Iran’s Currency Falls to an All-Time Low as Trump Clinches the US Presidency

03 November 2024, Iran, Tehran: Iranian women walk past a mural painting along the wall of the former US embassy during an anti-US rally marking the 45th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover. Photo: Rouzbeh Fouladi/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
03 November 2024, Iran, Tehran: Iranian women walk past a mural painting along the wall of the former US embassy during an anti-US rally marking the 45th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover. Photo: Rouzbeh Fouladi/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
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Iran’s Currency Falls to an All-Time Low as Trump Clinches the US Presidency

03 November 2024, Iran, Tehran: Iranian women walk past a mural painting along the wall of the former US embassy during an anti-US rally marking the 45th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover. Photo: Rouzbeh Fouladi/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
03 November 2024, Iran, Tehran: Iranian women walk past a mural painting along the wall of the former US embassy during an anti-US rally marking the 45th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover. Photo: Rouzbeh Fouladi/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa

Iran’s currency fell on Wednesday to an all-time low as Donald Trump clinched the US presidency again, signaling new challenges ahead for Tehran as it remains locked in the wars raging in the Middle East.

The rial traded at 703,000 rials to the dollar, traders in Tehran said. The rate could still change throughout the day. Iran’s Central Bank could flood the market with more hard currencies as an attempt to improve the rate, as it has done in the past.

The slide comes as the rial already faces considerable woes over its sharp slide in value — and as the mood on the streets of Tehran among some darkened.

"One hundred percent he will intensify the sanctions," said Amir Aghaeian, a 22-year-old student. "Things that are not in our favor will be worse. Our economy and social situation will surely get worse.”

He added: "I feel the country is going to blow up.”

In 2015, at the time of Iran's nuclear deal with world powers, the rial was at 32,000 to $1. On July 30, the day that Iran's reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian was sworn in and started his term, the rate was 584,000 to $1.

Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, sparking years of tensions between the countries that persist today.

Iran's economy has struggled for years under crippling international sanctions over its rapidly advancing nuclear program, which now enriches uranium at near weapons-grade levels.

Pezeshkian, elected after a helicopter crash killed hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi in May, came to power on a promise to reach a deal to ease Western sanctions.

However, Iran's government has for weeks been trying to downplay the effect on Tehran of whoever won Tuesday's election in the United States. That stance continued on Wednesday with a brief comment from Fatemeh Mohajerani, a spokeswoman for Pezeshkian's administration.

"The election of the US president doesn't have anything specifically to do with us," she said. "The major policies of America and Iran are fixed, and they won’t heavily change by people replacing others. We have already made necessary preparations in advance.”

By midday Wednesday in the Middle East, Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States in a remarkable political comeback.

Tensions still remain high between the nations, 45 years after the 1979 US Embassy takeover and 444-day hostage crisis that followed.

Iran remains locked in the Mideast wars roiling the region, with its allies battered — armed groups and fighters of its self-described "Axis of Resistance," including the Palestinian Hamas movement, Lebanon's Hezbollah party and Yemen's Houthi militias.

Israel is pressing its war in the Gaza Strip targeting Hamas and its invasion of Lebanon amid devastating attacks against Hezbollah. At the same time, Iran still appears to be assessing damage from Israel’s strikes on the country on Oct. 26 in response to two Iranian ballistic missile attacks.

Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel — where US troops now man a missile defense battery.



China Will Work with US, Government Says, but More Rivalry Expected under Trump

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning, during a press conference on the US elections, in Beijing, China, 06 November 2024. (EPA)
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning, during a press conference on the US elections, in Beijing, China, 06 November 2024. (EPA)
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China Will Work with US, Government Says, but More Rivalry Expected under Trump

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning, during a press conference on the US elections, in Beijing, China, 06 November 2024. (EPA)
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning, during a press conference on the US elections, in Beijing, China, 06 November 2024. (EPA)

China will work with the US on the basis of mutual respect, it said on Wednesday as Donald Trump closed in on victory in the presidential election, but strategists said Beijing was bracing for bitter superpower rivalry over trade, technology and security issues.

"Our policy towards the US is consistent," Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Mao Ning told a regular press conference in Beijing, when asked how Trump returning to the Oval Office would affect US-China relations.

"We will continue to view and handle China-US relations in accordance with the principles of mutual respect, peaceful co-existence and win-win cooperation," she added.

Chinese strategists however said they expected more fiery rhetoric and potentially crippling tariffs from Trump, although some said his isolationist foreign policy could give Beijing a vacuum to expand its global influence.

"Beijing anticipated a close race in the US election. Although Trump's victory is not China's preferred outcome and raises concerns, it is not entirely unexpected," said Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"The Chinese leadership will likely strive to maintain an appearance of a cordial personal relationship with Trump, while intensifying efforts to project China's power and strength."

Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said Trump's victory "may pose a relatively large challenge to Sino-US relations" based on his campaign policy proposals and actions in his previous term.

"Due to Trump's high unpredictability, I think it is difficult for China to say that there is a fully formed plan to do "x" when Trump comes to power. It also depends on what policies the Trump administration implements."

TRUMP TARIFF THREAT

Trump has proposed tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60% and ending China’s most-favored-nation trading status, and analysts say the prospect of a trade war has rattled China's leadership.

China sells goods worth more than $400 billion annually to the US and hundreds of billions more in components for products Americans buy from elsewhere.

"Beijing is particularly wary of a potential revival of the trade war under Trump, especially as China currently faces significant internal economic challenges," said Zhao.

"China also expects Trump to accelerate the decoupling of technologies and supply chains, a move that could threaten China's economic growth and indirectly impact its social and political stability."

In response, China is likely to intensify its push for greater technological and economic self-sufficiency, while feeling more pressure to bolster economic ties with countries like Russia, he added.

"Going forward, Beijing would likely be drawing up a list of clear bargains and interest tradeoffs that it could float with Washington, in hope that it can focus on its much-needed domestic economic concerns whilst Trump's attention is occupied elsewhere," said Brian Wong, assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong who studies grand strategy.

GLOBAL POWER VACUUM

China is likely to shore up ties with the Global South, Europe and Northeast Asian countries in the event of a Trump win, given his "transactional, isolationist, anti-globalist and anti-multilateral foreign policy", said Wong.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached a rare rapprochement last month, while Beijing has tentatively reached out to the new Japanese administration this autumn following years of strained relations.

"China expects the second Trump administration to further disengage from international agreements and commitments, creating opportunities for China to expand its influence in emerging power vacuums," Zhao added.

Trump has unnerved democratically governed Taiwan by saying it should pay Washington for its defense and that it had taken US semiconductor business.

"The Biden administration applied high-pressure tactics to China on Taiwan, with US troops stationed in Taiwan and even giving weapons to Taiwan ... in a huge break with the former Trump administration's Taiwan policy," said Shen Dingli, an international relations scholar in Shanghai. Washington last month approved a US$2 billion arms sale to Taiwan.

"Trump is not too likely to give Taiwan the same support in future."