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‘City Killer’ Asteroid Now Has 3.1% Chance of Hitting Earth, Says NASA 

This image made available by University of Hawaii's asteroid impact alert system shows the motion of asteroid 2024 YR4 over about one hour, Dec. 27, 2024. (ATLAS / University of Hawaii / NASA via AP)
This image made available by University of Hawaii's asteroid impact alert system shows the motion of asteroid 2024 YR4 over about one hour, Dec. 27, 2024. (ATLAS / University of Hawaii / NASA via AP)
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‘City Killer’ Asteroid Now Has 3.1% Chance of Hitting Earth, Says NASA 

This image made available by University of Hawaii's asteroid impact alert system shows the motion of asteroid 2024 YR4 over about one hour, Dec. 27, 2024. (ATLAS / University of Hawaii / NASA via AP)
This image made available by University of Hawaii's asteroid impact alert system shows the motion of asteroid 2024 YR4 over about one hour, Dec. 27, 2024. (ATLAS / University of Hawaii / NASA via AP)

An asteroid that could level a city now has a 3.1-percent chance of striking Earth in 2032, according to NASA data released Tuesday -- making it the most threatening space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting.

Despite the rising odds, experts say there is no need for alarm. The global astronomical community is closely monitoring the situation and the James Webb Space Telescope is set to fix its gaze on the object, known as 2024 YR4, next month.

"I'm not panicking," Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society told AFP.

"Naturally when you see the percentages go up, it doesn't make you feel warm and fuzzy and good," he added, but explained that as astronomers gather more data, the probability will likely edge up before rapidly dropping to zero.

2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27 last year by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile.

Astronomers estimate its size to be between 130 and 300 feet (40-90 meters) wide, based on its brightness. Analysis of its light signatures suggests it has a fairly typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid.

The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a worldwide planetary defense collaboration, issued a warning memo on January 29 after the impact probability had crossed one percent. Since then, the figure has fluctuated but continues to trend upward.

NASA's latest calculations estimate the impact probability at 3.1 percent, with a potential Earth impact date of December 22, 2032.

That translates to odds of one in 32 -- roughly the same as correctly guessing the outcome of five consecutive coin tosses.

The last time an asteroid of greater than 30 meters in size posed such a significant risk was Apophis in 2004, when it briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029 -- a possibility later ruled out by additional observations.

Surpassing that threshold is "historic," said Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency's planetary defense office, which puts the risk slightly lower at 2.8 percent.

- Webb observations in March -

"It's a very, very rare event," he told AFP, but added: "This is not a crisis at this point in time. This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. This is at most dangerous for a city."

Data from the Webb telescope -- the most powerful space observatory -- will be key in better understanding its trajectory, said the Planetary Society's Betts.

"Webb is able to see things that are very, very dim," he said -- which is key because the asteroid's orbit is currently taking it out towards Jupiter, and its next close approach will not be until 2028.

If the risk rises over 10 percent, IAWN would issue a formal warning, leading to a "recommendation for all UN members who have territories in potentially threatened areas to start terrestrial preparedness," explained Moissl.

Unlike the six-mile-wide (10-kilometer-wide) asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, 2024 YR4 is classified as a "city killer" -- not a global catastrophe, but still capable of causing significant destruction.

Its potential devastation comes less from its size and more from its velocity, which could be nearly 40,000 miles per hour if it hits.

If it enters Earth's atmosphere, the most likely scenario is an airburst, meaning it would explode midair with a force of approximately eight megatons of TNT -- more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.

But an impact crater cannot be ruled out if the size is closer to the higher end of estimates, said Betts.

The potential impact corridor spans the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia -- though Moissl emphasized it is far too early for people to consider drastic decisions like relocation.

The good news: there's ample time to act.

NASA's 2022 DART mission proved that spacecraft can successfully alter an asteroid's path, and scientists have theorized other methods, such as using lasers to create thrust by vaporizing part of the surface, pulling it off course with a spacecraft's gravity, or even using nuclear explosions as a last resort.

