Lebanese Army Deploys South as Israel Withdraws from Border Villages

Civil Defense teams in Tyre are returning the bodies of those killed during the war for their final burial (Reuters)
Civil Defense teams in Tyre are returning the bodies of those killed during the war for their final burial (Reuters)
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Lebanese Army Deploys South as Israel Withdraws from Border Villages

Civil Defense teams in Tyre are returning the bodies of those killed during the war for their final burial (Reuters)
Civil Defense teams in Tyre are returning the bodies of those killed during the war for their final burial (Reuters)

Tensions remain high on Lebanon's southern border, with Israel continuing to violate the ceasefire daily. Efforts are underway, both within Lebanon and internationally, to prevent another war.

Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army is completing its deployment in the south as Israeli forces pull out of villages they had entered.

Lebanese officials are hopeful for calm and expect all parties to stick to the agreement. The monitoring committee is set to begin its work soon, with the French general arriving on Wednesday, following the American general who will lead the committee.

Their first meeting will be on Thursday, according to military sources.

As Israel began pulling out its troops and equipment from villages in southern Lebanon, Lebanon’s National News Agency reported on Tuesday that the Lebanese Army had stepped up its presence in Tyre and nearby areas to ensure security.

This marks the start of the Army’s redeployment in the south, especially in border villages.

The Lebanese Army also announced it is recruiting volunteers to strengthen its forces in the south and help implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701 after the ceasefire.

The ceasefire agreement calls for a 60-day truce, during which Israel is expected to withdraw from the southern villages. Hezbollah is required to end its armed presence south of the Litani River, where 10,000 Lebanese soldiers and UN peacekeepers (UNIFIL) will be deployed.

Tensions, however, eased on Tuesday along Lebanon's southern border after a sharp escalation between Hezbollah and Israel on Monday evening.

Nevertheless, Israeli violations continued, with over 80 breaches recorded by the Lebanese Army in the past week.

On Tuesday, Israeli shelling killed a civilian in Shebaa, with the National News Agency reporting the man was struck by a missile from an Israeli drone.

An artillery shell also hit the Marjayoun Plain, and an Israeli Merkava tank crossed into the area near the border between Deir Mimas, Burj al-Mulouk, and Kfarkila in the south, stopping 200 meters from a Lebanese Army checkpoint.

Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV reported a convoy of 15 Israeli vehicles moved from the Wazzani border area toward Wadi al-Khayam, with part of the convoy heading towards the eastern part of Khiam. This followed reports that Israeli vehicles had withdrawn from eastern Khiam on Monday.

Israel also launched airstrikes on the town of Bayt Lifa in southern Lebanon and fired machine guns at Majdal Zoun.

In response, the Israeli military said it targeted a terrorist cell in the Bekaa Valley.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned on Monday that Israel might push deeper into Lebanon and no longer differentiate between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah if the ceasefire breaks down.

Katz stated, “If the ceasefire collapses, Lebanon will have no immunity,” adding that Israel would act with greater force if the war resumes.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”