Michigan Takeaways: Presidential Primaries Show Warning Signs for Trump and Biden 

A voter stands in a voting booth at polling site located at Warren E. Bow Elementary School during voting in the 2024 presidential primary election in Detroit, Michigan, US, 27 February 2024. (EPA)
A voter stands in a voting booth at polling site located at Warren E. Bow Elementary School during voting in the 2024 presidential primary election in Detroit, Michigan, US, 27 February 2024. (EPA)
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Michigan Takeaways: Presidential Primaries Show Warning Signs for Trump and Biden 

A voter stands in a voting booth at polling site located at Warren E. Bow Elementary School during voting in the 2024 presidential primary election in Detroit, Michigan, US, 27 February 2024. (EPA)
A voter stands in a voting booth at polling site located at Warren E. Bow Elementary School during voting in the 2024 presidential primary election in Detroit, Michigan, US, 27 February 2024. (EPA)

Joe Biden and Donald Trump easily won their party’s primaries in Michigan, but Tuesday’s results showed that both candidates have cause for concern in their bid to win the swing state in November.

An “uncommitted” vote in Michigan's Democratic primary was the first indication of how backlash over President Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza might impact his reelection campaign. Trump won his primary by a large margin, but support for rival Nikki Haley once again showed that some Republican voters may have misgivings about giving the former president another four years in the general election.

Here are some takeaways from Michigan:

Biden, Trump each move closer to party's nomination Michigan was the last major primary state before Super Tuesday, and both sides were watching closely for implications for the November general election in one of the few genuine swing states left in the country.

Biden has now cruised to victories over lesser known candidates in South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire, which he won in a write-in campaign. Tuesday's results show that his standing is still strong in Michigan, which Biden returned to the Democratic column in 2020.

Trump has swept all five of the early state contests, including South Carolina, the home state of rival Haley. He now heads into Super Tuesday, when 15 states and one territory hold Republican nominating contests, as the overwhelming favorite to lock up the Republican nomination.

Michigan was one of three so-called blue wall states, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, that Trump won in 2016. He predicted a big win beforehand.

Just 16 of Michigan’s 55 Republican presidential delegates will be determined by the primary results, while the remaining delegates will be allocated during a March 2 convention. Trump’s anticipated dominance at the state convention, where grassroots activists will play a key role, will decide the allocation of the remaining 39 GOP delegates.

Some Democrats express anger over Gaza with “uncommitted” vote Michigan has become the focal point of Democratic frustration regarding the White House’s actions in the Israel-Hamas conflict. It has the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the nation.

That anger came through loud and clear on Tuesday as some voters marked “uncommitted” on their ballot in the Democratic primary. Biden still dominated the primary, but the result could be a concern in a state he won by less than 3% in 2020 and likely can’t afford to lose this year.

Organizers of the “uncommitted” movement had purposely kept expectations low, having only seriously begun their push a few weeks ago. The “Listen to Michigan” campaign that organized the push said they were hoping for 10,000 votes, pointing to Trump’s win of less than 11,000 votes in 2016 to show the significance of that number.

When Barack Obama ran for reelection in 2012, the last time a Democratic presidential incumbent sought re-election, the “uncommitted” option received close to 21,000 votes — or 11 percentage points.

The “uncommitted” vote totals would need to be between 20 and 30 percentage points for Democrats to worry about their impact in November, said Richard Czuba, a pollster who has long tracked Michigan politics.

“Twenty percent gets my attention. If it rises to 25%, that gets a lot more attention and if it rises above 30%, I think that’s a signal that Joe Biden has pretty substantial issues in his base,” said Czuba.

Much of the “uncommitted” vote was expected to come from the east side of the state, in communities such as Dearborn and Hamtramck, where Arab Americans represent close to half of the population. Biden won Dearborn by a roughly 3-to-1 advantage in 2020 and Hamtramck by a 5 to 1 margin.

Some Republicans still oppose Trump Despite Trump's clear victory in Michigan, Haley still saw significant support from the swing state's Republicans.

Some of her best results came in Oakland and Kent counties, where Democrats have been gaining ground in recent years, contributing to their recent statewide success. She also performed better in counties where the state’s largest universities are located, Washtenaw and Ingham counties.

