Race for 2028 Heats Up after US Midterms Firestorm

The 2028 US presidential election is set to be the first since 2012 without Donald Trump on the ballot. Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP
The 2028 US presidential election is set to be the first since 2012 without Donald Trump on the ballot. Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP
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Race for 2028 Heats Up after US Midterms Firestorm

The 2028 US presidential election is set to be the first since 2012 without Donald Trump on the ballot. Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP
The 2028 US presidential election is set to be the first since 2012 without Donald Trump on the ballot. Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP

President Donald Trump's stunning midterms defeat by the Democrats has upended another US election -- the race to replace him in the White House in 2028.

The crushing defeat for the Republicans is particularly stinging for Vice President JD Vance, who had been the frontrunner but now risks being seen as tied to his lame-duck boss.

But the midterms are a potential launchpad for rising Democratic stars like Georgia senator Jon Ossoff, whose youthful vibe has already drawn comparisons to former president Barack Obama.

- Republicans in turmoil -

The MAGA coalition that shot Trump to power in 2016 and 2024 effectively collapsed in Tuesday's midterms, leaving any presumptive Republican heir with a mountain to climb.

Long seen as the odds-on favorite for the Republican nomination in 2028, Vance is the most obvious victim after hitching his wagon to Trump throughout the midterms campaigns with rallies in swing states.

The ambitious 42-year-old quickly tried to distance himself from the electoral disaster, blaming it on Trump's unpopular war on Iran in a long thesis posted on X on Wednesday.

But voters are likely to reject his attempts to disown Trump.

It's a familiar problem for US vice presidents. Former Democratic candidate and vice president Kamala Harris suffered from a similar problem in 2024 when she said that "there's not a thing that comes to mind" when asked how she'd differentiate herself from Joe Biden.

"The bad news for Vance is that sitting vice presidents seldom win the presidency," James Lindsay of the Council for Foreign Relations, said.

Trump's Secretary of State Marco Rubio's name has also been bandied about.

Rubio, 55, has kept a far lower profile during the midterms but any top official in Trump's administration will struggle to wash their hands of the Iran war.

The Republicans' midterm disaster could, however, be a boost for other possible candidates.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 48, who ran against Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024, has suddenly become very vocal.

He described the Democratic sweep as "the political equivalent of a meteor strike" -- and pointed out that it was only in his own state that Republicans held them off.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 55, has also left the door open, having run against Trump in 2016 -- although his chances may have been harmed by the Democrats' stunning senate and governor wins in the midterms in his state.

- Democrats on a high -

The Democratic field is crowded but the midterms have given some likely candidates a boost.

Ossoff's reelection as Georgia Senator has fueled speculation about a 2028 run by a telegenic politician who has already gained attention for mocking Trump's relationship with a young staffer.

The 39-year-old has said that he has "zero interest in running for president" but his swiftly-declared win in Georgia -- and his victory speech -- have bolstered his status in the party.

Before the midterms Kamala Harris, 62, had been the favorite for the nomination, but there are many in the party who would prefer to have someone without a losing track record.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, 53, who was interviewed by Harris to be her running mate in 2024, had a good night on Tuesday as he stormed back to reelection in the key battleground state.

Outgoing California Governor Gavin Newsom, 59, is another big name who has repeatedly taken on Trump. He predicted in an interview with AFP in September Trump's presidency "as we know it would be over after the midterms.

But Newsom, like Harris, may be seen as more of an old guard figure in a party that is looking to its rising stars.

A prominent but potentially divisive choice would be left-wing New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who said in September that she was weighing a run, musing about whether a Latina could win in a country that rejected female nominees in 2016 and 2024.

Other possible contenders include former Chicago mayor Rahm Emmanuel, JB Pritzker, the billionaire Illinois governor who set out a lengthy national agenda after winning a third term on Tuesday, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and Arizona senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly.



Race for 2028 Heats Up after US Midterms Firestorm

The 2028 US presidential election is set to be the first since 2012 without Donald Trump on the ballot. Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP
The 2028 US presidential election is set to be the first since 2012 without Donald Trump on the ballot. Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP
TT

Race for 2028 Heats Up after US Midterms Firestorm

The 2028 US presidential election is set to be the first since 2012 without Donald Trump on the ballot. Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP
The 2028 US presidential election is set to be the first since 2012 without Donald Trump on the ballot. Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP

President Donald Trump's stunning midterms defeat by the Democrats has upended another US election -- the race to replace him in the White House in 2028.

