Cairo Holds Addis Ababa Responsible for Failure of GERD Talks

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry participated on Sunday in the joint consultative meeting with GCC foreign ministers in Riyadh (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry participated on Sunday in the joint consultative meeting with GCC foreign ministers in Riyadh (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
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Cairo Holds Addis Ababa Responsible for Failure of GERD Talks

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry participated on Sunday in the joint consultative meeting with GCC foreign ministers in Riyadh (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry participated on Sunday in the joint consultative meeting with GCC foreign ministers in Riyadh (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)

The dispute over Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) returned Sunday to the frontline after Cairo held Addis Ababa responsible for the failure of the latest round of talks to reach an agreement on the operation of the dam.

Cairo’s position was backed by Gulf countries, which refused any action that infringes upon the rights of Egypt and Sudan in the Nile waters.

An Egyptian Foreign Ministry statement said Minister Sameh Shoukry briefed on Sunday his counterparts in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries on developments regarding GERD.

This came during Shoukry’s participation in the joint consultative meeting with GCC foreign ministers in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

Foreign Ministry Official Spokesperson Ahmed Abu Zeid said Shoukry spoke with GCC countries on Ethiopia’s s uncompromising approach that disregards principles of good neighborliness, leading Egypt to suspend its participation in the negotiations.

Last December, Egypt announced the failure of a round of negotiations on GERD. The talks - held between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia - were previously launched within the framework of the three countries’ agreement to accelerate the completion of the agreement on the rules for filling and operating the dam within four months.

At the time, Egypt’s Ministry of Irrigation said in a statement that the meeting held in Addis Ababa “did not yield any results due to Ethiopia's persistent refusal to accept any of the technical or legal compromise solutions that would safeguard the interests of all three countries.”

GERD has been under construction since 2011 on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile water.

During Sunday’s meeting in Riyadh, Secretary-General of the GCC Jassim Al-Bedaiwi affirmed that the water security of Egypt and Sudan is an integral part of Arab national security, expressing the Gulf countries' rejection of any action that infringes upon the rights of both countries in the Nile waters.

Dr. Amani El Taweel, director of the African Program at the Center for Al-Ahram Political and Strategic Studies, says the GCC support for Egypt will have a significant impact on the GERD negotiations.

She told Asharq Al-Awsat that the GCC rejection of any action that infringes upon the rights of Egypt in the Nile waters is a political message with implications on the Ethiopian administration.

She noted that Gulf countries have a political influence on Addis Ababa where they have large investments.



Iraq Frustrated by Iran’s Reluctance to Rein in Militias

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
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Iraq Frustrated by Iran’s Reluctance to Rein in Militias

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)

A senior government official said Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has warned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the “risks to Iraq” from the growing conflict between Israel and Iran.

The official added that Iran is using “deception” when asked to distance its allied militias from the war.

Political and government figures are increasingly worried that Iraq could be hit, after two Israeli soldiers were killed in a drone strike on the Golan Heights early Friday.

Speaking anonymously to Asharq Al-Awsat, the official said al-Sudani is taking steps to keep Iraq out of the conflict.

These efforts include ramping up “political mediation” to persuade militias not to involve Iraq. The prime minister “informed Coordination Framework leaders of the risks” and urged them to “act quickly.”

The official also warned that an attack is still possible, saying intelligence shows the Iraqi militias launched the strike from outside Iraq, using weapons that came from Iraqi territory.

Al-Sudani’s Mediation Efforts

The Iraqi premier has chosen mediators, approved by Iran, to negotiate with militias about the conflict and conditions for de-escalation. These three individuals have previously acted as mediators in past crises.

Last week, Asharq Al-Awsat reported that al-Sudani asked three key Shiite figures to intervene and prevent militias from getting involved in the war between Hezbollah and Israel, after reports surfaced that Israel had identified 35 Iraqi targets.

Sources confirmed that Ammar al-Hakim is among the mediators, along with two other influential Shiite leaders whose names haven’t been disclosed.

However, two Iraqi militias—likely the al-Nujaba Movement led by Akram al-Kaabi and Kataib Hezbollah led by Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi—have refused to cooperate and continue launching rocket attacks on Israel.

The Iraqi official admitted that some militias are “stubborn,” but stressed that al-Sudani knows Iraq is “at the center of the storm.”

He reportedly told leaders of the Coordination Framework, “Iraq cannot avoid a military strike if it happens, so we must stay out of the war to protect the country.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a Friday sermon, stated that “Iran’s allies in the region won’t back down,” increasing concerns that Iraqi militias tied to Iran will continue attacking Israel.

Iraqi sources also reported that the Coordination Framework has reviewed an “intelligence report” on dozens of Iraqi targets that Israel might strike or assassinate.

Government Efforts to Prevent Escalation

Al-Sudani has blocked the flow of Iraqi funds into conflict zones, unlike previous leaders, according to the official.

He has worked closely with the US and its Treasury Department to strictly monitor financial movements, often insisting that Iran uses official channels to claim its dues from Iraq.

The official also said global auditing firms are now helping Iraq’s central bank oversee financial transactions, shutting down all previous routes for illicit money flows.

Since the Gaza war began on October 7, 2023, the US told Iraq it pressured Israel not to strike Iraq, as long as Iraq stays out of the conflict, the official added.

The US doesn’t oppose Iraq’s stance of condemning Israel, supporting Lebanon and Palestine, and sending aid.

But it “won’t accept any financial or military support to militias.”

Regarding Iran’s role, the official said Tehran claims militias act independently, dodging responsibility for reining them in.