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Is Climate Change Making Tropical Storms More Frequent? Scientists Say It’s Unclear

A drone view shows a damaged area, following the passing of Hurricane Helene, in Asheville, North Carolina, US, September 29, 2024. (Reuters)
A drone view shows a damaged area, following the passing of Hurricane Helene, in Asheville, North Carolina, US, September 29, 2024. (Reuters)
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Is Climate Change Making Tropical Storms More Frequent? Scientists Say It’s Unclear

A drone view shows a damaged area, following the passing of Hurricane Helene, in Asheville, North Carolina, US, September 29, 2024. (Reuters)
A drone view shows a damaged area, following the passing of Hurricane Helene, in Asheville, North Carolina, US, September 29, 2024. (Reuters)

An unusual cluster of typhoons in the West Pacific and a series of powerful hurricanes in the Atlantic are raising questions about the impact that climate change is having on tropical storms across the globe.

As nations thrashed out the details of a new climate financing package at COP29 talks in Azerbaijan, the Philippines was hit by its sixth deadly typhoon in a month while the United States was recovering from two devastating hurricanes.

Scientists say it remains unclear how much climate change is reshaping the storm season, or if it is responsible for the rare appearance of four tropical cyclones at the same time in the West Pacific - the first time this has happened in November since 1961.

Higher sea surface temperatures speed up evaporation and provide additional "fuel" for tropical cyclones, boosting rainfall and wind speeds, they say.

And the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2023, expressed "high confidence" global warming would make storms more intense.

The Philippines' latest supertyphoon Man-Yi landed on Saturday, forcing the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of residents. At least eight people died on Monday, adding to a death toll of more than 160 since October.

"It is rare to see a cluster of four tropical cyclones in the western north Pacific at the same time," said Feng Xiangbo, a tropical storm researcher at Britain's University of Reading.

"(But) blaming climate change ... for this unprecedented event this week is not straightforward," he added.

Evidence suggests that while climate change is increasing storm intensity, it has also reduced their frequency, especially during what is typically the late season from October to November, Feng said.

This year, atmospheric waves that have recently been active near the equator could be an alternative explanation for the unusual uptick, Feng said, but their relationship with climate change is unclear.

The belt of high pressure known as the sub-tropical ridge, part of the global atmospheric circulation system, has been stronger and stretched further north and west than usual, according to Choy Chun Win, Senior Scientific Officer at the Hong Kong Observatory.

The ridge could have steered the storms in a westerly direction, diverting them away from cooler waters and wind shears, which would normally weaken them, providing an explanation why four could coexist, he said.

"However, more research is required to assess the contribution of climate change to the chance occurrence of the multiple tropical cyclones and the longer tropical cyclone season," he added.

Ben Clarke, weather researcher with London's Grantham Institute on Climate Change and Environment, said it "would make sense" that rising ocean temperatures would extend the typhoon season, but the evidence is not conclusive.

"There has been a clear recent increase in the number of tropical cyclones affecting the Philippines in its less active season from approximately December to February, but this doesn't tell us much about ... June-November," he said.

STRONGER HURRICANES

In an analysis published on Wednesday, US weather researchers Climate Central said Atlantic hurricanes have intensified significantly this year as a result of record-breaking ocean warming.

Since 2019, warmer temperatures have driven average wind speeds up by 18 miles per hour (29 kph) and pushed three hurricanes into the highest Category 5, the study said.

The two deadly Category 5 hurricanes known as Helene and Milton, which hit Florida in September and October respectively, would have been unlikely without climate change, it said.

Research is still ongoing on whether tropical cyclones are becoming more frequent, but there is high scientific confidence that warmer sea temperatures are driving up rainfall and causing higher storm surges, said Daniel Gilford, Climate Central's lead hurricane researcher.

"While other factors contribute to each storm's strength, the impacts of elevated sea surface temperatures are prominent and significant," he said.

"In the Atlantic, more than 80% of storms since 2019 were clearly influenced by warm ocean temperatures caused by carbon pollution."

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Varieties

Orange Frog Size of Pencil Tip Discovered in Brazil Forests

Tiny toadlet measuring less than 14 mm in length (Luiz Fernando Ribeiro)
Tiny toadlet measuring less than 14 mm in length (Luiz Fernando Ribeiro)
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Orange Frog Size of Pencil Tip Discovered in Brazil Forests

Tiny toadlet measuring less than 14 mm in length (Luiz Fernando Ribeiro)
Tiny toadlet measuring less than 14 mm in length (Luiz Fernando Ribeiro)

Scientists have found a new orange toad species in Brazil that is so small it fits on the tip of a pencil, highlighting the need for more conservation efforts in the country’s mountainous forest areas.