The crushing defeat for the Republicans is particularly stinging for Vice President JD Vance, who had been the frontrunner but now risks being seen as tied to his lame-duck boss.

But the midterms are a potential launchpad for rising Democratic stars like Georgia senator Jon Ossoff, whose youthful vibe has already drawn comparisons to former president Barack Obama.

- Republicans in turmoil -

The MAGA coalition that shot Trump to power in 2016 and 2024 effectively collapsed in Tuesday's midterms, leaving any presumptive Republican heir with a mountain to climb.

Long seen as the odds-on favorite for the Republican nomination in 2028, Vance is the most obvious victim after hitching his wagon to Trump throughout the midterms campaigns with rallies in swing states.

The ambitious 42-year-old quickly tried to distance himself from the electoral disaster, blaming it on Trump's unpopular war on Iran in a long thesis posted on X on Wednesday.

But voters are likely to reject his attempts to disown Trump.

It's a familiar problem for US vice presidents. Former Democratic candidate and vice president Kamala Harris suffered from a similar problem in 2024 when she said that "there's not a thing that comes to mind" when asked how she'd differentiate herself from Joe Biden.

"The bad news for Vance is that sitting vice presidents seldom win the presidency," James Lindsay of the Council for Foreign Relations, said.

Trump's Secretary of State Marco Rubio's name has also been bandied about.

Rubio, 55, has kept a far lower profile during the midterms but any top official in Trump's administration will struggle to wash their hands of the Iran war.

The Republicans' midterm disaster could, however, be a boost for other possible candidates.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 48, who ran against Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024, has suddenly become very vocal.

He described the Democratic sweep as "the political equivalent of a meteor strike" -- and pointed out that it was only in his own state that Republicans held them off.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 55, has also left the door open, having run against Trump in 2016 -- although his chances may have been harmed by the Democrats' stunning senate and governor wins in the midterms in his state.

- Democrats on a high -

The Democratic field is crowded but the midterms have given some likely candidates a boost.

Ossoff's reelection as Georgia Senator has fueled speculation about a 2028 run by a telegenic politician who has already gained attention for mocking Trump's relationship with a young staffer.

The 39-year-old has said that he has "zero interest in running for president" but his swiftly-declared win in Georgia -- and his victory speech -- have bolstered his status in the party.

Before the midterms Kamala Harris, 62, had been the favorite for the nomination, but there are many in the party who would prefer to have someone without a losing track record.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, 53, who was interviewed by Harris to be her running mate in 2024, had a good night on Tuesday as he stormed back to reelection in the key battleground state.

Outgoing California Governor Gavin Newsom, 59, is another big name who has repeatedly taken on Trump. He predicted in an interview with AFP in September Trump's presidency "as we know it would be over after the midterms.

But Newsom, like Harris, may be seen as more of an old guard figure in a party that is looking to its rising stars.

A prominent but potentially divisive choice would be left-wing New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who said in September that she was weighing a run, musing about whether a Latina could win in a country that rejected female nominees in 2016 and 2024.

Other possible contenders include former Chicago mayor Rahm Emmanuel, JB Pritzker, the billionaire Illinois governor who set out a lengthy national agenda after winning a third term on Tuesday, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and Arizona senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly.


Democratic Congress Could Test Decades of US Support for Israel

Michigan voters cast their ballots, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in White Lake, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Michigan voters cast their ballots, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in White Lake, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
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Democratic Congress Could Test Decades of US Support for Israel

Michigan voters cast their ballots, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in White Lake, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Michigan voters cast their ballots, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in White Lake, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Democrats’ takeover of Congress and growing Republican unease over Israel could trigger the biggest reassessment of US support for its closest Middle East ally in decades, after an election shaped in part by anger over the Iran war.

Democrats won both the Senate and House in Tuesday’s midterms. Many winning candidates were progressives who campaigned against military aid to Israel and the US-Israeli war on Iran, Reuters said.

Israel’s campaign in Gaza and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s embrace of President Donald Trump and other Republicans had already strained decades of bipartisan support for Israel.

