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Lebanon’s Southern Front Open to All Possibilities…Eye on Gaza Ceasefire

US Senior Advisor for Energy Security Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Beirut, Lebanon June 14, 2022. (REUTERS)
US Senior Advisor for Energy Security Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Beirut, Lebanon June 14, 2022. (REUTERS)
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Lebanon’s Southern Front Open to All Possibilities…Eye on Gaza Ceasefire

US Senior Advisor for Energy Security Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Beirut, Lebanon June 14, 2022. (REUTERS)
US Senior Advisor for Energy Security Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Beirut, Lebanon June 14, 2022. (REUTERS)

Six months since the start of military confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon, the front remains open to all possibilities with escalating military operations and threats on both sides.
Meanwhile, the attention is turning to the outcome of the ongoing negotiations regarding a ceasefire in Gaza, although it carries no guarantees that it could be extended to South of Lebanon.
On October 8, under the slogan of “supporting Gaza”, Hezbollah launched fire from South Lebanon towards Israel following Hamas’ initiation of “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation.
However, this “backing” turned into open confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel, which did not suffice with bombing military posts of the party, but also adopted an assassination policy targeting senior figures and widening the geographical scope of its bombardment and breaching the rules of engagement.
The Israeli war machine resumed assassinating several Hezbollah and Hamas leaders by targeting them in their cars or homes inside the Lebanese territory .
It also focused on bombing Hezbollah's infrastructure in attempts that seem to aim at cutting supply lines, including weapon depots and military centers, as repeatedly announced by Israel.
This ongoing escalation between Hezbollah and Israel leaves confrontations open to all possibilities in light of Israel’s continuous threats.
Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Galant, said after his meeting with the US envoy, Amos Hochstein, a few days ago, that the “ongoing tension with Hezbollah on the Lebanese border brings the situation closer to military escalation”.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah deputy secretary-general, Naim Qassem, believes there is a “90 percent chance that there will be no widespread war in Lebanon...we make sacrifices to prevent Lebanon from being dragged into war”, he said.
The Israeli side rejects linking any prospects for a ceasefire in Gaza to the situation in South Lebanon. But American officials have expressed their concern about Israel carrying out a ground incursion into Lebanon in the coming months."
Last week, CNN said that senior US officials expressed concern that Israel may be planning a ground incursion into Lebanon within months if diplomatic efforts fail to push the Lebanese group away from the borders with Israel.
Retired Lebanese Brigadier General Abdul Rahman Shehaitli, told Asharq Al-Awsat that an Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon was unlikely, noting that if it were to happen, it would be limited to villages near the border.
Sami Nader, director of the Middle East Institute for Strategic Affairs, told Asharq Al-Awsat that “Israel would focus more on the northern front if a ceasefire was reached in Gaza.'"
Lebanese officials emphasize the necessity of implementing UN Resolution 1701, and halting Israeli violations and hostilities. Israel on the other side, demands the evacuation of Hezbollah fighters from the border area and their retreat to a distance not less than 7 km away from its northern border, a demand rejected by Hezbollah.

 

 

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Arab World

Houthi Charges of Espionage: A Tool to Intimidate, Control the Population

Houthis demonstrate in the center of the capital Sanaa against American and British strikes on their positions. (AP)
Houthis demonstrate in the center of the capital Sanaa against American and British strikes on their positions. (AP)
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Houthi Charges of Espionage: A Tool to Intimidate, Control the Population

Houthis demonstrate in the center of the capital Sanaa against American and British strikes on their positions. (AP)
Houthis demonstrate in the center of the capital Sanaa against American and British strikes on their positions. (AP)

The Houthi militia has recently released several individuals it had abducted for celebrating Yemen’s September Revolution. However, over the past few days, it has detained hundreds of residents in its stronghold of Saada, accusing them of espionage.

The campaign coincides with the airing of alleged confessions from a purported spy cell and the abduction of a former employee of the US Embassy in Yemen.

Local sources in Saada province, approximately 242 kilometers north of Sanaa, report that the Houthis have launched a widespread campaign of arrests targeting civilians. These individuals have been taken from their homes, workplaces, and businesses under allegations of collaborating with Western nations and Israel. Families of those detained have been warned to remain silent and refrain from discussing the arrests with the media or on social media platforms.

According to the sources, more than 300 individuals, including dozens of women, have been abducted across various districts in Saada. The arrests have also targeted relatives and associates of Othman Mujalli, a member of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, who hails from the region.

The sources suggest that the Houthis are detaining women as hostages to pressure their relatives, who may either be out of the militia’s reach or living outside Houthi-controlled areas. They also appear to be using the women to coerce confessions from male relatives. Last month, the Houthis accused Hamid Mujalli, Othman Mujalli’s brother, of engaging in espionage for Arab and Western nations for nearly two decades.

In a separate incident, the Houthis abducted a former employee of the US Embassy in Sanaa from his home on Monday without providing any explanation for their actions.

Release of Detainees

The Houthis recently released Sheikh Amin Rajeh, a tribal leader from Ibb province, after detaining him for four months. Several other individuals were also freed, none of whom had been formally charged during their detention. Rajeh, a member of the General People’s Congress Party, was one of many political activists, students, workers, and public employees abducted in September for celebrating Yemen’s September 26, 1962, revolution.

One of the released individuals, a shop owner, told Asharq Al-Awsat that he was unaware of the reason for his detention. He had been abducted in November, two months after the Houthis initiated a crackdown on those commemorating the revolution.

Alleged Spy Cell

Houthi-controlled media recently broadcast confessions from what they claimed was a newly uncovered spy cell. The group linked the cell to its broader narrative of “promised conquest and sacred jihad” against the West and Israel.

According to Houthi security officials, the alleged spy cell was working to compile a “target database,” monitor sites linked to missile forces and drones, and track specific military and security locations. They also claimed the cell had been observing the residences and movements of Houthi leaders.

In response, the Houthis issued warnings to residents, forbidding them from discussing or sharing information about militia-controlled sites, facilities, or the whereabouts of their leaders.

The Houthis’ actions reflect mounting concerns over potential strikes targeting their senior leadership, similar to the recent attacks on Hezbollah figures in Lebanon. Those fears come amid ongoing tensions with Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom, following the Houthis’ assaults on international shipping lanes in the Red Sea and missile attacks on Israel.