Iran, Europeans Test Diplomacy with Trump Term Looming

Iranian flag flies in front of the UN office building, housing IAEA headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021. (Reuters)
Iranian flag flies in front of the UN office building, housing IAEA headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021. (Reuters)
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Iran, Europeans Test Diplomacy with Trump Term Looming

Iranian flag flies in front of the UN office building, housing IAEA headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021. (Reuters)
Iranian flag flies in front of the UN office building, housing IAEA headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021. (Reuters)

European and Iranian officials made little progress in meetings on Friday on whether they could engage in serious talks, including over Iran's disputed nuclear program, before Donald Trump returns to the White House in January, diplomats said.

The meetings in Geneva, the first since this month's US election, come after Tehran was angered by a European-backed resolution last week that criticized Iran for poor cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.

"Another round of candid discussions with PDS (political directors) of France, Germany and United Kingdom," Iran's former ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said on X. "It was agreed to continue diplomatic dialogue in near future."

A European official said there had been nothing of note in the meeting, but that Tehran had shown an eagerness to explore how diplomacy could work in the next few weeks.

Trump, who after pulling the United States out of the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers pursued a "maximum pressure" policy that sought to wreck Iran's economy, is staffing his new administration with noted hawks on Iran.

Iran's deputy foreign minister and senior nuclear negotiator Majid Takhtravanchi met the EU's coordinator Enrique Mora on Thursday evening before holding various talks on Friday with the European diplomats, known as the E3.

While Trump's return to power leaves many questions open, four European diplomats said the E3 countries - the European parties to the 2015 accord - felt it was vital to engage now because time was running out.

The level of distrust between both sides was highlighted when the E3 on Nov. 21 pushed ahead with a resolution by the IAEA board of governors which criticized Iran.

They dismissed as insufficient and insincere a last-minute Iranian move to cap its stock of uranium that is close to weapons grade.

Tehran reacted to the resolution by informing the IAEA that it plans to install more uranium-enriching centrifuges at its enrichment plants.

In rare public comments, the head of France's foreign intelligence service Nicolas Lerner said on Friday there was a real the risk of Iranian nuclear proliferation in the coming months.

"Our services are working side by side to face what is undoubtedly one of the most, if not the most, critical threat of the coming months ... possible atomic proliferation in Iran," Lerner said, speaking in Paris alongside his British counterpart, adding the two agencies were defining their strategy.

A European official had earlier said the primary aim in Geneva was to try to agree a calendar timeline and framework to embark on good faith talks so that there was a clear commitment from Iranians to begin negotiating something concrete before Trump arrives.

It was unclear immediately if there had been any such progress.

"If we finalize a roadmap with France, Britain and Germany on how to resolve the nuclear dispute, then the ball will be in the US court to revive or kill the 2015 nuclear deal," the senior Iranian official said.

The E3 have adopted a tougher stance on Iran in recent months, notably since Tehran ramped up its military support to Russia. However, they have always insisted that they wanted to maintain a policy of pressure and dialogue.

Iranian officials say their primary objective will be finding ways to secure lifting of sanctions.

WAR FEARS

The 2015 deal lifted international sanctions against Iran in return for Tehran accepting some curbs to its nuclear program. Since Trump left the deal, Iran has accelerated its nuclear program while limiting the IAEA's ability to monitor it.

"There isn't going to be an agreement until Trump takes office or any serious talks about the contours of a deal," said Kelsey Davenport, director of non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association advocacy group.

The talks, which also discussed the Middle East situation and Iran's military cooperation with Russia, took place amid fears that an all-out war could break out between Iran and arch-rival Israel despite a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Iran's Hezbollah allies. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday he wanted to turn Israel's focus to Iran.

The European powers hope Iran will decide to begin negotiating new restrictions on its nuclear activities with a view to having a deal by the summer.

That would give enough time to implement new limits on Iran's program and lift sanctions before the accord ends in October 2025. It is not clear whether Trump would back negotiations.



