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Rouhani, Larijani Await 'Positive Signs' to Enter Election Race

Former President Hassan Rouhani and his ally, former Speaker Ali Larijani, during an event in Tehran (Jamaran)
Former President Hassan Rouhani and his ally, former Speaker Ali Larijani, during an event in Tehran (Jamaran)
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Rouhani, Larijani Await 'Positive Signs' to Enter Election Race

Former President Hassan Rouhani and his ally, former Speaker Ali Larijani, during an event in Tehran (Jamaran)
Former President Hassan Rouhani and his ally, former Speaker Ali Larijani, during an event in Tehran (Jamaran)

Reformist sources have revealed that former President Hassan Rouhani and his ally, former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, are eagerly awaiting "positive indications" from the authorities to actively participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for February.

Larijani and Rouhani, both affiliated with the moderate conservative movement, are looking to reestablish their alliance with the "reformist movement" to return to the forefront of the political scene.

The reformist news website "Insaaf News" reported that prominent figures within the moderate faction will kick off election activities if they perceive positive signs from the authorities.

According to the sources, Rouhani and Larijani are expected to take on prominent roles in the upcoming parliamentary elections. They plan to present a joint electoral list, contingent upon the fulfillment of "honorable and legal" participation conditions.

The sources said the list will be supported by former reformist President Mohammed Khatami, his ally Hasan Khomeini, the grandson of the late Supreme Leader Khomeini, and Ali Akbar Nategh-Nouri, close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

They believe that Khatami and Nategh-Nouri can help the two currents and encourage their supporters to participate in the elections "if the right conditions are met."

Ensaf News reported that Hasan Khomeini is "a central figure among the moderates" and can influence political and social events in the country.

However, a close source said that the issues raised about the electoral activities of Rouhani and Larijani are more like "speculations and analysis."

The website indicated that some members of the five figures' teams are skeptical about the recent developments, fearing they would engage in electoral activities without providing the requirements for participation.

However, the Ensaf website expected a "moderate electoral coalition" would be welcomed by the "conservative coalition" that controls the government and most parliamentary seats because their political activities will not stand out without rivals.

Rouhani lived semi-isolation after his presidential term ended, especially since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei did not appoint him to the Expediency Discernment Council, as he did with former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

- Elections

Last April, Rouhani called for holding free elections and a referendum on foreign and domestic policy and economic management.

Larijani's role in the Iranian political arena has been restricted after he was removed from the presidential elections following a decision of the Guardian Council.

Aside from the parliamentary elections, Iran will witness the polls for the Assembly of Experts for Leadership, which includes 88 influential clerics who name the successor to the current Supreme Leader if he cannot carry out his duties.

The Assembly of Experts elections are also important and sensitive. The past elections sparked controversy after Hassan Khomeini was removed from the list of candidates for not meeting the conditions.

Rouhani, Hassan Khomeini, and Nategh-Nouri could be on the list of candidates, knowing that Khomeini's grandson is one of the primary candidates to succeed Khamenei.

The upcoming legislative elections come after the widespread popular protests that the authorities accused the Western powers of "supporting" in the wake of the death of the young Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, last September.

- Confirmation of participation

Khamenei rejected requests for a referendum on the fate of the origin of the ruling establishment to overcome the current structure and establish a secular system of elections, and decide on the eligibility of candidates.

In one of his speeches last April, the Supreme Leader urged senior officials to define strategies for participation, competition, security, and integrity in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

The Guardian Council then announced that it had started setting up procedures for the upcoming February elections.

Recently, the Minister of the Interior, Ahmed Vahidi, issued instructions to the governors of the provinces to reduce communication and cooperation with lawmakers.

Vahidi's decision sparked controversy, and more than 200 lawmakers tabled a motion to impeach him. But Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said that the Minister requested a two-week postponement.

President Ebrahim Raisi said that the government, as the executive of the elections, will not interfere in the affairs of the candidates and in supporting or creating restrictions for them.

The Iranian presidency website quoted Raisi saying at the Sunday cabinet meeting that holding healthy, competitive, and high-participation elections promotes national security and public trust.

- Reform movement

The reformist parties affiliated with the "Reform Front" nominated the activist Azar Mansouri as its head, according to the Etemad Online website.

Mansouri, 59, who has close ties to former President Mohammad Khatami, will succeed the reform activist Behzad Nabavi, who held the post for two years.

Mansouri was among the reformist activists arrested after the Green Movement protests that hit the country after the reformists questioned the 2009 presidential elections after Ahmadinejad won a second term.

