebastien-sur-Loire near Nantes, France January 19, 2024. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A woman jogs in a park in Saint-Sebastien-sur-Loire near Nantes, France January 19, 2024. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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Blood Tests Allow 30-year Estimates of Women's Cardio Risks, New Study Says

A woman jogs in a park in Saint-Sebastien-sur-Loire near Nantes, France January 19, 2024. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A woman jogs in a park in Saint-Sebastien-sur-Loire near Nantes, France January 19, 2024. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Women’s heart disease risks and their need to start taking preventive medications should be evaluated when they are in their 30s rather than well after menopause as is now the practice, said researchers who published a study on Saturday.

Presenting the findings at the European Society of Cardiology annual meeting in London, they said the study showed for the first time that simple blood tests make it possible to estimate a woman’s risk of cardiovascular disease over the next three decades.

"This is good for patients first and foremost, but it is also important information for (manufacturers of) cholesterol lowering drugs, anti-inflammatory drugs, and lipoprotein(a)lowering drugs - the implications for therapy are broad," said study leader Dr. Paul Ridker of Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, Reuters reported.

Current guidelines “suggest to physicians that women should generally not be considered for preventive therapies until their 60s and 70s. These new data... clearly demonstrate that our guidelines need to change,” Ridker said. “We must move beyond discussions of 5 or 10 year risk."

The 27,939 participants in the long-term Women’s Health Initiative study had blood tests between 1992 and 1995 for low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C or “bad cholesterol”), which are already a part of routine care.

They also had tests for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) - a marker of blood vessel inflammation - and lipoprotein(a), a genetically determined type of fat.

Compared to risks in women with the lowest levels of each marker, risks for major cardiovascular events like heart attacks or strokes over the next 30 years were 36% higher in women with the highest levels of LDL-C, 70% higher in women with the highest levels of hsCRP, and 33% higher in those with the highest levels of lipoprotein(a).

Women in whom all three markers were in the highest range were 2.6 times more likely to have a major cardiovascular event and 3.7 times more likely to have a stroke over the next three decades, according to a report of the study in The New England Journal of Medicine published to coincide with the presentation at the meeting.

“The three biomarkers are fully independent of each other and tell us about different biologic issues each individual woman faces,” Ridker said.

“The therapies we might use in response to an elevation in each biomarker are markedly different, and physicians can now specifically target the individual person’s biologic problem.”

While drugs that lower LDL-C and hsCRP are widely available - including statins and certain pills for high blood pressure and heart failure - drugs that reduce lipoprotein(a) levels are still in development by companies, including Novartis , Amgen , Eli Lilly and London-based Silence Therapeutics.

In some cases, lifestyle changes such as exercising and quitting smoking can be helpful.

Most of the women in the study were white Americans, but the findings would likely “have even greater impact among Black and Hispanic women for whom there is even a higher prevalence of undetected and untreated inflammation,” Ridker said.

“This is a global problem,” he added. “We need universal screening for hsCRP ... and for lipoprotein(a), just as we already have universal screening for cholesterol.”