Democratic control could bring greater scrutiny of military aid and West Bank violence, along with hearings and challenges to Trump nominees, although the president’s veto limits the party’s ability to force major policy changes.

One successful progressive was Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan, the first Muslim elected to the US Senate despite Republican attempts to win over Jewish voters who might have been uncomfortable with his faith and his criticism of Israel.

There were also signs that Republicans might reexamine their party's traditional ‌support for Israel.

Vice ‌President JD Vance on Wednesday blamed the election rout on the war against Iran and identified ‌Israel ⁠as an issue for ⁠Republicans. He said in a social media post that one pollster identified four actions that would bring disgruntled Trump voters back: "1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel."

Trump announced in a Fox News interview on Tuesday that he had made a deal with Netanyahu that Washington would end annual security assistance to Israel.

However, it was not immediately clear that he had the legal authority to stop the billions of dollars in military assistance Washington sends Israel each year.

Policy toward Israel has emerged as a generational divide in US politics. Opinion polls show younger voters, including some Republicans, feel the country has been too supportive of Israel and insufficiently supportive of residents ⁠of the Palestinian territories.

SENTIMENT SHIFTING

Congressional sentiment had already been shifting. In September, 46 of the 47 members ‌of the Senate Democratic caucus voted for a resolution to force Trump's administration to ‌report to Congress on increasing violence against Palestinians by Israeli settlers in the West Bank.

Republicans blocked the measure, but the near-unanimous Democratic vote was a sharp ‌departure from decades of reliable bipartisan backing for Israel.

Democrats will likely focus again on West Bank violence.

"We need to make sure ‌that we apply our laws and international law and our policies uniformly across the board when it comes to the actions of countries. There should not be an Israel exception," said Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, who has led attempts to put human rights conditions on Israel aid.

Democrats’ power remains limited, however. Trump promised to be “Mr. Veto,” and they are unlikely to muster the two-thirds majorities needed to override his vetoes if the president refuses to sign ‌their bills.

Still, there might be enough resistance to sending US tax dollars abroad, and anger over the Iran war, for the "America First" wing of the Republican Party to also push back.

The election ⁠result could see "weird bedfellows of ⁠left and right come together in condemnation of Israel," said Price Floyd, a former US official and senior adviser with Argyll Strategy, a London-based strategic communications firm.

MAKING NOISE

Majorities also mean Democrats can summon administration officials to public hearings, a rarity under Trump's Republicans.

"What Congress can do is they can make ... a lot of noise. They can threaten to hold up nominees. They can create lots of questions about various assistance deals and force the president to do waivers (if he lifts sanctions)," said William Wechsler, senior director of Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council.

Opinion polls showed the Iran war was a top election issue. Many Americans blamed higher prices – especially for gasoline – on the conflict Trump began in February.

Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, which advocates for a strong US-Israel alliance, said Israel's changing leadership could change the "mood music" of dealings between the two countries.

Netanyahu lost his governing majority in an October 27 Israeli election, but denied opponents a clear path to unseat him. Negotiations to form a new government are expected to be protracted.

A new Israeli government, particularly one less closely tied to Republicans, could engage in a more cooperative way with Democrats, Schanzer said.

"Nothing is going to change in the United States until January when Congress takes their seats and by then, there may be a new Israeli government that would also have an impact on this," Schanzer said.


Arab Parties Extend a Hand to Try and Topple Netanyahu, but Challenges Remain

Israeli Prime Minister and Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu gestures after exit polls, at his party headquarters during Israel's national election, in Jerusalem, October 28, 2026. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
Israeli Prime Minister and Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu gestures after exit polls, at his party headquarters during Israel's national election, in Jerusalem, October 28, 2026. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
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Arab Parties Extend a Hand to Try and Topple Netanyahu, but Challenges Remain

Israeli Prime Minister and Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu gestures after exit polls, at his party headquarters during Israel's national election, in Jerusalem, October 28, 2026. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
Israeli Prime Minister and Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu gestures after exit polls, at his party headquarters during Israel's national election, in Jerusalem, October 28, 2026. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

A veteran Arab lawmaker in Israel says his bloc is willing to break with decades of precedent and join forces with Jewish-led parties in a shared bid to end Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 's long rule.

“We want to do things that we did not do in the past in order to remove this criminal government,” Ahmad Tibi, a senior member of the Arab Joint List, told The Associated Press.

