Russia Strikes Ukraine Grain Ports After Pulling Out of Export Deal 

This handout satellite image taken and released by Maxar Technologies on July 17, 2023, shows a portion with damages on the Kerch bridge, linking the Russian mainland to Crimea, after an explosion claimed by Ukrainian forces. (Photo by Satellite image ゥ2023 Maxar Technologies / AFP)
This handout satellite image taken and released by Maxar Technologies on July 17, 2023, shows a portion with damages on the Kerch bridge, linking the Russian mainland to Crimea, after an explosion claimed by Ukrainian forces. (Photo by Satellite image ゥ2023 Maxar Technologies / AFP)
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Russia Strikes Ukraine Grain Ports After Pulling Out of Export Deal 

This handout satellite image taken and released by Maxar Technologies on July 17, 2023, shows a portion with damages on the Kerch bridge, linking the Russian mainland to Crimea, after an explosion claimed by Ukrainian forces. (Photo by Satellite image ゥ2023 Maxar Technologies / AFP)
This handout satellite image taken and released by Maxar Technologies on July 17, 2023, shows a portion with damages on the Kerch bridge, linking the Russian mainland to Crimea, after an explosion claimed by Ukrainian forces. (Photo by Satellite image ゥ2023 Maxar Technologies / AFP)

Russia struck Ukrainian ports on Tuesday, a day after pulling out of a UN-backed deal to let Kyiv export grain, and Moscow claimed gains on the ground in an area where Ukrainian officials said Russian forces were going back on the offensive. 

Russia said it hit fuel storage in Odesa and a plant making seaborne drones there, as part of "mass revenge strikes" in retaliation for attacks by Ukraine that knocked out its road bridge to the occupied Crimean Peninsula. 

Shortly after the bridge was hit on Monday, Moscow withdrew from a year-old UN-brokered grain export deal, a move the United Nations said risked creating hunger around the world. 

Falling debris and blast waves damaged several homes and unspecified port infrastructure in one of Ukraine's main ports, Odesa, according to Ukraine's southern operational military command. Local authorities in Mykolaiv, another port, described a serious fire there. 

The Russian attacks on ports provide "further proof that the country-terrorist wants to endanger the lives of 400 million people in various countries that depend on Ukrainian food exports", said Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine's presidential staff. 

Ukraine's air force said six Kalibr missiles and 31 out of 36 drones were shot down. Moscow, for its part, said it had foiled a Ukrainian drone strike on Crimea, with no major damage on the ground, and reopened a single lane of road traffic on the Crimea bridge. 

Six weeks since Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in the east and south, Russia is mounting a ground offensive of its own in the northeast. 

Russia's defense ministry said its forces had advanced 2 km (1.2 miles) in the vicinity of Kupiansk, a frontline railway hub recaptured by Ukraine in an offensive last year. Kyiv acknowledged a "complicated" situation in the area. Reuters could not independently verify the situation. 

Since Ukraine began its counteroffensive last month, Kyiv has recaptured some villages in the south and territory around the ruined city of Bakhmut in the east, but has yet to attempt a major breakthrough across heavily defended Russian lines. 

'A blow to people in need' 

The Black Sea grain export deal brokered a year ago by Türkiye and the United Nations was one of the only diplomatic successes of the war, lifting a de facto Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports and heading off a global food emergency. 

Ukraine and Russia are both among the world's biggest exporters of grain and other foodstuffs. If Ukrainian grain is again blocked from the market, prices could soar around the world, hitting the poorest countries hardest. 

"Today's decision by the Russian Federation will strike a blow to people in need everywhere," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Monday. 

Moscow spurned calls from Ukraine to allow shipping to resume without Russian participation, with the Kremlin openly saying ships entering the area without its guarantees would be in danger. 

"We're talking about an area that's close to a war zone," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "Without the appropriate security guarantees, certain risks arise there. So if something is formalized without Russia, these risks should be taken into account." 

Russia says it could return to the grain deal, but only if its demands are met for rules to be eased for its own exports of food and fertilizer. Western countries call that an attempt to use leverage over food supplies to force a weakening in financial sanctions, which already allow Russia to sell food. 

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called for the grain deal to continue without Russia, effectively seeking Türkiye’s backing to negate the Russian blockade. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the deal's sponsor, says he thinks Moscow can be persuaded to return. 

Any attempt to reopen Ukrainian grain shipments without Russia's participation would depend on insurance companies agreeing to provide coverage. Industry sources have told Reuters they are considering the implications. 

Slow counteroffensive 

Russia's claim on Tuesday to have advanced around Kupiansk was a rare sign of Moscow attempting go back on the offensive since Kyiv launched its counteroffensive last month. 

Both sides have endured bitter losses in Europe's bloodiest combat since World War Two, yet front lines have moved only incrementally since last November, despite a massive Russian winter offensive followed by Ukraine's counterassault. 

"For two days running, the enemy has been actively on the offensive in the Kupiansk sector in Kharkiv region," Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar wrote on Telegram. 

