Border War Depletes Hezbollah, Worries Israel

 A picture taken from a position by the northern Israeli border with Lebanon shows smoke billowing during Israeli bombardment in southern Lebanese territory on May 10, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions. (AFP)
A picture taken from a position by the northern Israeli border with Lebanon shows smoke billowing during Israeli bombardment in southern Lebanese territory on May 10, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions. (AFP)
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Border War Depletes Hezbollah, Worries Israel

 A picture taken from a position by the northern Israeli border with Lebanon shows smoke billowing during Israeli bombardment in southern Lebanese territory on May 10, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions. (AFP)
A picture taken from a position by the northern Israeli border with Lebanon shows smoke billowing during Israeli bombardment in southern Lebanese territory on May 10, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions. (AFP)

Hezbollah deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem acknowledged that the party had to make changes to its military approach in its war with Israel in southern Lebanon.

The conflict between the two parties erupted on October 8, a day after Hamas launched its surprise attack on Israel, sparking the war on Gaza.

Initially, Hezbollah launched attacks against Israel from southern Lebanon in “support of the resistance in Gaza.” The war has now turned into one of attrition, running along the southern border.

Israel’s attacks on the South have devastated villages and left hundreds of people dead.

Qassem said on Friday Hezbollah “has learned lessons” from the fighting, “assessed the positives and negatives” and made “necessary amendments so that it can achieve a major accomplishment.”

Figures close to Hezbollah revealed that the party has lost some 300 fighters in the war. The Health Ministry has tallied 351 deaths and 1,413 injuries.

Researcher at Information International Mohammed Chamseddeine said Hezbollah lost 350 fighters during the July 2006 war against Israel, while it has now lost some 290 members in eight months.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he added that 57 civilians have been killed in the latest war compared to 1,267 in 2006.

Several observers believe it is unfair to compare the current war to the one 2006. They say the current conflict is limited to the South and Hezbollah has said it is aimed at supporting Gaza. The 2006 conflict was an “all-out war” with Israel launching strikes across Lebanon.

In March, Hezbollah announced that it had carried out 1,194 operations against Israel since October 8 revealing that it killed and injured 2,000 Israelis.

Director of the Middle East Center for Studies and Political Research Dr. Hisham Jaber said that back in 2006, Israel realized that it could not continue with the war because it was unable to achieve its goal of “breaking Hezbollah.” So, it ended it after 33 days.

At the time, Hezbollah boasted some 6,000 professional fighters and 10,000 members. Now, the figures are much greater, and the party’s fighters have gained experience during their involvement in the war in Syria, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Israel has also raised its military capabilities and built on its past experiences.

Jaber described the conflict in the South as a war of attrition. “Hezbollah started the war and is now involved. It can no longer comply with Israeli demands and conditions because that will harm is image before its supporters and Lebanese people. So, it has no other interest than forging ahead with the war and persevering,” he explained.

“We must note, however, that the party has only revealed very little of its arsenal. The Radwan forces have not even taken action,” he went on to say.

For its part, Israel has no interest in launching a ground invasion of Lebanon, especially with the experience Hezbollah has gained in Syria, putting it at an advantage over the Israelis.



Iraq Frustrated by Iran’s Reluctance to Rein in Militias

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
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Iraq Frustrated by Iran’s Reluctance to Rein in Militias

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)

A senior government official said Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has warned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the “risks to Iraq” from the growing conflict between Israel and Iran.

The official added that Iran is using “deception” when asked to distance its allied militias from the war.

Political and government figures are increasingly worried that Iraq could be hit, after two Israeli soldiers were killed in a drone strike on the Golan Heights early Friday.

Speaking anonymously to Asharq Al-Awsat, the official said al-Sudani is taking steps to keep Iraq out of the conflict.

These efforts include ramping up “political mediation” to persuade militias not to involve Iraq. The prime minister “informed Coordination Framework leaders of the risks” and urged them to “act quickly.”

The official also warned that an attack is still possible, saying intelligence shows the Iraqi militias launched the strike from outside Iraq, using weapons that came from Iraqi territory.

Al-Sudani’s Mediation Efforts

The Iraqi premier has chosen mediators, approved by Iran, to negotiate with militias about the conflict and conditions for de-escalation. These three individuals have previously acted as mediators in past crises.

Last week, Asharq Al-Awsat reported that al-Sudani asked three key Shiite figures to intervene and prevent militias from getting involved in the war between Hezbollah and Israel, after reports surfaced that Israel had identified 35 Iraqi targets.

Sources confirmed that Ammar al-Hakim is among the mediators, along with two other influential Shiite leaders whose names haven’t been disclosed.

However, two Iraqi militias—likely the al-Nujaba Movement led by Akram al-Kaabi and Kataib Hezbollah led by Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi—have refused to cooperate and continue launching rocket attacks on Israel.

The Iraqi official admitted that some militias are “stubborn,” but stressed that al-Sudani knows Iraq is “at the center of the storm.”

He reportedly told leaders of the Coordination Framework, “Iraq cannot avoid a military strike if it happens, so we must stay out of the war to protect the country.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a Friday sermon, stated that “Iran’s allies in the region won’t back down,” increasing concerns that Iraqi militias tied to Iran will continue attacking Israel.

Iraqi sources also reported that the Coordination Framework has reviewed an “intelligence report” on dozens of Iraqi targets that Israel might strike or assassinate.

Government Efforts to Prevent Escalation

Al-Sudani has blocked the flow of Iraqi funds into conflict zones, unlike previous leaders, according to the official.

He has worked closely with the US and its Treasury Department to strictly monitor financial movements, often insisting that Iran uses official channels to claim its dues from Iraq.

The official also said global auditing firms are now helping Iraq’s central bank oversee financial transactions, shutting down all previous routes for illicit money flows.

Since the Gaza war began on October 7, 2023, the US told Iraq it pressured Israel not to strike Iraq, as long as Iraq stays out of the conflict, the official added.

The US doesn’t oppose Iraq’s stance of condemning Israel, supporting Lebanon and Palestine, and sending aid.

But it “won’t accept any financial or military support to militias.”

Regarding Iran’s role, the official said Tehran claims militias act independently, dodging responsibility for reining them in.