Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s bid to return to power has stalled abruptly after the US delivered blunt warnings against the formation of a government seen as entrenching Iranian influence, raising the prospect that his nomination could collapse altogether.
According to sources, Washington objected to the current trajectory of government formation, arguing it reflects an Iranian rejection of a potential deal aimed at averting an imminent confrontation, and signaling that a Maliki-led government would face isolation.
Asharq Al-Awsat obtained the text of a US letter presented at a meeting of the Shiite Coordination Framework late on Monday, in which Washington rejected the mechanisms used to nominate the prime minister-designate and other senior posts, just two days after Maliki was put forward as the candidate of the largest parliamentary bloc.
The letter came two days after Maliki was named as the candidate of the largest parliamentary bloc for the premiership.
A source said a senior Coordination Framework leader received a surprise call from US officials early on Monday, during which Washington objected to the continued Iranian dominance over the government formation process.
A senior figure in Maliki’s State of Law coalition acknowledged that the US letter had shaken his candidacy and made a third term extremely difficult.
Questions had already been raised over whether the Coordination Framework, the country’s largest Shiite alliance, had received US signals opposing Maliki before his nomination was announced on Saturday, or whether Washington’s position hardened only after reports emerged of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s blessing for Maliki’s bid.
Details
In the early hours of January 26, a Shiite leader received a US call informing him that Washington views the Coordination Framework’s push to form an Iran-backed government as disregarding local and regional concerns and deepening suspicions of sustained Iranian influence in Iraq, exposing the country to risks and sanctions.
The letter said that Washington “will consider it a government under malign control, and reserves the right not to engage with it.”
Caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani also received a call from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, warning that a government dominated by Iran would be unable to put Iraq’s interests first or shield the country from regional conflicts.
Sudani, who had mobilized his political and governmental influence in pursuit of a second term, ultimately stepped aside in favor of Maliki and publicly described him as “the strongest man.” However, the terms of that arrangement remain unclear.
US diplomatic activity intensified on Monday evening when US envoy Tom Barrack told Kurdistan Democratic Party leader Masoud Barzani that “a government installed by Iran will not succeed, whether for the aspirations of Iraqis or Syrians, or for an effective partnership with the United States.”
Barrack’s reference to Iraqis and Syrians echoed Maliki’s past positions on political change in Damascus, where he was a strong ally of President Bashar al-Assad.
Following Barzani’s call with Barrack, Iraqi political forces announced the postponement of a Tuesday parliamentary session to elect a president. The delay is widely believed to reflect opposition to Maliki, disrupting a deal that would have seen a Barzani-backed candidate elected president.
Kurdish sources said the postponement came at Kurdish request after Barrack warned Barzani that pushing through a presidential election as part of a deal leading to Maliki’s appointment would antagonize Washington.
They added that Barzani had “taken a step back” after reportedly agreeing with Maliki on government formation two months ago.
A stormy meeting
On the evening of January 26, the Coordination Framework convened at the headquarters of the Islamic Virtue Party, where a Shiite leader conveyed the contents of the US letter regarding the future government.
The meeting exposed a rift between factions calling for caution and a review of Maliki’s nomination, and others insisting on pressing ahead and ignoring external objections. Tensions escalated to the point of shouting, and the dispute reportedly turned physical.
One participant was quoted as saying loudly, “We will not listen to the objections of any external party. This phase requires a strong Maliki.”
“What we remember about Maliki”
According to the letter read out at the meeting, the US administration supports Iraqi leaders’ commitment to steering the country away from conflict.
While the selection of the prime minister-designate and other senior posts is a sovereign Iraqi decision, Washington said it would make its own sovereign choices regarding engagement with the next government in line with US interests.
The letter said the United States focuses on interests rather than individuals, but that a viable partnership requires an Iraqi government that weakens Iran-backed terrorism, dismantles militias, places dangerous weapons under state control, and ensures that US-designated terrorist groups are excluded, particularly those that defy Iraqi disarmament decisions.
Such a government, the letter said, would allow Washington to work constructively for the benefit of both Iraqis and Americans.
It also urged Iraq to form an inclusive government representing all components of society, to maintain its current openness to regional partners, and to avoid a return to periods marked by sectarian polarization, regional tension, and isolation.
The letter warned that Maliki’s nomination risks reviving memories of his previous governments, which are viewed negatively in Washington and the region, at a time when Iraq is seeking a new era of stability, prosperity, and security through a mutually beneficial partnership with the United States.
The contents of the letter could not be independently verified with US sources. However, a Coordination Framework leader described it as “a new and decisive position by the US administration.”
A State of Law figure said Maliki’s nomination “may no longer work,” adding: “Yesterday, the ceiling fell on the third term.”
Earlier, State of Law spokesman Aqeel al-Fatlawi had said the United States was satisfied with Maliki’s nomination because he was “capable of controlling the factions,” according to local television.
Figures close to Maliki denied that his chances of being appointed had collapsed.
How did Maliki pass?
Sources said a Coordination Framework meeting on Saturday, which ended with Maliki’s nomination, included letters from European and Arab states expressing reservations about resorting to contentious options unlikely to promote regional stability.
When calls were made during the meeting to reconsider regional objections, one senior figure responded: “Since when do you like to listen to regional and international opinion?”
Before the nomination meeting, two second-tier Framework leaders traveled to Tehran, joined by a senior figure based there, and met Iranian officials to confirm whether Khamenei truly backed Maliki. They were told: “We bless your agreement. Go ahead and accelerate it. There is no time.”
Diplomatic sources believe Washington did not initially oppose Maliki’s name, but reacted after Iran’s direct involvement in the government formation process became public.
A Western diplomat told Asharq Al-Awsat that publicizing Khamenei’s blessing for Maliki angered US officials, prompting intensified pressure in recent hours to halt the process.
The diplomat said Maliki’s nomination ran counter to President Donald Trump’s desire to see Iran sign an agreement on US terms. While Washington had no issue with specific candidates, it viewed the formation of an Iran-aligned Iraqi government at a sensitive regional moment as highly problematic.
The diplomat said the US moves aim to prevent the emergence of an Iraqi government politically loyal to Tehran, force Shiite factions toward a less provocative compromise, and send Iran a clear message: do not expand your influence while negotiations are underway.
