Report: China Could Launch Military Drills Near Taiwan over President’s Pacific Visit

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te waves to the crowd on national day to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China, Taiwan's formal name, in Taipei, Taiwan October 10, 2024. (Reuters)
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te waves to the crowd on national day to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China, Taiwan's formal name, in Taipei, Taiwan October 10, 2024. (Reuters)
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Report: China Could Launch Military Drills Near Taiwan over President’s Pacific Visit

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te waves to the crowd on national day to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China, Taiwan's formal name, in Taipei, Taiwan October 10, 2024. (Reuters)
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te waves to the crowd on national day to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China, Taiwan's formal name, in Taipei, Taiwan October 10, 2024. (Reuters)

China is likely to launch military drills in the coming days near Taiwan, using President Lai Ching-te's upcoming trip to the Pacific and scheduled US transit as a pretext, according to assessments by Taiwan and regional security officials.

Lai will start a visit to Taipei's three diplomatic allies in the Pacific on Saturday, and sources told Reuters he was planning stops in Hawaii and the US territory of Guam in a sensitive trip coming shortly after the US election.

China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and the most important issue in its relations with Washington, has a strong dislike of Lai whom Beijing calls a "separatist".

Lai's office has yet to confirm details of what are officially stop-overs in the United States, but is expected to do so shortly before he departs, sources familiar with the trip have previously said.

Beijing could conduct military maneuvers around or shortly after Lai's trip which ends on Dec. 6, said four officials in the region briefed on the matter, who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

China's defense ministry did not respond to a request for comment, though the government has urged the United States not to permit Lai to transit.

Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, said on Wednesday that Lai's transit stops were "essentially provocative acts that violate the one-China principle".

Taiwan's defense ministry and the White House did not respond to a request for comment.

China has already staged two rounds of major exercises around Taiwan this year to pressure Taipei, one in May and one in October, dubbed "Joint Sword - 2024A" and B, respectively.

China could "repackage" ongoing regular military activities in the South China Sea or the East China Sea, moving them closer to Taiwan and rebranding them "Joint Sword - 2024C," according to a Taiwan security official.

Beijing could expand the size of its regular "joint combat readiness patrol" that typically involves naval and air force drills near Taiwan during Lai's visit and launch a "targeted" exercise towards the end of the trip, the source said.

Between 20 and 30 Chinese naval vessels are involved in the ongoing military maneuvers this week in the South China Sea, the source added.

'RED LINE'

Beijing wants to show the incoming US administration of President-elect Donald Trump that the first island chain is "China's sphere of influence" and Lai's trip could become a "pretext", the official said, referring to an area that runs from Japan through Taiwan, the Philippines and on to Borneo, enclosing China's coastal seas.

"Beijing hopes to draw a red line and establish its power" during the US government transition and extend its sphere of influence, the official said, adding the military drills were meant for the United States and its allies.

A second source, a Taiwan-based regional security official, said the drills would probably be more limited in scope than the two earlier rounds this year given unstable winter weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.

A third source, familiar with security assessments around Taiwan, said China could use exercises in the coming weeks to test the bottom line of the Trump administration.

Two of the sources said more favorable weather conditions may prompt an earlier or delayed display of force in the days around Lai's trip.

Taiwan presidents typically take advantage of stop-overs in the United States going to and from far-flung allies to give speeches and meet with friendly politicians. Lai will be visiting the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau, three of the 12 remaining countries maintaining official diplomatic ties with Taipei.

It would not be unprecedented for China to respond militarily to this trip. It did so in August of last year when then-Vice President Lai returned from the United States, and in April of last year upon then-President Tsai Ing-wen's return from California.

Lai and his ruling Democratic Progressive Party reject Beijing's sovereignty claims, saying only Taiwan's people can decide their future.



