Life has started to partially return to normal in Israel as the number of missiles fired from Iran has dropped sharply and been partly replaced by attacks from Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which Israeli officials say have had a more limited impact.
Despite continuing military operations against Iran and Lebanon, Israel has decided to partially reopen Ben Gurion International Airport and resume some economic activities.
Officials said that if the current lower level of missile attacks continues, the country will shift from the strict emergency policy known as the “Red Status” under which most economic activity is halted except for essential services and all educational activities are suspended to a more relaxed “Orange Status.” The change is expected to take effect starting Sunday.
Figures show that the number of Iranian missile barrages has steadily decreased. On the first day of the war there were 25 waves of attacks, rising to 62 on the second day, then falling to 24 on the third day, seven on the fourth, and ten on the fifth.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah began launching its own attacks from Lebanon on Monday. It carried out 10 missile and drone strikes on the third day of the conflict, 14 on the fourth day, and 39 on the fifth.
Air superiority
The Israeli military has intensified airstrikes on Lebanon and has urged residents of the southern suburbs of Beirut to evacuate, hoping to weaken Hezbollah’s military capabilities. At the same time, Israeli forces have expanded joint military operations with the United States against Iran.
Israeli generals say they have achieved significant air superiority over western Iran and above Tehran, and they expect to gain full control of Iranian airspace soon. Under such conditions, US aircraft would be able to operate more effectively over eastern Iran.
Officials added that Israel’s targeted assassinations of senior figures have not stopped and will continue. They also said US forces expect to eliminate Iran’s naval capabilities within two days.
Israeli officials acknowledged that these achievements would not have been possible without close cooperation with the United States.
Military estimates attribute the gradual decline in Iranian missile launches in recent days to the results of heavy airstrikes: more than 2,000 conducted by the US Air Force and more than 1,500 by Israel. According to these estimates, the strikes have killed 48 senior figures and caused 926 deaths and 6,186 injuries in Iran.
In Lebanon, the toll is reported as 72 dead and 347 wounded. Around 60,000 residents of southern Lebanon have also been displaced from their homes.
Military deception
However, some Israeli assessments urge caution, warning that Iran may have deliberately reduced the intensity of its attacks as part of a military deception aimed at preparing a longer war of attrition against Israel and US forces.
According to these assessments, both Iran and Hezbollah possess large stockpiles of weapons, making it unlikely they would leave them unused.
Israeli language media reports that the Israeli military is also monitoring the possibility that the conflict could expand to additional fronts, including Yemen and the Red Sea. The Houthi militia is believed to possess missile capabilities that could be used in the war. The reasons for its limited involvement so far remain unclear, but Israeli forces are preparing for the possibility that this could change.
According to Ron Ben-Yishai, a strategic analyst at the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, the fifth day of the war saw a notable development: coordinated attacks launched simultaneously from Iran and Lebanon in an apparent attempt to overwhelm Israel’s air defense systems.
Analysts said the synchronized attacks indicate Iran’s determination to continue the conflict and suggest a clearer involvement by Hezbollah. While the group initially appeared cautious about entering the war fully, the latest attacks from Lebanon point to a growing role in the military response.
Strategic challenges
Israeli assessments also suggest that both Iran and Hezbollah are facing increasing strategic challenges. Continued Israeli strikes and mounting pressure on Iran, Hezbollah’s main supporter, raise questions about the group’s political and military future and whether it will continue operating as part of what Israel calls the “Iranian axis” or adjust its strategy to preserve its position in Lebanon.
Some analysts believe the prolonged conflict could alter the balance of power inside Lebanon. At the same time, Israeli and US expectations that intense strikes against Iranian leadership figures and security institutions might trigger widespread internal unrest have not yet materialized. So far, there have been no major public protests or significant defections within Iran’s security forces.