"We are defending. Heavy fighting is going on and the positions of both sides change dynamically several times a day." 

Oleksander Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, described the situation in that area as "complicated but under control". Serhiy Cherevatyi, spokesperson for Ukraine's eastern grouping of forces, said the Russian military had amassed more than 100,000 troops and more than 900 tanks in the area. 

Ukraine's counteroffensive has made limited gains near Bakhmut and along two major axes in the south, but its assault force equipped with billions of dollars worth of new Western weapons and ammunition has yet to confront the main Russian defensive line. 

Kyiv says it is deliberately advancing slowly to avoid high casualties on fortified defensive lines strewn with landmines, and is focused for now on degrading Russia's logistics and command. Moscow says the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed.  



Iran Awaits Trump's Policy on its Nuclear Program

This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)
This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)
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Iran Awaits Trump's Policy on its Nuclear Program

This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)
This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)

One of the many complex foreign policy problems that Donald Trump will inherit when he takes office in just over two weeks is Iran, according to the US Council on Foreign Relations.

Iran is on the threshold of becoming a nuclear power, its robust ballistic missile program continues to progress, and it sees the United States as the main obstacle to its domination of the Middle East, the Council wrote in an analysis.

“How will Trump respond,” it then asked, “That question is easy to answer because Trump has been consistent about his plans. He will return to his first administration’s policy of “maximum pressure.”

That effort sought to turn the economic screws on Iran by expanding US sanctions against it and ratcheting up the enforcement of sanctions already in place.

“The goal was not regime change but rather forcing Tehran to limit its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and curb support for the regional militias that made up the so-called axis of resistance,” the Council said.

It added that although maximum pressure squeezed the Iranian economy, it failed to force Tehran to the bargaining table.

The Council said even as its economy faltered and its foreign reserves dwindled, Iran continued its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, expanded its support for its regional proxies, and even launched a missile attack against a US base in Iraq in 2020.

“Would the maximum pressure campaign have paid off had the Biden administration kept it in place? Trump thinks so,” it wrote.

The Council said evidence on that score is mixed.

“Israel’s wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, have weakened Iran’s position in the region. Its proxies are fewer and weaker than just six months ago.”

Beyond that, Israel’s October retaliatory air strikes destroyed much of Iran’s air defenses, leaving it open to further military attacks.

Nuclear Program

According to the Council, that vulnerability, coupled with Iran’s economic woes and domestic unrest, may be why Iran’s foreign minister said that Iran is looking to resume nuclear talks.

By the same token, however, a maximum pressure strategy takes time to work.

“That could be in short supply, at least when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program,” according to the Council.

It said Iran intensified its uranium-enrichment efforts after Trump terminated the 2015 nuclear deal that the Obama administration negotiated.

By most estimates, it added, Iran can now build a small number of nuclear weapons within weeks of deciding to cross the nuclear threshold.

The Council on Foreign Relations also noted that other great powers will also undermine the maximum pressure policy.

“China and Russia have both skirted or ignored existing US and multilateral sanctions on Iran. They are unlikely to comply with them now unless they get something significant from the United States in return,” it said.

The Council also showed that Trump may be unwilling or unable to provide that enticement. “If Tehran believes that Beijing and Moscow have its back, resistance becomes a more feasible strategy. Tehran could even use negotiations as a way to buy time to address its vulnerabilities,” it added.

Negotiations in Good Faith

Even if Iran enters into negotiations in good faith, Trump’s efforts could stumble over deciding what deal is good enough, the Council wrote.

It said the ideological diversity of his team, composed as it is of hardliners and American Firsters, makes it likely they will argue over what Tehran needs to concede to make a deal worthwhile. That internal division could torpedo the effort to get a deal.

“All of this raises the question of what happens if talks either do not begin or, perhaps more likely, go nowhere once they do,” the Council noted.

It said calls for the US to attack Iran’s nuclear sites are likely to mount if the maximum pressure campaign does not produce quick results. “Trump will also likely hear calls that he should encourage Israel to attack Iran, though Israel lacks the capability to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.”

According to the Council, Tehran will be assessing Trump’s willingness to use military force, as well as Israel’s military capabilities, as it thinks about negotiations.

It said Iranian leaders know he ordered the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in 2020, spoke on the campaign trail about blowing Iran “to smithereens” and has said that Israel should hit Iran’s nuclear sites.

But they also know that he campaigned against America’s “forever wars” in the Middle East while boasting, wrongly, that he is “the only president in seventy-two years” that “had no wars.”

According to the Council, resorting to military force, whether with direct US action or by encouraging Israel to attack, would be a major roll of the dice.

“It might succeed beyond its planners’ wildest dreams and usher in a new, more peaceful era in the Middle East,” it said.

Or, like the invasion of Iraq, it may open a Pandora’s Box of problems that will haunt the region and the United States for years to come, the Council showed.

But letting Iran continue its nuclear and ballistic missile programs while it rebuilds its axis of resistance has costs of its own, it noted.

Therefore, the Council said some hope that a return to the maximum pressure strategy works.