Western diplomats are ramping up efforts in Lebanon to prevent the region from descending into a broader conflict. Their goal is to establish a new balance in the ongoing tensions, though concerns remain about the potential for escalating violence.
This depends largely on Iran’s response to Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and Hezbollah’s expected retaliation for the killing of its military commander, Fouad Shukur, in Beirut.
These retaliations, along with possible Israeli counterattacks, could lead to prolonged unrest and a drawn-out conflict. To prevent this, Western diplomacy is focused on restoring the situation to how it was before the assassinations, according to Lebanese sources speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat.
The aim is to create space for international efforts to end the conflict in Gaza, and by extension, in southern Lebanon and the Red Sea. The diplomatic push is also seen as an attempt to prevent the conflict from spreading and igniting a wider regional war.
Hezbollah has indicated it will respond in a “strong and measured” way, stressing it won’t endanger Lebanon’s interests. Iran’s delay in responding is viewed as part of this effort to de-escalate.
Meanwhile, the US is showing serious intent to intervene, with increased military presence in the region, closer coordination with Israel, and a visit by the US Central Command chief to Tel Aviv.
Diplomatic efforts and military moves seem to have partly succeeded in preventing the situation from escalating further.
According to Dr. Hisham Jaber, head of the Middle East Studies Center for Strategic Studies, both the US and Iran are keen to avoid war—Washington doesn’t want to be dragged into a conflict ahead of the presidential elections, and Tehran doesn’t want to give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a reason to pull the US into a battle it has been avoiding for months.
Jaber told Asharq Al-Awsat that “tensions are easing each day, and the threat of retaliation is fading.”
He added that while it’s hard to predict what Iran’s response might be, it will likely be very limited to avoid provoking an unpredictable Israeli reaction.
Jaber also believes that diplomacy is working to prevent Netanyahu from pushing the region into a war that no one—neither Tehran, Washington, nor Europe—wants right now.
He noted that a conflict in Lebanon would be far more dangerous than the one in Gaza, as it could spark wider regional confrontations. Given this, Jaber is confident that any response from Iran or Hezbollah will be restrained.
Jaber, who is a retired Lebanese army brigadier general, sees the US military buildup in the region as a “show of force and a deterrent message,” signaling readiness to handle any crisis.
He believes that keeping responses measured can help avoid a dangerous cycle of escalating violence.
“Retaliation only increases tension, deepens divisions, and risks further escalation, turning the region into a prolonged and draining conflict,” Jaber explained. He stressed that the key to avoiding this is through “carefully planned responses.”