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Scientists: 'Bleak' Future for Seals Decimated by Bird Flu

(FILES) This photograph shows elephant seals on the Possession Island, part of the Crozet Islands which are a sub-Antarctic archipelago of small islands in the southern Indian Ocean, on December 21, 2022. (Photo by Patrick HERTZOG / AFP)
(FILES) This photograph shows elephant seals on the Possession Island, part of the Crozet Islands which are a sub-Antarctic archipelago of small islands in the southern Indian Ocean, on December 21, 2022. (Photo by Patrick HERTZOG / AFP)
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Scientists: 'Bleak' Future for Seals Decimated by Bird Flu

(FILES) This photograph shows elephant seals on the Possession Island, part of the Crozet Islands which are a sub-Antarctic archipelago of small islands in the southern Indian Ocean, on December 21, 2022. (Photo by Patrick HERTZOG / AFP)
(FILES) This photograph shows elephant seals on the Possession Island, part of the Crozet Islands which are a sub-Antarctic archipelago of small islands in the southern Indian Ocean, on December 21, 2022. (Photo by Patrick HERTZOG / AFP)

The world's largest species of seal has been devastated by bird flu, which has wiped out half of all breeding females at a key wildlife haven near Antarctica, scientists warned Thursday.

The remote island of South Georgia is the home of a majority of all southern elephant seals. Males of these blubbery giants can grow up to two meters (six feet seven inches) long, weigh nearly four tons (8,800 pounds) -- and have a distinctive elephant-trunk-like proboscis on their face that earned the mammals their name.

Bird flu arrived on South Georgia in 2023 during an outbreak that has seen the virus spread across the world like never before, killing millions of birds and infecting many mammals, including several humans.

Earlier this year, scientists warned that bird flu had sparked the worst die-off on record for southern elephant seals when it spread among a population on Argentina's coast in 2023, AFP reported.

In a study published in the journal Communications Biology on Thursday, a UK team of researchers gave the first estimate for how hard South Georgia's seals have been hit.

"It paints a pretty stark and harrowing picture," Connor Bamford, a marine ecologist at the British Antarctic Survey and lead author of the study, told AFP.

According to the last count in 1995, South Georgia is home to 54 percent of all southern elephant seals.

On the same day of the year in 2022 and 2024, the scientists used hand-launched drones to take images of the island's three biggest breeding beaches.

After bird flu arrived, the number of breeding females plummeted by 47 percent, a loss of around 53,000 seals, according to the study.

Many pups also died on the beach after being abandoned by their bird-flu-infected mothers.

Scientists at the breeding ground on the Valdes Peninsula along Argentina's coast have determined that 97 percent of elephant seal pups died either from being abandoned or contracting bird flu in 2023.

On the peninsula, an even higher rate of breeding females -- 67 percent -- were estimated to have been wiped out.

"If the South Georgia population responds similarly to the modelled outlook at Peninsula Valdes, the future is bleak," the authors of the new study said.

However, Bamford did not think the elephant seals would be pushed "close to extinction".

The South Georgia population is much larger -- numbering in the hundreds of thousands -- so is likely to be more resilient, he said.

"That being said, the impacts to this population will be felt for many years to come," he added.

For the Valdes seals, scientists have estimated that the aftermath of this bird flu outbreak will likely reverberate until the end of the century.

The researchers believe that the seals are transmitting the virus to each other via water droplets, Bamford said.

While elephants spend most of their time in the water, they breed in densely packed colonies on wide, sandy beaches.

"There are thousands of them together, all coughing and splattering," Bamford said, adding that the seals are also particularly "snotty".

The scientist called for "regular check-ups" on South Georgia's elephant seals.

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Solar Storms Delay the Launch of Blue Origin's Big New Rocket with Mars Orbiters for NASA

A Blue Origin New Glenn rocket is fueled for launch with NASA's EscaPADE mission, carrying two satellites to orbit Mars, from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Florida, US, November 9, 2025. REUTERS/Joe Skipper
A Blue Origin New Glenn rocket is fueled for launch with NASA's EscaPADE mission, carrying two satellites to orbit Mars, from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Florida, US, November 9, 2025. REUTERS/Joe Skipper
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Solar Storms Delay the Launch of Blue Origin's Big New Rocket with Mars Orbiters for NASA

A Blue Origin New Glenn rocket is fueled for launch with NASA's EscaPADE mission, carrying two satellites to orbit Mars, from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Florida, US, November 9, 2025. REUTERS/Joe Skipper
A Blue Origin New Glenn rocket is fueled for launch with NASA's EscaPADE mission, carrying two satellites to orbit Mars, from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Florida, US, November 9, 2025. REUTERS/Joe Skipper

Intense solar storms responsible for breathtaking auroras across the US delayed the launch of Blue Origin’s big new rocket Wednesday.

Already grounded by poor weather, the New Glenn rocket was poised to blast off in the afternoon with two Mars orbiters for NASA from Florida. But five hours before the targeted liftoff, it was called off because of the heightened solar activity, The AP news reported.

