Sanctions against Russia and What the G7 May Do to Fortify Them

US President Joe Biden, Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Council Charles Michel, Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, France's President Emmanuel Macron and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visit at Itsukushima Shrine for a family photo session during G7 leaders' summit in Hatsukaichi, Hiroshima prefecture, western Japan May 19, 2023, in this photo released by Kyodo. Mandatory credit Kyodo via REUTERS
US President Joe Biden, Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Council Charles Michel, Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, France's President Emmanuel Macron and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visit at Itsukushima Shrine for a family photo session during G7 leaders' summit in Hatsukaichi, Hiroshima prefecture, western Japan May 19, 2023, in this photo released by Kyodo. Mandatory credit Kyodo via REUTERS
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Sanctions against Russia and What the G7 May Do to Fortify Them

US President Joe Biden, Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Council Charles Michel, Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, France's President Emmanuel Macron and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visit at Itsukushima Shrine for a family photo session during G7 leaders' summit in Hatsukaichi, Hiroshima prefecture, western Japan May 19, 2023, in this photo released by Kyodo. Mandatory credit Kyodo via REUTERS
US President Joe Biden, Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Council Charles Michel, Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, France's President Emmanuel Macron and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visit at Itsukushima Shrine for a family photo session during G7 leaders' summit in Hatsukaichi, Hiroshima prefecture, western Japan May 19, 2023, in this photo released by Kyodo. Mandatory credit Kyodo via REUTERS

The Group of Seven advanced economies are expected to announce a new set of sanctions against Russia to try to further hinder its war effort in Ukraine during their summit in Hiroshima, Japan.

In traveling to Japan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will help to drive home the need to better enforce measures meant to stifle Moscow’s war machine, The Associated Press said.

Russia is now the most-sanctioned country in the world, but there are questions about their effectiveness. EU Council President Charles Michel said the plan was to close loopholes and ensure the sanctions are painful for Russia, not for the countries enforcing them.

Here’s a look at what may be next, the sanctions so far, and the impact they have had on Russia's economy and military effort.

WHAT THE G7 MIGHT DO

Michel said the 27-nation EU was focused on “shutting the door on loopholes and continuing to cut Russia off from critical supplies." It is working on a plan to restrict trade in Russian diamonds and trace the trade to prevent Russia from skirting the restrictions. Russia exports about $4 billion worth of rough diamonds a year, nearly a third of the world's total, and the lion's share are cut and polished in India. The new sanctions follow an online summit in February where G7 leaders pledged to intensify enforcement through their sanctions watchdog Enforcement Coordination Mechanism to improve information sharing and enforcement. It has pledged to impose “severe costs” on other countries that evade or undermine them. “We will starve Russia of G7 technology, industrial equipment and services that support its war machine,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said.

CHINA ON THE LIST?

Some Chinese companies that are thought to be supplying components to Russia that can be used for military equipment are on the list of entities that might be sanctioned, an EU official said Saturday. China has so far not joined other countries in announcing any restrictions on trade with Russia, but it also has refrained from providing weapons or other material.

WHAT THE G7 AND OTHER WESTERN NATIONS HAVE DONE SO FAR

The list is long and growing longer.

On Friday, the United Kingdom announced new sanctions targeting Russian seizures of Ukrainian grain, advanced military technology and Moscow's remaining revenue sources. It froze assets of 86 more individuals and entities including companies connected to Rosatom that support President Vladimir Putin's war effort. Russian sovereign assets will stay frozen until “Russia agrees to pay for the damage it has caused in Ukraine,” the British Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office said in a statement.

The US began by targeting members of Putin’s inner circle and their families and banks considered crucial to the Kremlin and Russia’s military. The US also moved to limit Russia’s power to raise money abroad. Sanctions are imposed on individuals listed on a Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List through the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. The list has expanded to include people and companies around the globe allegedly involved in supporting Russia’s military. It works with the Russian Elites, Proxies, and Oligarchs Task Force, a multi-agency group that cooperates with other countries to investigate and prosecute oligarchs and others allied with Putin.

On Friday, the Department of State announced new sanctions on more than 200 entities, individuals, vessels and aircraft, targeting Russia’s energy, military, technology, and metals and mining sectors. They also focused on entities and people involved in unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children and seizures of Ukrainian grain.

