Hezbollah Faces a Choice: Adapt to Change or Return to Conflict

An image grab shows Hezbollah chief Naim Qasem delivering a televised speech from an undisclosed location. AFP
An image grab shows Hezbollah chief Naim Qasem delivering a televised speech from an undisclosed location. AFP
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Hezbollah Faces a Choice: Adapt to Change or Return to Conflict

An image grab shows Hezbollah chief Naim Qasem delivering a televised speech from an undisclosed location. AFP
An image grab shows Hezbollah chief Naim Qasem delivering a televised speech from an undisclosed location. AFP

In his recent speech, Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem sent several messages to both Lebanon and the wider world, suggesting that the post-war era will be different from the past.

While he declared victory over Israel, he also signaled a shift towards political engagement under the Taif Agreement, highlighting the changes facing both Hezbollah and the broader “Resistance Axis.”

However, the victory Qassem spoke of does not reflect Lebanon's reality after the war.

Former minister Rashid Derbas argued that Hezbollah may claim victory, but in truth, Lebanon—both as a state and a people—has been defeated. He noted that Qassem's remarks are mainly aimed at rallying supporters, while the Lebanese people continue to suffer.

In a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat, Derbas said that while Sheikh Naim Qassem has the right to address his supporters this way, he views the overall tone of the speech as positive.

Derbas highlighted Qassem’s decision to return to political work under the Taif Agreement, his call for a swift presidential election, and his push for cooperation with the Lebanese army.

In his speech, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General outlined the party’s future vision, including high-level coordination with the Lebanese army, continued support for Palestine, and ongoing reconstruction efforts with the Lebanese state and international partners.

He emphasized that Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon will remain politically and economically influential, with a focus on completing constitutional institutions, starting with electing a new president.

The results of the war have forced Hezbollah to reassess its approach, pushing for deeper political integration in a more pragmatic manner than before.

Derbas praised Qassem’s agreement to withdraw completely north of the Litani River, signaling a shift away from confrontation with Israel. He noted that Hezbollah has come to realize that only Lebanon and the state can protect it, not Syria, Iraq, or Iran.

Regarding Hezbollah’s “army, people, and resistance” equation, Derbas pointed out the reality of Israel's military strength, which is linked to US weapons, and emphasized the need to rely on the state for protection.

He stressed that the party must return to a more realistic approach.

The tone of Hezbollah’s rhetoric after this war is different from its stance after the 2006 July War, which was more aggressive toward political forces.

Political analyst Qassem Qasir noted that the party is now acting with greater rationality, coordinating with the Lebanese state and army to implement UN Resolution 1701.

He called on all political groups to adopt a positive and non-provocative discourse that reflects Hezbollah’s openness toward all Lebanese factions.



Hezbollah Strikes Israeli Position over Ceasefire Breaches, Israel Vows ‘Strong’ Response

Flares are fired from northern Israel over the southern Lebanese border village of Aita al-Shaab, on October 28,2023. (Photo by FADEL SENNA / AFP)
Flares are fired from northern Israel over the southern Lebanese border village of Aita al-Shaab, on October 28,2023. (Photo by FADEL SENNA / AFP)
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Hezbollah Strikes Israeli Position over Ceasefire Breaches, Israel Vows ‘Strong’ Response

Flares are fired from northern Israel over the southern Lebanese border village of Aita al-Shaab, on October 28,2023. (Photo by FADEL SENNA / AFP)
Flares are fired from northern Israel over the southern Lebanese border village of Aita al-Shaab, on October 28,2023. (Photo by FADEL SENNA / AFP)

Hezbollah said it carried out a "defensive warning strike" on an Israeli military position in the disputed Shebaa Farms area on Monday, citing repeated Israeli ceasefire violations including airstrikes and shelling in Lebanon.

The Israeli military said Hezbollah launched two missiles but caused no casualties.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Israel would respond "strongly" to the strike.

Earlier, Lebanon's state-run National News Agency (NNA) reported that Israeli forces fired two artillery shells towards the southern Lebanese town of Beit Lif in the Bint Jbeil district, while heavy machine gun fire targeted Yaroun.

No injuries were reported in either incident, NNA said, but a separate Israeli strike injured others in the town of Talousa.

Lebanese authorities also said Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon killed at least two people on Monday as the ceasefire, which follows more than a year of hostilities between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, appeared increasingly fragile.

Lebanon has accused Israel of committing at least 50 violations of the ceasefire.

The truce, which came into effect early on Nov. 27, stipulates that Israel will not carry out offensive military operations against civilian, military or other state targets in Lebanon, while Lebanon will prevent any armed groups, including Hezbollah, from carrying out operations against Israel.

Lebanon and Israel have already traded accusations of breaches, and on Monday Lebanon said the violations had turned deadly.

One person was killed in an Israeli air attack on the southern Lebanese town of Marjayoun, about 10 km (6 miles) from Israel's northern border, Lebanon's health ministry said.

Lebanon's state security said an Israeli drone strike had killed a member of its force while he was on duty in Nabatieh, 12 km from the border. State security called it a "flagrant violation" of the truce.

The Lebanese army said an Israeli drone hit an army bulldozer in northeast Lebanon near the border with Syria, wounding one soldier.

The Israeli military did not immediately respond to questions about the incidents in Marjayoun and Nabatieh.

It issued a statement saying it had attacked military vehicles operating near Hezbollah military infrastructure in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley and military vehicles near the border with Syria.

The Israeli military acknowledged that a Lebanese soldier was wounded in one of its attacks and said the incident was under review.

Lebanon's parliament speaker, Nabih Berri, an ally of Hezbollah and Beirut's main interlocutor in the ceasefire talks, said Lebanon had logged at least 54 Israeli violations so far.

In a statement issued by his office, Berri urged the committee tasked with monitoring the ceasefire to "urgently" begin work, and to "oblige" Israel to halt its violations and withdraw troops from Lebanese land.

The ceasefire deal stipulates that a monitoring mechanism hosted by the United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon and chaired by the United States would "monitor, verify and assist in ensuring enforcement" of the ceasefire.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar denied that his country had breached the accord, saying the problem lay with Hezbollah moving weapons and crossing south of the Litani river, in defiance of last week's deal.

"Israel is committed to the successful implementation of the ceasefire, but we will not accept a return to the situation as it stood on October 6, 2023. If violations occur, Israel will enforce (the pact)," he said in a statement.

Public broadcaster Kan and other Israeli media outlets reported on Monday that US envoy Amos Hochstein, who brokered the ceasefire after weeks of shuttle diplomacy, had warned Israel against alleged violations.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Monday that Israel must deal Hezbollah a "powerful blow" after he said it made a "big mistake" by firing at Israeli territory.