Baghdad Fears Iranian Retaliation, Cites Iraq as Key Missile Route

Image of a drone launch from a video posted by the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” on Telegram
Image of a drone launch from a video posted by the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” on Telegram
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Baghdad Fears Iranian Retaliation, Cites Iraq as Key Missile Route

Image of a drone launch from a video posted by the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” on Telegram
Image of a drone launch from a video posted by the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” on Telegram

Politicians and analysts believe Iraq is particularly worried about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel. This is because Iraqi airspace and territory might be the main route for Iranian missiles.
While many Iraqis seem indifferent to the possibility of a war, there is a heated debate online. Some critics of Iran are dismissive of the threat, while its supporters expect a strong retaliation.
A political source close to the Coordination Framework warns that Iraq, given its location near both Iran and Israel, could be heavily affected by a conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
The source, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat under conditions of anonymity, noted that Iraq’s ability to prevent or handle the fallout from such a conflict is nearly nonexistent.
If a war breaks out, Iraqi territory will be exposed, similar to the situation in April when Iranian missiles flew over Iraq to strike Israel.
The source explained that Iranian attacks could happen in two ways: through missiles crossing Iraqi airspace or via missiles launched by Iranian-aligned factions inside Iraq.
In both cases, it would be very difficult for the Iraqi government to respond, given its lack of control over these groups.
There are also concerns that these factions might launch broader attacks on their own, even without direct orders.
Additionally, if the conflict escalates uncontrollably, Israel might target important infrastructure in Iraq directly. This includes possible threats to Basra’s ports, similar to past Israeli actions in Yemen, if Iraqi factions join the conflict on Iran's side.
Former diplomat Ghazi Faisal agrees that the Iraqi government has limited ability to avoid the fallout from a potential conflict between Iran and Israel.
Faisal told Asharq Al-Awsat that Baghdad is trying to stay neutral amid the regional tensions and conflicts, including those involving Iran.
Despite efforts to address factions responsible for past attacks, Faisal said the Iraqi government cannot control or deter armed groups linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
While the Iraqi government aims to avoid war and supports Palestinian rights, Faisal warned that Iraq’s stance could become divided if a conflict breaks out, due to the complex ties between local factions and Tehran.



Lebanon Security Source Says Hezbollah Official Targeted in Beirut Strike

Civil defense members work as Lebanese army soldiers stand guard at the site of an Israeli strike in Beirut's Basta neighbourhood, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi
Civil defense members work as Lebanese army soldiers stand guard at the site of an Israeli strike in Beirut's Basta neighbourhood, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi
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Lebanon Security Source Says Hezbollah Official Targeted in Beirut Strike

Civil defense members work as Lebanese army soldiers stand guard at the site of an Israeli strike in Beirut's Basta neighbourhood, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi
Civil defense members work as Lebanese army soldiers stand guard at the site of an Israeli strike in Beirut's Basta neighbourhood, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi

A Lebanese security source said the target of a deadly Israeli airstrike on central Beirut early Saturday was a senior Hezbollah official, adding it was unclear whether he was killed.

"The Israeli strike on Basta targeted a leading Hezbollah figure," the security official told AFP without naming the figure, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

The early morning airstrike has killed at least 15 people and injured 63, according to authorities, and had brought down an eight-storey building nearby, in the second such attack on the working-class neighbourhood of Basta in as many months.

"The strike was so strong it felt like the building was about to fall on our heads," said Samir, 60, who lives with his family in a building facing the one that was hit.

"It felt like they had targeted my house," he said, asking to be identified by only his first name because of security concerns.

There had been no evacuation warning issued by the Israeli military for the Basta area.

After the strike, Samir fled his home in the middle of the night with his wife and two children, aged 14 and just three.

On Saturday morning, dumbstruck residents watched as an excavator cleared the wreckage of the razed building and rescue efforts continued, with nearby buildings also damaged in the attack, AFP journalists reported.

The densely packed district has welcomed people displaced from traditional Hezbollah bastions in Lebanon's east, south and southern Beirut, after Israel intensified its air campaign on September 23, later sending in ground troops.

"We saw two dead people on the ground... The children started crying and their mother cried even more," Samir told AFP, reporting minor damage to his home.

Since last Sunday, four deadly Israeli strikes have hit central Beirut, including one that killed Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afif.

Residents across the city and its outskirts awoke at 0400 (0200 GMT) on Saturday to loud explosions and the smell of gunpowder in the air.

"It was the first time I've woken up screaming in terror," said Salah, a 35-year-old father of two who lives in the same street as the building that was targeted.

"Words can't express the fear that gripped me," he said.

Saturday's strikes were the second time the Basta district had been targeted since war broke out, after deadly twin strikes early in October hit the area and the Nweiri neighbourhood.

Last month's attacks killed 22 people and had targeted Hezbollah security chief Wafiq Safa, who made it out alive, a source close to the group told AFP.

Salah said his wife and children had been in the northern city of Tripoli, about 70 kilometres away (45 miles), but that he had to stay in the capital because of work.

His family had been due to return this weekend because their school reopens on Monday, but now he has decided against it following the attack.

"I miss them. Every day they ask me: 'Dad, when are we coming home?'" he said.

Lebanon's health ministry says that more than 3,650 people have been killed since October 2023, after Hezbollah initiated exchanges of fire with Israel in solidarity with its Iran-backed ally Hamas over the Gaza war.

However, most of the deaths in Lebanon have been since September this year.

Despite the trauma caused by Saturday's strike, Samir said he and his family had no choice but to return home.

"Where else would I go?" he asked.

"All my relatives and siblings have been displaced from Beirut's southern suburbs and from the south."