The EU has enforced sanctions largely in line with those imposed by the US, Britain and Canada. Since all 27 of its members must agree unanimously, the process can be a bit slower, officials say. The EU has imposed 10 rounds of sanctions on Russia since President Vladimir Putin ordered his forces into Ukraine on Feb. 24. Banks, companies and the energy sector have been hit. Well over 1,000 officials are subject to asset freezes and travel bans.

Japan stepped up its sanctions in February, freezing assets of Russians and Russian companies and suspending visas for some. It froze the assets of some financial institutions and banned exports of items that can be used for military purposes, dual-use goods, some commodities and semiconductors.

Canada has sanctioned dozens of Russians and Russian companies, including leaders of Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom and six energy sector entities.

WHY THEY SAY MORE SANCTIONS ARE NEEDED

G7 officials say they are seeing more and more evasion of sanctions. “High tech exports to third countries, from micro-processors and sensors for Russian cruise missiles to chips in military communications equipment, make their way onwards to Russia and end up in weapons used against Ukraine on the battlefield. We must put a stop to this,” von der Leyen said Friday.

THE IMPACT OF SANCTIONS SO FAR

Western sanctions have hit Russian banks, wealthy individuals and technology imports. Initially, the ruble plunged, foreign businesses fled and prices soared. A top Treasury Department official said US sanctions and export controls have degraded Russia’s ability to replace more than 9,000 pieces of military equipment lost in the war. But economic life for ordinary Russians hasn't changed much.

Russia's exports to China, India and Türkiye have surged since sanctions were imposed following the invasion of Ukraine, while those to Western countries and their allies Japan and South Korea have fallen sharply. The sanctions on Russian fossil fuels — such as the price cap on oil — have worked but their impact has been blunted by surging exports to China and India. Russia has managed to continue importing computer chips and other high tech items from the US that have been routed through other transit points like Hong Kong and Taiwan.



Aviation Experts: Russia's Air Defense Fire Likely Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
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Aviation Experts: Russia's Air Defense Fire Likely Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)

Aviation experts said Thursday that Russian air defense fire was likely responsible for the Azerbaijani plane crash the day before that killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.
Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 was en route from Azerbaijan's capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons still unclear and crashed while making an attempt to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea.
The plane went down about 3 kilometers (around 2 miles) from Aktau. Cellphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before smashing into the ground and exploding in a fireball.
Other footage showed part of its fuselage ripped away from the wings and the rest of the aircraft lying upside down in the grass.
Azerbaijan mourned the crash victims with national flags at half-staff across the country on Thursday. Traffic stopped at noon, and signals sounded from ships and trains as it observed a nationwide moment of silence.
Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.
“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” The Associated Press quoted him as saying.
Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.
As the official crash investigation started, some experts alleged that holes seen in the plane’s tail section could indicate that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.
Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the provincial capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. An official in Chechnya said another drone attack on the region was fended off on Wednesday, although federal authorities didn't report it.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said that the analysis of the images of fragments of the crashed plane indicate that it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile, or SAM.
“Much more to investigate, but at high level we'd put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99% bracket,” he said.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.” Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines halted their flights during the war.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”
Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the crashed plane's tail reveal the damage compatible with shrapnel from a small surface-to-air missiles, such as the Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.
“It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he said.
Matveyev added that it remains unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land at a closer airport in Russia after the plane was hit.
“Perhaps some of the plane's systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally,” Matveyev said, adding that the crew could also have faced restrictions on landing at another venue in Russia.
Caliber, an Azerbaijani news website with good government connections, also claimed that the airliner was fired upon by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense system as it was approaching Grozny. It questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the apparent drone raid in the area. Khamzat Kadyrov, head of Chechnya's Security Council, said that air defenses downed drones attacking the region on Wednesday.
Caliber also wondered why Russian authorities didn't allow the plane to make an emergency landing in Grozny or other Russian airports nearby after it was hit.
Asked about the claims that the plane had been fired upon by air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”
Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, also warned against rushing to conclusions based on pictures of the plane’s fragments, describing the allegations of air defense fire as unfounded and unethical.
Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have similarly avoided comment on a possible cause of the crash, saying it will be up to investigators to determine it.
According to Kazakh officials, those aboard the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyzstan nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry on Thursday flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.