But any such partnership could be politically fraught for both sides. For the Joint List, it would mean backing a government unlikely to end Israel’s wars or curb settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank. For Netanyahu’s opponents, it would mean aligning with parties that not only criticize Israeli policies, but reject its identity as a Jewish state.

After historic voter turnout delivered Arab-led parties a record share in Israel's parliament, Tibi said the Joint List is willing to support an anti-Netanyahu government without joining it. That could reassure Jewish-led factions that view them with suspicion and satisfy their own constituents. It would still give the Joint List major influence.

Only one Arab party has ever served in an Israeli government, in 2021. But that party, Ra’am, is much more conciliatory than the Joint List and held fewer seats. Ra’am is willing to join another anti-Netanyahu government as a partner, but any such arrangement would still need the support of the Joint List.

If the Jewish-led parties reject such a partnership, then it would prove Israel is “an ethnocracy, not an absolute democracy for all citizens,” Tibi said.

The Joint List's positions put it at odds with most Israelis. Most of the Palestinian population in what is now Israel fled or were expelled during the 1948 war surrounding its creation. Those who remained were granted citizenship, including the right to vote, and today they and their descendants make up some 20% of the population.

Many Jewish Israelis have historically viewed Arab-led political parties with suspicion. That distrust has been reinforced by lawmakers who have defended or praised Israel's enemies.

The Joint List, a coalition of three left-wing and nationalist parties, rejects what it refers to as the “racist Zionist consensus” in Israel. It calls for partnering with Jewish Israelis who support a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem, territories occupied in the 1967 Mideast war. It rejects Israel’s identity as a Jewish state, calling for equal rights for all its citizens.

Many Jewish Israelis see that as support for the country’s enemies at a time of war. Netanyahu has encouraged such sentiments, lodging unproven accusations of electoral fraud against the Arab-led parties and portraying them as a threat to national security.

A dilemma for Netanyahu's opponents That creates a dilemma for Netanyahu’s main opponents, led by former general Gadi Eisenkot.

In the campaign, they portrayed Netanyahu as a corrupt leader who failed to prevent the Oct. 7, 2023, attack and then blocked a public inquiry into it. They cast the election in existential terms, saying Netanyahu’s far-right government threatened Israel’s democratic institutions.

They won 48 seats in the 120-member Knesset, compared to 53 for Netanyahu’s coalition. The Joint List won 11 seats and Ra’am won 8, making them crucial to forming an anti-Netanyahu majority.

The Joint List could help an anti-Netanyahu bloc take power by voting for it or by abstaining to lower the threshold needed for a majority. Either arrangement could allow opposition parties to form a government without requiring the Joint List to become part of their administration. Joining could put its lawmakers in the uncomfortable position of being part of a government waging wars in Gaza and Lebanon that they oppose.

Some of Eisenkot’s allies welcome Arab support while others are opposed, pointing to past statements by Joint List leaders they argue deny Israel’s legitimacy or support its enemies.

Tibi said he was under no illusions that a partnership with Netanyahu’s opponents would end the wars or bring about a Palestinian state. But he said a “repair government” would improve the lives of Palestinian citizens, by ending Netanyahu’s rule and also potentially addressing local issues like a wave of violent crime in Arab communities.

It's unclear what conditions would be required Eisenkot has said Arab-led parties must meet certain conditions in any partnership, including calling Hamas a terrorist group that needs to be destroyed.

Tibi said the conditions do not apply to parties like the Joint List that want to provide outside support.

The Joint List and Ra’am have denounced Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack and any violence against civilians. But they have refused to brand Hamas a terrorist group or call for its destruction, saying that doing so would justify Israel’s devastating military campaign in Gaza.

Tibi said both the Oct. 7 attack and Israel’s response to it were immoral.

The veteran lawmaker has long been a lightning rod for right-wing attacks on Arab parties. During Israel’s 2019 elections, Netanyahu, popularly known as Bibi, campaigned on the slogan “Bibi or Tibi?” to warn voters that opposing him meant relying on Arab-led parties to form a government.

Tibi said Tuesday that the election result had turned the slogan on its head.

“When he said ‘Bibi or Tibi,’ he incited against Arabs,” he said. “Now, it’s ‘Tibi,’ because Arab voters went in a very massive way to take part in the elections. It’s definitely our story this time.”