Report: China Could Launch Military Drills Near Taiwan over President’s Pacific Visit

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te waves to the crowd on national day to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China, Taiwan's formal name, in Taipei, Taiwan October 10, 2024. (Reuters)
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te waves to the crowd on national day to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China, Taiwan's formal name, in Taipei, Taiwan October 10, 2024. (Reuters)
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Report: China Could Launch Military Drills Near Taiwan over President’s Pacific Visit

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te waves to the crowd on national day to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China, Taiwan's formal name, in Taipei, Taiwan October 10, 2024. (Reuters)
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te waves to the crowd on national day to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China, Taiwan's formal name, in Taipei, Taiwan October 10, 2024. (Reuters)

China is likely to launch military drills in the coming days near Taiwan, using President Lai Ching-te's upcoming trip to the Pacific and scheduled US transit as a pretext, according to assessments by Taiwan and regional security officials.

Lai will start a visit to Taipei's three diplomatic allies in the Pacific on Saturday, and sources told Reuters he was planning stops in Hawaii and the US territory of Guam in a sensitive trip coming shortly after the US election.

China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and the most important issue in its relations with Washington, has a strong dislike of Lai whom Beijing calls a "separatist".

Lai's office has yet to confirm details of what are officially stop-overs in the United States, but is expected to do so shortly before he departs, sources familiar with the trip have previously said.

Beijing could conduct military maneuvers around or shortly after Lai's trip which ends on Dec. 6, said four officials in the region briefed on the matter, who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

China's defense ministry did not respond to a request for comment, though the government has urged the United States not to permit Lai to transit.

Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, said on Wednesday that Lai's transit stops were "essentially provocative acts that violate the one-China principle".

Taiwan's defense ministry and the White House did not respond to a request for comment.

China has already staged two rounds of major exercises around Taiwan this year to pressure Taipei, one in May and one in October, dubbed "Joint Sword - 2024A" and B, respectively.

China could "repackage" ongoing regular military activities in the South China Sea or the East China Sea, moving them closer to Taiwan and rebranding them "Joint Sword - 2024C," according to a Taiwan security official.

Beijing could expand the size of its regular "joint combat readiness patrol" that typically involves naval and air force drills near Taiwan during Lai's visit and launch a "targeted" exercise towards the end of the trip, the source said.

Between 20 and 30 Chinese naval vessels are involved in the ongoing military maneuvers this week in the South China Sea, the source added.

'RED LINE'

Beijing wants to show the incoming US administration of President-elect Donald Trump that the first island chain is "China's sphere of influence" and Lai's trip could become a "pretext", the official said, referring to an area that runs from Japan through Taiwan, the Philippines and on to Borneo, enclosing China's coastal seas.

"Beijing hopes to draw a red line and establish its power" during the US government transition and extend its sphere of influence, the official said, adding the military drills were meant for the United States and its allies.

A second source, a Taiwan-based regional security official, said the drills would probably be more limited in scope than the two earlier rounds this year given unstable winter weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.

A third source, familiar with security assessments around Taiwan, said China could use exercises in the coming weeks to test the bottom line of the Trump administration.

Two of the sources said more favorable weather conditions may prompt an earlier or delayed display of force in the days around Lai's trip.

Taiwan presidents typically take advantage of stop-overs in the United States going to and from far-flung allies to give speeches and meet with friendly politicians. Lai will be visiting the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau, three of the 12 remaining countries maintaining official diplomatic ties with Taipei.

It would not be unprecedented for China to respond militarily to this trip. It did so in August of last year when then-Vice President Lai returned from the United States, and in April of last year upon then-President Tsai Ing-wen's return from California.

Lai and his ruling Democratic Progressive Party reject Beijing's sovereignty claims, saying only Taiwan's people can decide their future.