The toad species, measuring less than 14mm, was found deep in the cloud forests of the Serra do Quiriri mountain range in the southern Brazilian Atlantic Forest, according to the Independent.

Researchers have named the new species Brachycephalus lulai in honor of Brazil’s president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Cloud forests typically are found at altitudes between 1,000 and 2,500m and a layer of clouds at the canopy level is common year-round.

Until now, around two million animal species have been discovered in the world, with estimates suggesting that the Earth is home to around eight million of them, meaning at least six million remain yet undiscovered.

For decades, researchers have been combing the southern Brazilian Atlantic Forest to find and catalogue new species.

The region is known to be home to micro-endemic frogs and toads that are only found in small, restricted areas of the forest and are vulnerable to extinction.

In the latest study, researchers document the discovery of tiny frogs with a striking orange body and distinctive green and brown freckles.

The males were found to measure between 9 and 11mm, and females between 11 and 14mm.

They are among the smallest four-legged animals on Earth, capable of fitting fully on the tip of a pencil, researchers say.

Scientists identified the new species by its unique mating call, consisting of two short bursts of sound, unlike those of other known Brachycephalus in the area.

Researchers also conducted CT X-ray scans to look at the skeletal structure and DNA analysis to confirm what they had was indeed a new species.

Comparing DNA samples of the toad with those of other species, they found that it is most closely related to two species that live in the Serra do Quiriri.

Following the discovery, scientists immediately called for conservation efforts to protect the toad species and its relatives.

“Through this tribute (the act of naming a new species), we seek to encourage the expansion of conservation initiatives focused on the Atlantic Forest as a whole, and on Brazil's highly endemic miniaturized frogs in particular,” researchers wrote in the study published in the journal PLOS One.

Caption: Tiny toadlet measuring less than 14 mm in length (Luiz Fernando Ribeiro)

Varieties

'Extremely Exciting': The Ice Cores that Could Help Save Glaciers

A researcher cuts a slice from an ice core sample taken from a glacier in the Pamir mountain range in Tajikistan, at the Hokkaido University Institute of Low Temperature Science, in Sapporo, in northern Japan's Hokkaido prefecture on December 9, 2025. (Photo by GREG BAKER / AFP)
A researcher cuts a slice from an ice core sample taken from a glacier in the Pamir mountain range in Tajikistan, at the Hokkaido University Institute of Low Temperature Science, in Sapporo, in northern Japan's Hokkaido prefecture on December 9, 2025. (Photo by GREG BAKER / AFP)
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'Extremely Exciting': The Ice Cores that Could Help Save Glaciers

A researcher cuts a slice from an ice core sample taken from a glacier in the Pamir mountain range in Tajikistan, at the Hokkaido University Institute of Low Temperature Science, in Sapporo, in northern Japan's Hokkaido prefecture on December 9, 2025. (Photo by GREG BAKER / AFP)
A researcher cuts a slice from an ice core sample taken from a glacier in the Pamir mountain range in Tajikistan, at the Hokkaido University Institute of Low Temperature Science, in Sapporo, in northern Japan's Hokkaido prefecture on December 9, 2025. (Photo by GREG BAKER / AFP)

Dressed in an orange puffer jacket, Japanese scientist Yoshinori Iizuka stepped into a storage freezer to retrieve an ice core he hopes will help experts protect the world's disappearing glaciers.

The fist-sized sample drilled from a mountaintop is part of an ambitious international effort to understand why glaciers in Tajikistan have resisted the rapid melting seen almost everywhere else.

"If we could learn the mechanism behind the increased volume of ice there, then we may be able to apply that to all the other glaciers around the world," potentially even helping revive them, said Iizuka, a professor at Hokkaido University.

"That may be too ambitious a statement. But I hope our study will ultimately help people," he said.

Thousands of glaciers will vanish each year in the coming decades, leaving only a fraction standing by the end of the century unless global warming is curbed, a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change showed Monday.

Earlier this year, AFP exclusively accompanied Iizuka and other scientists through harsh conditions to a site at an altitude of 5,810 meters (about 19,000 feet) on the Kon-Chukurbashi ice cap in the Pamir Mountains.

The area is the only mountainous region on the planet where glaciers have not only resisted melting, but even slightly grown, a phenomenon called the "Pamir-Karakoram anomaly.”