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Satellite Images Suggest North Korea Expanding Missile Plant, Researchers Say

A satellite image shows a suspected missile assembly building under construction (lower center of photo) at the "February 11 Plant" near Hamhung, North Korea in this handout image obtained by Reuters on November 20, 2024. (Planet Labs PBC/Handout via Reuters)
A satellite image shows a suspected missile assembly building under construction (lower center of photo) at the "February 11 Plant" near Hamhung, North Korea in this handout image obtained by Reuters on November 20, 2024. (Planet Labs PBC/Handout via Reuters)
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Satellite Images Suggest North Korea Expanding Missile Plant, Researchers Say

A satellite image shows a suspected missile assembly building under construction (lower center of photo) at the "February 11 Plant" near Hamhung, North Korea in this handout image obtained by Reuters on November 20, 2024. (Planet Labs PBC/Handout via Reuters)
A satellite image shows a suspected missile assembly building under construction (lower center of photo) at the "February 11 Plant" near Hamhung, North Korea in this handout image obtained by Reuters on November 20, 2024. (Planet Labs PBC/Handout via Reuters)

North Korea is expanding a key weapons manufacturing complex that assembles a type of short-range missile used by Russia in Ukraine, researchers at a US-based think tank have concluded, based on satellite images.

The facility, known as the February 11 plant, is part of the Ryongsong Machine Complex in Hamhung, North Korea's second-largest city, on the country's east coast.

Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), located at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, said the plant was the only one known to produce the Hwasong-11 class of solid-fuel ballistic missiles. Ukrainian officials say these munitions - known as the KN-23 in the West - have been used by Russian forces in their assault on Ukraine.

The expansion of the complex has not been previously reported.

Both Moscow and Pyongyang have denied that North Korea has transferred weapons for Russia to use against Ukraine, which it invaded in February 2022. Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense treaty at a summit in June and have pledged to boost their military ties.

North Korea's mission to the United Nations did not respond to a request for comment for this story.

The satellite images, taken in early October by the commercial satellite firm Planet Labs, show what appears to be an additional assembly building under construction as well as a new housing facility, likely intended for workers, according to the analysis by researchers at CNS.

It also appears that Pyongyang is improving the entrances for some of the underground facilities at the complex.

A disused bridge crane that was in front of a tunnel entrance, blocking easy access, was removed, suggesting they might be placing an emphasis on that part of the facility, Lair said.

"We see this as a suggestion that they're massively increasing, or they're trying to significantly increase, the throughput of this factory," Lair said.

The new assembly building is about 60 to 70 percent the size of the previous building used to assemble missiles.

In 2023, state media published images, which Reuters has reviewed, showing North Korean leader Kim Jong Un walking through new buildings at the complex in Hamhung, where workers were assembling tail kits and nose cones for what appeared to be the KN-23, according to analysts.

In the past, publicly released videos from North Korean state media show that the complex has produced everything from tank wheels to the casings for rocket motors, Lair said.

LOW-FLYING MISSILES

The KN-23 was first tested in May 2019, and is designed to evade missile defenses by flying on a lower, "depressed" trajectory, experts have told Reuters, making them potentially useful for Russia as it seeks ways to penetrate Ukraine's air defenses.

Russia has fired thousands of missiles since the invasion. Leaning on North Korea for additional supplies could ease the strain on its own production facilities, Lair said.

North Korea's state news agency KCNA has reported that construction is underway at the Ryongsong Machine Complex.

This month, KCNA said the facility "is pushing ahead with the projects for attaining the goal for modernization planned for this year." The work includes rebuilding production facilities as well as assembling and installing equipment at machine workshops and a steel casting workshop, it said.

Researchers at SI Analytics, a South Korean satellite imagery firm that uses AI technology to scour images, also confirmed the new construction at the February 11 plant, saying in a report on Monday that some of the construction near the loading area would likely be used to conceal the future operations of the factory from satellites.

"Considering the presence of numerous construction materials, vehicles, and open-top freight cars loaded with materials around the site, the construction appears to be progressing rapidly," the firm said. The report said the facility was used to produce ballistic missiles, without naming the KN-23.

Michael Duitsman, also a research associate at CNS, said it was possible that the new construction revealed in the satellite images could be a storage facility, but he believed it was more likely a new assembly building.

North Korean missiles account for a fraction of Russia's strikes during its war on Ukraine, but their alleged use has caused alarm in Seoul and Washington because it suggests an end of nearly two-decade consensus among UN Security Council permanent members on preventing Pyongyang from expanding its ballistic missile programs.

SI Analytics said on Monday it had also identified new construction at the nearby February 8 Vinalon Complex, which is believed to produce fuel for ballistic missiles. The construction may be aimed at boosting production of solid propellants or UDMH, an important liquid rocket engine fuel, the report said.

Joseph Dempsey, a military analyst with London's International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that North Korea's expansion of short-range ballistic missile facilities would likely be motivated mainly by a desire to boost the country's own arsenal.

He said it was unclear to what extent Pyongyang may have expanded production capacity to meet the demands of its new cooperation with Moscow.

More than 10,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to the Russian region of Kursk, where Ukraine launched a major cross-border incursion in August, according to Washington, Kyiv and Seoul.

The troops will fight as part of Russia's airborne unit and marines, with some already participating in battles in the Ukraine war, a South Korean lawmaker who sits on the parliamentary intelligence committee said on Wednesday.

Russia has not denied the involvement of North Korean troops in the war, which it has been waging in Ukraine since launching a full-scale invasion in February 2022.