Trump has dominated in primaries with help from his base but his strength among general election voters remains unclear. The former president has appeared in Michigan regularly in the eight years since he became president, while Haley only began stumping in the state over the weekend.

AP VoteCast reveals that a large portion of Trump’s opposition within the Republican primaries has come from voters who abandoned him before this year.

All three statewide Republican candidates that Trump endorsed in the 2022 midterms were crushed by Democratic incumbents.



Trump Says he and Putin Have Agreed to Begin Negotiations on Ending War

FILE – Then-US President Donald Trump, right, meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit in Hamburg, Germany, Friday, July 7, 2017. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)
FILE – Then-US President Donald Trump, right, meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit in Hamburg, Germany, Friday, July 7, 2017. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)
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Trump Says he and Putin Have Agreed to Begin Negotiations on Ending War

FILE – Then-US President Donald Trump, right, meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit in Hamburg, Germany, Friday, July 7, 2017. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)
FILE – Then-US President Donald Trump, right, meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit in Hamburg, Germany, Friday, July 7, 2017. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

President Donald Trump upended three years of US policy toward Ukraine on Wednesday, saying that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to begin negotiations on ending the war following a dramatic prisoner swap.

Trump said in a social media post that he and Putin held a lengthy phone call during which they committed to “work together, very closely” to bring the conflict to an end and would meet in person, including perhaps in each other's countries.
It was unclear how closely Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would be involved. Although Trump held a phone call with him Wednesday, Ukrainian presidential adviser Dmytro Lytvyn said, characterizing it as a "good conversation," The Associated Press reported.
Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump's special Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired Gen. Keith Kellogg, will all be in Germany later this week for the annual Munich Security Conference, which Zelenskyy will also attend.
However, in a blow to Ukraine's aspirations, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said earlier Wednesday at NATO headquarters in Brussels that NATO membership was not realistic for Ukraine and said that any security guarantees for the country would have to be born by European countries.
The Biden administration had joined other NATO members since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 in vowing that membership in the alliance was “inevitable.”
And Trump's announcement appeared to dismantle the Biden-era mantra that Kyiv would be a full participant in any decisions made. “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” Biden and his top national security aides said repeatedly.
Wednesday's Trump-Putin call and resulting policy sea change, followed a prisoner swap that resulted in Russia releasing American schoolteacher Marc Fogel, of Pennsylvania, after more than three years of detention in return for convicted Russian criminal Alexander Vinnik.
“We each talked about the strengths of our respective Nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together,” Trump said in a social media post disclosing details about the call. "But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine.
Trump said they also “agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately” and would be alerting Zelenskyy to their conversation. He appointed Rubio, CIA director John Ratcliffe, national security advisor Michael Waltz, and his special Mideast envoy Steven Witkoff to lead those talks.
White House officials later declined to clarify whether Ukraine would be a party to the U.S. negotiations with Russia.
But, they described the prisoner swap as evidence of a diplomatic thaw that could advance negotiations to end the fighting in Ukraine.
Fogel, an American history teacher who was deemed wrongfully detained by Russia, was arrested in August 2021 for possession of marijuana and was serving a 14-year prison sentence. He had been left out of previous prisoner swaps with Russia that were negotiated by the Biden administration.
Vinnik — the other person involved, according to two US officials — was arrested in 2017 in Greece at the request of the US on cryptocurrency fraud charges and was later extradited to the United States, where he pleaded guilty last year to conspiracy to commit money laundering.
He is currently in custody in California awaiting transport to return to Russia, the officials said. The Kremlin confirmed that a Russian citizen was freed in the United States in exchange for Fogel but refused to identify him until he arrives in Russia.
Trump had welcomed Fogel at the White House on Tuesday evening after his return to US soil on Witkoff's personal plane. On Wednesday, Trump declined to say if he spoke with Putin about Fogel and didn't say what the United States had provided in exchange for Fogel’s release.
Speaking to reporters at the White House on Tuesday, Trump suggested that Fogel's release could help anchor a peace deal on Ukraine, saying: “We were treated very nicely by Russia, actually. I hope that’s the beginning of a relationship where we can end that war.”
The Kremlin was more cautious, but it also noted that the deal could help strengthen mutual trust.