Aviation Experts: Russia's Air Defense Fire Likely Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash

Aviation experts said Thursday that Russian air defense fire was likely responsible for the Azerbaijani plane crash the day before that killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.
Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 was en route from Azerbaijan's capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons still unclear and crashed while making an attempt to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea.
The plane went down about 3 kilometers (around 2 miles) from Aktau. Cellphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before smashing into the ground and exploding in a fireball.
Other footage showed part of its fuselage ripped away from the wings and the rest of the aircraft lying upside down in the grass.
Azerbaijan mourned the crash victims with national flags at half-staff across the country on Thursday. Traffic stopped at noon, and signals sounded from ships and trains as it observed a nationwide moment of silence.
Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.
“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” The Associated Press quoted him as saying.
Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.
As the official crash investigation started, some experts alleged that holes seen in the plane’s tail section could indicate that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.
Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the provincial capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. An official in Chechnya said another drone attack on the region was fended off on Wednesday, although federal authorities didn't report it.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said that the analysis of the images of fragments of the crashed plane indicate that it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile, or SAM.
“Much more to investigate, but at high level we'd put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99% bracket,” he said.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.” Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines halted their flights during the war.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”
Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the crashed plane's tail reveal the damage compatible with shrapnel from a small surface-to-air missiles, such as the Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.
“It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he said.
Matveyev added that it remains unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land at a closer airport in Russia after the plane was hit.
“Perhaps some of the plane's systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally,” Matveyev said, adding that the crew could also have faced restrictions on landing at another venue in Russia.
Caliber, an Azerbaijani news website with good government connections, also claimed that the airliner was fired upon by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense system as it was approaching Grozny. It questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the apparent drone raid in the area. Khamzat Kadyrov, head of Chechnya's Security Council, said that air defenses downed drones attacking the region on Wednesday.
Caliber also wondered why Russian authorities didn't allow the plane to make an emergency landing in Grozny or other Russian airports nearby after it was hit.
Asked about the claims that the plane had been fired upon by air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”
Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, also warned against rushing to conclusions based on pictures of the plane’s fragments, describing the allegations of air defense fire as unfounded and unethical.
Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have similarly avoided comment on a possible cause of the crash, saying it will be up to investigators to determine it.
According to Kazakh officials, those aboard the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyzstan nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry on Thursday flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said Israel’s skies are "open and unprotected" against Iran, with "no obstacles" to launching new operations at the right time.

The statement denied any damage to Iran’s air defenses or missile production following an Israeli strike in late October.

IRGC Brig. Gen. Ali Mohammad Naeini said joint military drills with the Iranian army would continue, showcasing what he called "a new chapter in Iran’s deterrence power."

The drills include revealing underground missile bases and testing ballistic missiles.

Iran is fully prepared for "major and complex battles of any scale," Naeini said, as tensions with Israel and regional developments grow.

Speaking at a press conference, he referred to recent changes in Syria and the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. He accused Iran's enemies of using "cognitive warfare" to falsely portray the country as weakened.

Naeini pointed to Iran’s strikes on Israel in April and October, calling them "just a small part of our limitless power."

"The skies over occupied territories remain open and unprotected for us. We can act with more precision, speed, and destructive force," he added.

He accused Israel of spreading false narratives to weaken Iran’s morale but vowed to "correct the enemy’s distorted perception."

"We are always ready, and when the orders come, we will show our strength again," he warned.

Naeini described the military drills as a display of "strength and deterrence" and said their message "will reach the enemy in the coming days."

Iran’s army and the IRGC have begun three months of annual military drills across land, sea, and air, aimed at addressing new security threats and simulating real battles. The exercises, both defensive and offensive, aim to boost military readiness, counter terrorism and sabotage, and strengthen national morale.

Naeini dismissed Israeli claims that Iran’s defenses were weakened after the October 26 attack, saying missile production remains unaffected and defense systems are fully operational.

On warnings of a possible third Iranian strike on Israel, Naeini said: "There is no obstacle to new operations when the time is right." He promised future actions would be "more powerful and surprising."

He accused Israel of suffering heavy losses, claiming 1,000 Israeli soldiers have died since the start of the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation in Gaza. Supporting resistance movements remains central to Iran’s military doctrine, he said.

Naeini emphasized that Iran does not seek war, but the drills are meant to strengthen deterrence and defense.

Iranian media reported that air defense units conducted exercises near sensitive sites, including the Natanz nuclear facility. Special forces were also deployed in western Iran to address security threats.

In early October, Iran launched 200 missiles towards Israel, with Tel Aviv reporting that most were intercepted by its air defenses or those of its allies.

Tehran said the attack was in retaliation for Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and an IRGC commander in a strike on southern Beirut in September, along with the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in July.

On October 26, Israeli warplanes targeted military sites in Iran, including missile facilities and radar systems, destroying them.

Aviation Experts: Russia's Air Defense Fire Likely Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash