Sea Level Rise Expected to Accelerate

Researchers at Mawson Glacier. (Durham University) 
Researchers at Mawson Glacier. (Durham University) 
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Sea Level Rise Expected to Accelerate

Researchers at Mawson Glacier. (Durham University) 
Researchers at Mawson Glacier. (Durham University) 

Rising seas will severely test humanity's resilience in the second half of the 21st century and beyond, even if nations defy the odds and cap global warming at the ambitious 1.5 degrees Celsius target, researchers said last week.

The pace at which global oceans are rising has doubled in three decades, and on current trends will double again by 2100 to about one centimeter per year, they reported in a study.

“Limiting global warming to 1.5C would be a major achievement” and avoid many dire climate impacts, lead author Chris Stokes, a professor at Durham University in England, told AFP on Saturday.

“But even if this target is met,” he added, “sea level rise is likely to accelerate to rates that are very difficult to adapt to.”

Absent protective measures such as sea walls, an additional 20 centimeters (7.8 inches) of sea level rise—the width of a letter-size sheet of paper—by 2050 would cause some $1 trillion in flood damage annually in the world's 136 largest coastal cities, earlier research has shown.

Some 230 million people live on land within one meter (3.2 feet) of sea level, and more than a billion reside within 10 meters.

Sea level rise is driven in roughly equal measure by the disintegration of ice sheets and mountain glaciers, as well as the expansion of warming oceans, which absorb more than 90% of the excess heat due to climate change.

Averaged across 20 years, Earth's surface temperature is currently 1.2C above pre-industrial levels, already enough to lift the ocean watermark by several meters over the coming centuries, Stokes and colleagues noted in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.

The world is on track to see temperatures rise 2.7C above that benchmark by the end of the century.

Tipping points

In a review of scientific literature since the last major climate assessment by the UN-mandated Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Stokes and his team focused on the growing contribution of ice sheets to rising seas.

In 2021, the IPCC projected “likely” sea level rise of 40 to 80 centimeters by 2100, depending on how quickly humanity draws down greenhouse gas emissions, but left ice sheets out of their calculations due to uncertainty.

The picture has become alarmingly more clear since then.

“We are probably heading for the higher numbers within that range, possibly higher,” said Stokes.

Satellite data has revealed that ice sheets with enough frozen water to lift oceans some 65 meters are far more sensitive to climate change than previously suspected.

The amount of ice melting or breaking off into the ocean from Greenland and West Antarctica, now averaging about 400 billion tons a year, has quadrupled over the last three decades, eclipsing runoff from mountain glaciers.

“We used to think that Greenland wouldn't do anything until the world warmed 3C,” said Stokes. “Now the consensus for tipping points for Greenland and West Antarctica is about 1.5C.”

“If you want to slow sea level rise from ice sheets, you clearly have to cool back from present-day temperatures,” Stokes told AFP.

“To slow sea level rise from ice sheets to a manageable level requires a long-term temperature goal that is close to +1C, or possibly lower.”

 

 



Hundreds Evacuated as Greece Wildfire Rages on Crete

Firefighters stand next to rising flames as a wildfire burns near Ierapetra, on the island of Crete, Greece, July 3, 2025. REUTERS/Stefanos Rapanis
Firefighters stand next to rising flames as a wildfire burns near Ierapetra, on the island of Crete, Greece, July 3, 2025. REUTERS/Stefanos Rapanis
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Hundreds Evacuated as Greece Wildfire Rages on Crete

Firefighters stand next to rising flames as a wildfire burns near Ierapetra, on the island of Crete, Greece, July 3, 2025. REUTERS/Stefanos Rapanis
Firefighters stand next to rising flames as a wildfire burns near Ierapetra, on the island of Crete, Greece, July 3, 2025. REUTERS/Stefanos Rapanis

A wildfire fanned by gale-force winds on the southern Greek island of Crete has forced the evacuation of locals and tourists, officials said on Thursday.

Greece is sweltering in a heatwave that is searing much of southern Europe, said AFP.

The country has become particularly vulnerable in recent years to summer wildfires, which are fueled by strong winds, drought and high temperatures linked to climate change.

Local media said around 1,500 people had to be evacuated because of the blaze, which broke out on Wednesday evening.

"Evacuations took place in numerous hotels and tourists were safely transferred to a closed gymnasium in the municipality of Ierapetra," vice-prefect Yannis Androulakis told TV channel Mega, referring to the holiday town in the southeast.

He said the authorities acted because water bomber planes could not reach the affected areas overnight.

"At the moment, there are three active fronts," Androulakis said. "Because of the strong winds, the fire has progressed quite rapidly."

Around 270 firefighters, 10 helicopters and drones have been deployed to tackle the blaze, said Vassilios Vathrakoyannis, a spokesman for the fire service.

They include reinforcements sent in from the capital, Athens.

"There are still a number of different fronts. The fire is burning scrubland and crops," he said.

"The winds are very strong -- up to nine on the Beaufort scale."

- Uneven, arid terrain -

Crete, Greece's largest island, has an arid, uneven landscape criss-crossed by gullies, making it difficult for firefighters to tackle the blaze.

The fire has damaged both houses and crops in fruit and vegetable greenhouses, local media said.

Like the rest of Crete, Ierapetra –- a seaside resort with a population of 23,000 -- takes in thousands of tourists in the summer.

Vathrakoyannis said the authorities would assess the extent of the damage once the fire had been brought under control.

He stressed the risk of fires was "considerable" in July, the hottest month of the year in Greece.

Until now, Greece had been more or less spared the heatwave that has gripped other parts of southern Europe.

The country recorded its hottest ever summer last year when 45,000 hectares were torched, according to WWF Greece and the Athens National Observatory.

In terms of surface area destroyed, 2023 was the worst on record.

Nearly 175,000 hectares were obliterated and 20 people died during a series of prolonged heatwaves when temperatures rose in places to 46 degrees Celsius (115 degrees Fahrenheit).