Worried about the possible impact of increased radiation on its Mars-bound spacecraft, NASA decided to postpone the launch until conditions improve. Officials said they would try again Thursday.

This will be only the second flight of a New Glenn rocket, which made its debut in January. At 321 feet (98 meters), it is considerably larger and more powerful than the New Shepard rockets that Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin is launching from Texas with passengers.

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For First Time, Scientists See the Very Early Stages of a Supernova

An artist's impression shows a star exploding at the end of its lifecycle, called a supernova, in this handout image released by the European Southern Observatory on November 12, 2025. The star is located about 22 million light-years away from Earth in the galaxy NGC 3621. ESO/L. Calcada/Handout via REUTERS
An artist's impression shows a star exploding at the end of its lifecycle, called a supernova, in this handout image released by the European Southern Observatory on November 12, 2025. The star is located about 22 million light-years away from Earth in the galaxy NGC 3621. ESO/L. Calcada/Handout via REUTERS
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For First Time, Scientists See the Very Early Stages of a Supernova

An artist's impression shows a star exploding at the end of its lifecycle, called a supernova, in this handout image released by the European Southern Observatory on November 12, 2025. The star is located about 22 million light-years away from Earth in the galaxy NGC 3621. ESO/L. Calcada/Handout via REUTERS
An artist's impression shows a star exploding at the end of its lifecycle, called a supernova, in this handout image released by the European Southern Observatory on November 12, 2025. The star is located about 22 million light-years away from Earth in the galaxy NGC 3621. ESO/L. Calcada/Handout via REUTERS

The explosive death of a star - a supernova - is among the most violent cosmic events, but precisely how this cataclysm looks as it unfolds has remained mysterious. Scientists now have observed for the first time the very early stages of a supernova, with a massive star exploding in a distinctive olive-like shape, according to Reuters.

The researchers used the European Southern Observatory's Chile-based Very Large Telescope, or VLT, to observe the supernova, which involved a star roughly 15 times the mass of our sun residing in a galaxy called NGC 3621 about 22 million light-years from Earth in the direction of the constellation Hydra. A light-year is the distance light travels in a year, 5.9 trillion miles (9.5 trillion km).

The shape of such explosions has been hard to nail down until now because of how rapidly they take place, so it took quick action with this supernova. The explosion was detected on April 10, 2024, around the time astrophysicist Yi Yang of Tsinghua University in China had landed on a long flight to San Francisco. Yang's formal request just hours later to aim the VLT at the supernova was granted.

The researchers thus were able to observe the explosion just 26 hours after the initial detection and 29 hours after material from inside the star first broke through the stellar surface.

What they saw was the doomed star surrounded at its equator by a preexisting disk of gas and dust, with the explosion pushing material outward from the stellar core to distort the star's shape into one resembling a vertical-standing olive. The explosion notably did not blow the star apart in a spherical shape. Instead, the explosion pushed violently outward at opposite sides of the star.

"The geometry of a supernova explosion provides fundamental information on stellar evolution and the physical processes leading to these cosmic fireworks," said Yang, lead author of the study published on Wednesday in the journal Science Advances.

"The exact mechanisms behind supernova explosions of massive stars, those with more than eight times the mass of the sun, are still debated and are one of the fundamental questions scientists want to address," Yang said.

Big stars like those live relatively short lives. This one, a type called a red supergiant, was about 25 million years old at the time of its demise. In comparison, the sun is more than 4.5 billion years old and has a few more billion years to go.

At the time it exploded, this star's diameter was 600 times greater than the sun. Some of the star's mass was blown into space in the explosion. The remainder is believed to have become a neutron star, a highly compact stellar remnant, according to study co-author Dietrich Baade, a Germany-based astrophysicist at the European Southern Observatory.

When a star exhausts the hydrogen fuel for the nuclear fusion occurring at its center, its core collapses, which then sends material blasting outward, penetrating the stellar surface and into space.

"The first VLT observations captured the phase during which matter accelerated by the explosion near the center of the star shot through the star's surface, the photosphere," Yang said.

"Once the shock breaks through the surface, it unleashes immense amounts of energy. The supernova then brightens dramatically and becomes observable. During a short-lived phase, the supernova's initial 'breakout' shape can be studied before the explosion interacts with the material surrounding the dying star," Yang said.

This shape, Yang said, offers clues about how the explosion was triggered at the heart of the star. The new observations seem to rule out some current scientific models of the explosion process, Yang said, as scientists refine their understanding of the deaths of massive stars.