The team drilled two ice columns approximately 105 meters (328 feet) long out of the glacier.

One is being stored in an underground sanctuary in Antarctica belonging to the Ice Memory Foundation, which supported the Tajikistan expedition along with the Swiss Polar Institute.

The other was shipped to Iizuka's facility, the Institute of Low Temperature Science at Hokkaido University in Sapporo, where the team is hunting clues on why precipitation in the region increased over the last century, and how the glacier has resisted melting.

Some link the anomaly to the area's cold climate or even increased use of agricultural water in Pakistan that creates more vapor.

But the ice cores are the first opportunity to examine the anomaly scientifically.
"Information from the past is crucial," said Iizuka.

"By understanding the causes behind the continuous build-up of snow from the past to the present, we can clarify what will happen going forward and why the ice has grown."

Since the samples arrived in November, his team has worked in freezing storage facilities to log the density, alignment of snow grains, and the structure of ice layers.

In December, when AFP visited, the scientists were kitted out like polar explorers to cut and shave ice samples in the comparatively balmy minus 20C of their lab.

The samples can tell stories about weather conditions going back decades, or even centuries.

A layer of clear ice indicates a warm period when the glacier melted and then refroze, while a low-density layer suggests packed snow, rather than ice, which can help estimate precipitation.

Brittle samples with cracks, meanwhile, indicate snowfall on half-melted layers that then refroze.

And other clues can reveal more information -- volcanic materials like sulfate ions can serve as time markers, while water isotopes can reveal temperatures.

The scientists hope that the samples contain material dating back 10,000 years or more, though much of the glacier melted during a warm spell around 6,000 years ago.

Ancient ice would help scientists answer questions such as "what kind of snow was falling in this region 10,000 years ago? What was in it?" Iizuka said.

"We can study how many and what kinds of fine particles were suspended in the atmosphere during that ice age," he added.

"I really hope there is ancient ice."

For now, the work proceeds slowly and carefully, with team members like graduate student Sora Yaginuma carefully slicing samples apart.

"An ice core is an extremely valuable sample and unique," said Yaginuma.

"From that single ice core, we perform a variety of analyses, both chemical and physical."

The team hopes to publish its first findings next year and will be doing "lots of trial-and-error" work to reconstruct past climate conditions, Iizuka said.

The analysis in Hokkaido will uncover only some of what the ice has to share, and with the other samples preserved in Antarctica, there will be opportunities for more research.

For example, he said, scientists could look for clues about how mining in the region historically affected the area's air quality, temperature and precipitation.

"We can learn how the Earth's environment has changed in response to human activities," Iizuka said.

With so many secrets yet to learn, the work is "extremely exciting," he added.

Varieties

Jane Austen Fans Celebrate the Author’s 250th Birthday in Britain and Beyond

One of the new British 10 pound notes is posed for photographs outside the Bank of England in the City of London, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017. (AP)
One of the new British 10 pound notes is posed for photographs outside the Bank of England in the City of London, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017. (AP)
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Jane Austen Fans Celebrate the Author’s 250th Birthday in Britain and Beyond

One of the new British 10 pound notes is posed for photographs outside the Bank of England in the City of London, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017. (AP)
One of the new British 10 pound notes is posed for photographs outside the Bank of England in the City of London, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017. (AP)

Fans of Jane Austen celebrated the acclaimed author's 250th birthday on Tuesday with a church service in her home village, festive visits to her house — and a virtual party for those paying tribute from afar.

Thousands of enthusiasts around the world have already taken part in a yearlong celebration of one of English literature’s greats, who penned “Pride and Prejudice," “Sense and Sensibility” and other beloved novels.

On Tuesday — to mark 250 years since she was born on Dec. 16, 1775 — Jane Austen’s House, in the southern English village of Chawton, hosted talks, tours and performances for dozens of visitors, with celebrations concluding with an online party for fans from all over the world.

“Regency dress strongly encouraged,” organizers said, adding that more than 500 people had signed up for the Zoom party.

The cottage, now a museum with Austen artifacts, was where the author lived for the last years of her life and where she wrote all six of her novels.

A church service featuring music and readings is held in Steventon, the rural village where she was born.

Fans, who call themselves “Janeites," have marked the anniversary year with Regency balls and festivals staged in the UK, US and beyond.

At the weekend, the city of Bath, where Austen lived for five years, hosted the Yuletide Jane Austen Birthday Ball, the finale of many grand costumed events held there this year.