With no majority in parliament and surrounded by allies outraged by his acceptance of a US-brokered Gaza ceasefire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have set his sights on Israel's next elections.
A political phoenix, Netanyahu is the country's longest-serving prime minister, has been its dominant political figure for decades and heads one of the most right-wing coalitions in Israel's history.
But he does not hold an absolute parliamentary majority after an ultra-Orthodox party quit in July, protesting against the government's failure to pass a law to exempt its community from military service, said AFP.
The summer parliamentary recess came at just the right time to shield the government, which now holds just 60 of 120 seats, from motions of no confidence.
But the resumption of the Knesset's work on October 20 heralded the return of transactional politics and potential threats for the government.
Under pressure from US President Donald Trump, Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire with Hamas that came into effect on October 10 after more than two years of war in Gaza.
His far-right allies vehemently denounced the agreement, arguing that the military should retain control of the entire Gaza Strip and crush the Palestinian movement for good.
And while they are not abandoning the ship of government, they are raising the price to keep them on board.
June 2026 election?
"The coalition has been weakened by the ceasefire agreement," said independent analyst Michael Horowitz.
"For Netanyahu, the issue is no longer so much about preserving his coalition until the end as it is about positioning himself to win the next elections -- even if they are brought forward," he told AFP.
In a televised interview on October 18, Netanyahu said that he would run for office in the next elections and that he expected to win.
Those polls are required to take place by late October 2026 but Netanyahu, who has just turned 76, may call early elections or be forced into a fresh vote if another of his allied parties abandons the ruling coalition.
Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has already threatened to stop voting with the coalition if his bill calling for "the death penalty for terrorists" is not put to a parliamentary vote by November 9.
Netanyahu must grapple with ideological differences from his far-right partners, who favor resuming the war in Gaza with a view to taking over the territory, from which Israel unilaterally withdrew in 2005.
He must also contend with pressure from his allies in the ultra-Orthodox Sephardic Shas party -- which has 11 lawmakers and has distanced itself from the government.
Without formally leaving the coalition, Shas ministers resigned from the cabinet in July over the issue of military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews.
The coalition's other ultra-Orthodox party, United Torah Judaism, quit both the government and the coalition.
Several Israeli journalists including the high-profile Amit Segal, who is known to be close to Netanyahu, have suggested the premier would opt for June 2026 for early elections.
For now, Netanyahu must overcome several obstacles to remain in power, most notably the issue of conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Shas says it will pull its support unless military service exemption is enshrined in law, while the far-right and many in Netanyahu's Likud party want to force ultra-Orthodox conscription.
Likud in front
If the fragile ceasefire holds, Netanyahu will also have to find post-war solutions for Gaza that will satisfy his far-right partners.
They are demanding a vote on at least partial annexation of the occupied West Bank in return for what they see as the relinquishing of Gaza.
The Trump administration has repeatedly expressed its opposition to such a move.
Israeli financial newspaper Calcalist said that in a bid to shore up its unity, the coalition planned to swiftly pass laws that would give it a better chance of election victory.
Among them would be the lowering of the threshold of votes needed to be represented in parliament -- an apparent gift to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, whose far-right Religious Zionism party would not reach the required limit under current rules, according to several polls.
Another measure would be to lower the voting age to 17, which would give a demographic advantage to the ultra-Orthodox parties.
Netanyahu, who is on trial in several corruption cases, is assured of being re-elected as head of Likud at the end of November, as there are no other candidates.
And despite strong popular discontent with the government, his party remains the frontrunner according to all polls.