Taiwan Detects 41 Chinese Military Aircraft, Ships ahead of Lai US Stopover

FILE -In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, a J-15 Chinese fighter jet prepares to take off from the Shandong aircraft carrier during the combat readiness patrol and military exercises around the Taiwan Island by the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) on Sunday, April 9, 2023. (An Ni/Xinhua via AP, File)
FILE -In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, a J-15 Chinese fighter jet prepares to take off from the Shandong aircraft carrier during the combat readiness patrol and military exercises around the Taiwan Island by the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) on Sunday, April 9, 2023. (An Ni/Xinhua via AP, File)
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Taiwan Detects 41 Chinese Military Aircraft, Ships ahead of Lai US Stopover

FILE -In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, a J-15 Chinese fighter jet prepares to take off from the Shandong aircraft carrier during the combat readiness patrol and military exercises around the Taiwan Island by the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) on Sunday, April 9, 2023. (An Ni/Xinhua via AP, File)
FILE -In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, a J-15 Chinese fighter jet prepares to take off from the Shandong aircraft carrier during the combat readiness patrol and military exercises around the Taiwan Island by the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) on Sunday, April 9, 2023. (An Ni/Xinhua via AP, File)

Taiwan said Friday it detected 41 Chinese military aircraft and ships around the island ahead of a Hawaii stopover by President Lai Ching-te, part of a Pacific tour that has sparked fury in Beijing.
Beijing insists self-ruled Taiwan is part of its territory and opposes any international recognition of the island and its claim to be a sovereign nation.
To press its claims, China deploys fighter jets, drones and warships around Taiwan on a near-daily basis, with the number of sorties increasing in recent years.
In the 24 hours to 6:00 am on Friday (2200 GMT Thursday), Taiwan's defense ministry said it had detected 33 Chinese aircraft and eight navy vessels in its airspace and waters.
That included 19 aircraft that took part in China's "joint combat readiness patrol" on Thursday evening and was the highest number in more than three weeks, according to an AFP tally of figures released daily by the ministry.
Taiwan also spotted a balloon -- the fourth since Sunday -- about 172 kilometres (107 miles) west of the island.
"It can't be ruled out that there will be a relatively large-scale military exercise in response to Lai's visit," Su Tzu-yun, a military expert at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told AFP.
'Old friends'
Lai, an outspoken defender of Taiwan's sovereignty and whom China calls a "separatist", departs Saturday on his first overseas trip since taking office in May.
He will stop briefly in Hawaii and the US territory of Guam to meet "old friends", as he visits Taiwan's three remaining allies in the Pacific.
Taiwanese government officials have previously stopped over on US soil during visits to the Pacific or Latin America, angering China, which has sometimes responded with military drills around the island.
China has reacted furiously to Lai's planned trip, with a spokesperson for the defense ministry vowing Thursday to "resolutely crush" any attempts for Taiwan independence.
Asked whether China's military would take countermeasures over Lai's Pacific tour, Wu Qian said: "We firmly oppose official interaction with China's Taiwan region in any form."
China has staged two large-scale military drills around Taiwan since Lai took office and verbally attacked him at every turn over his statements and speeches.
Lin Ying-yu, a military expert at Tamkang University, said China's response would be determined by Lai's remarks during the trip.
"China may carry out military exercises, but they may not be large ones. It will depend on what President Lai says," Lin told AFP, adding the current weather was "not very good" for drills.
'Legitimacy'
The South Pacific was once seen as a bastion of support for Taiwan's claim to statehood, but China has methodically whittled this down.
In the past five years, Solomon Islands, Kiribati and Nauru have all been persuaded to switch diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.
The Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau are now the only Pacific island nations among Taiwan's 12 remaining diplomatic allies.
Beijing's efforts to woo Taiwan's allies and expand its influence in the region have alarmed the United States, Australia and New Zealand.
Switching recognition to China "opened the door to much deeper engagement between Beijing and those countries," said Mark Harrison, a senior lecturer in Chinese studies at the University of Tasmania.
Lai's trip was a rare opportunity for the president to represent Taiwan abroad and bolster its claim to statehood.
"Even though they kind of look theatrical and performative, (these trips) actually give Taiwan a genuine voice in the international system," Harrision told AFP.
"They confer legitimacy, they confer the appearance of sovereignty and, with the international system as it is, the appearance of sovereignty is also sovereignty."