Iran Says Seeks ‘Real and Fair’ Deal in Nuclear Talks with US

A man holds an anti-US banner during a rally in support of Gaza, in Tehran, Iran April 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
A man holds an anti-US banner during a rally in support of Gaza, in Tehran, Iran April 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
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Iran Says Seeks ‘Real and Fair’ Deal in Nuclear Talks with US

A man holds an anti-US banner during a rally in support of Gaza, in Tehran, Iran April 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
A man holds an anti-US banner during a rally in support of Gaza, in Tehran, Iran April 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

Iran seeks a "real and fair" agreement with Washington on its nuclear program, a senior aide to supreme leader Ali Khamenei said Friday, setting the stage for a diplomatic showdown this weekend in Oman.

Longtime adversaries Iran and the United States are set to hold talks on Saturday aimed at reaching a deal on Tehran's nuclear program.

US President Donald Trump last month wrote to Khamenei urging negotiations, but warning of possible military action if Iran refuses.

"Far from putting up a show and merely talking in front of the cameras, Tehran is seeking a real and fair agreement, important and implementable proposals are ready," Khamenei adviser Ali Shamkhani posted on X.

He confirmed that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was heading to Oman "with full authority for indirect negotiations with America", adding that if Washington showed goodwill, the path forward would be "smooth".

Ahead of the talks, Trump reiterated that military action was "absolutely" possible if they failed.

Iran responded by saying Tehran could expel UN nuclear inspectors, prompting another US warning that this would be an "escalation".

Iran has consistently denied seeking to acquire nuclear weapons.

On Friday, foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Iran was "giving diplomacy a genuine chance in good faith and full vigilance".

"America should appreciate this decision, which was made despite their hostile rhetoric," he said.

- 'Stupid actions' -

The talks were first announced by Trump during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington.

He said they would be high-level and "direct", but Iran insisted they would be "indirect".

"The talks will be conducted indirectly through the exchange of texts," claimed Iran's Fars news agency, without naming a source.

Araghchi and US special envoy Steve Witkoff are due to lead the talks in Oman, which has played a mediating role on the Iran nuclear issue.

Witkoff visited Iran's ally Russia on Friday for talks on Ukraine with President Vladimir Putin.

Expert-level consultations between Russia, China and Iran on nuclear issues were held in Moscow on Tuesday, Russia's foreign ministry said.

Iran has in recent months also been talking with the three European parties to the 2015 nuclear deal, Britain, France and Germany.

The 2015 accord saw sanctions relief for Iran in exchange for limits on its nuclear program.

On Friday, the European Union cautioned that there was "no alternative to diplomacy" on the Iranian nuclear issue.

Germany urged both sides to reach a "diplomatic solution", calling it a "positive development that there is a channel for dialogue between Iran and the United States".

On Thursday, Washington imposed additional sanctions on Iran, targeting its oil network and nuclear program.

Iran's nuclear agency chief Mohammad Eslami downplayed their impact.

"They applied maximum pressure with various sanctions, but they were unable to prevent the country from progressing," he said.

"They still think that they can stop this nation and country with threats and intimidation, psychological operations, or stupid actions."

- 'Threats and intimidation' -

Iran has been in the spotlight since Trump returned to office, and its regional allies have suffered major setbacks.

Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have suffered heavy losses in conflicts with Israel sparked by the Palestinian group's October 2023 attack.

Since the Gaza war began, Iran and Israel have attacked each other directly for the first time.

Warning of military action against Iran should the talks fail, Trump said US ally Israel would "obviously be very much involved in that, be the leader of that".

Khamenei's adviser Shamkhani said such threats could prompt the expulsion of UN nuclear watchdog inspectors.

"Transfer of enriched materials to secure locations may also be considered," he added of Iran's uranium enrichment activities.

While the West wants to include Iran's ballistic missile program and regional influence in negotiations, Tehran maintains it will talk only about its nuclear program.

"If the American side does not raise irrelevant issues and demands and puts aside threats and intimidation, there is a good possibility of reaching an agreement," deputy foreign minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi said.

Hardline Iranian media are skeptical about the talks.

The Kayhan newspaper warned that entering negotiations with the United States in a bid to lift sanctions was a "failed strategy".

During his first term, Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed sweeping economic sanctions.

Tehran adhered to the deal for a year before rolling back its own commitments.