Russia Says Last Ukrainian Troops Expelled from Kursk Region, Kyiv Denies Assertion

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a videoconference meeting with Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence near Moscow, Russia, 26 April 2025, to receive a report on the completion of a military operation to liberate Russia's Kursk region from Ukrainian forces. (EPA/Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik/Kremlin)
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a videoconference meeting with Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence near Moscow, Russia, 26 April 2025, to receive a report on the completion of a military operation to liberate Russia's Kursk region from Ukrainian forces. (EPA/Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik/Kremlin)
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Russia Says Last Ukrainian Troops Expelled from Kursk Region, Kyiv Denies Assertion

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a videoconference meeting with Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence near Moscow, Russia, 26 April 2025, to receive a report on the completion of a military operation to liberate Russia's Kursk region from Ukrainian forces. (EPA/Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik/Kremlin)
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a videoconference meeting with Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence near Moscow, Russia, 26 April 2025, to receive a report on the completion of a military operation to liberate Russia's Kursk region from Ukrainian forces. (EPA/Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik/Kremlin)

Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed on Saturday what he said was the complete failure of an offensive by Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk region after Moscow said they had been expelled from the last village they had been holding.

Russia also confirmed for the first time that North Korean soldiers have been fighting alongside Russian troops in Kursk, with the chief of the military General Staff praising their "heroism" in helping to drive out the Ukrainians.

However, Kyiv denied that its forces had been expelled from Kursk and said they were also still operating in Belgorod, another Russian region bordering Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces seized a swathe of territory in Kursk region last August in a surprise incursion that embarrassed Putin. Russian forces, later reinforced by North Korean troops, have been trying ever since to drive them out.

Putin, speaking amid intensified diplomatic efforts by the Trump administration to end the Ukraine conflict, said the expulsion of Ukrainian forces from Russian soil opened the way for further Russian successes inside Ukraine.

"The Kyiv regime's adventure has completely failed," Putin said in video footage released by the Kremlin that showed him receiving a report from the head of Russia's general staff, Valery Gerasimov.

"The full defeat of the enemy in the Kursk border region creates conditions for further successful actions by our forces on other important parts of the front," Putin added.

Gerasimov told Putin that the last occupied settlement in the Kursk region, the village of Gornal, had been "liberated from Ukrainian units" on Saturday.

"Thus, the defeat of the armed formations of the Ukrainian armed forces that had invaded the Kursk region has been completed," Gerasimov said.

The Ukrainian military, in a statement later posted on social media platform Telegram, said its forces were continuing their operations in some districts of Kursk region.

Ukraine also denied Gerasimov's assertion that all Ukrainian "sabotage groups" had been "liquidated" in Belgorod region, where Kyiv's forces launched an incursion last month.

Reuters could not independently verify the battlefield assertions of either side.

Russia's Defense Ministry said the armed forces were now helping authorities in the Kursk region to restore "peaceful life" and to remove mines planted there.

NORTH KOREANS

Gerasimov praised the North Korean officers and soldiers' contribution in Kursk, saying they had shown "high professionalism, fortitude, courage and heroism", fulfilling combat tasks "shoulder to shoulder" with Russian servicemen.

North Korea sent an estimated total of 14,000 troops, including 3,000 reinforcements to replace its losses, Ukrainian officials said. Lacking armored vehicles and drone warfare experience, they took heavy casualties but adapted quickly.

Russia had previously neither confirmed nor denied the presence of North Korean troops in Kursk.

Russia's military cooperation with North Korea has grown rapidly since Moscow became internationally isolated after invading Ukraine in February 2022.

Kyiv says North Korea has supplied Russia with vast amounts of artillery shells as well as rocket systems, thousands of troops and ballistic missiles, which Moscow began using for strikes against Ukraine at the end of 2023.

Russia and North Korea have denied weapons transfers, which would violate UN embargoes.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had hoped his forces' seizure of Russian territory would give him a bargaining chip in any future talks to end the war in his country.

Zelenskiy held what the White House described as a "very productive" meeting with US President Donald Trump on Saturday in Rome, where both leaders were attending the funeral of Pope Francis.

Trump is pressuring Zelenskiy to agree to give up some Ukrainian territory to help end the three-year war that has caused large-scale casualties and devastation in cities, towns and villages across Ukraine.