Two years after October 7, 2023 - a date that altered the trajectory of the Israeli–Palestinian and Arab–Israeli conflicts - the pivotal question still looms: Did Hamas’ “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation bring the Palestinian state closer, or did it destroy the possibility entirely?
There is no definitive answer yet, and it will take time for the fate of the desired state to be revealed. Supporters of the attack argue that it secured landmark international recognitions of Palestinian statehood and opened the door to a future state. Detractors counter that the unprecedented suffering, mass casualties, and large-scale devastation wrought by Israel’s retaliation are what compelled international recognition.
“Just a Few Years”
Even now, as Gaza’s fighting gradually subsides and the territory lies in ruins, another war is underway: the diplomatic battle over founding the Palestinian state. This new front began with sweeping Arab and global recognitions, followed by US President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war, an initiative that unexpectedly revived the question of Palestinian sovereignty.
A Palestinian official told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Confidence in establishing the Palestinian state strengthens every day. As President Mahmoud Abbas has said, we believe it is a matter of time... just a few years.” He added: “The world has grown tired of occupation and its practices; the recent recognitions were the locomotive’s initial motion.”
Last month, 158 of the UN’s 193 member states officially recognized the State of Palestine. Recognitions from the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Luxembourg, Belgium, France, and others were a direct message to Israel that the time for a Palestinian state has arrived. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded bluntly: “There will be no Palestinian state, and we will respond to the latest attempt to impose a terrorist state on us within our own land.”
Israeli Anxiety Behind the Defiance
Netanyahu’s defiance may mask deeper anxieties. In Maariv, analyst Anna Barsky observed that the recent recognitions differ from earlier ones, because they come from capitals not on the fringe of global politics, but from states allied with Washington and long connected to Israel. She described the wave of recognition as a “political earthquake” and a “soft erosion” of Israel’s diplomatic immunity.
Barsky added: “No Palestinian state exists today - there are no new flags, no new borders, no governing structures. And a state will not materialize next week - even after a high-profile recognition event at the UN under joint French–Saudi leadership. Yet the recognitions themselves mark a shift in the rules and signal to Tel Aviv that the clock has begun ticking.”
The Road to a State
Paradoxically, Trump’s plan itself opened a path, however treacherous and uncertain, toward statehood. The document seemed more concerned with governance of Gaza than outright state creation, but the identity of whoever governs Gaza postwar may determine whether statehood is viable.
The plan’s provisions, still being parsed in Ramallah and Tel Aviv, are filled with ambiguity and could be interpreted either as opportunity or trap. PA sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that while recognition is essential, Trump’s plan “sidesteps the question of Gaza’s inclusion within the Palestinian state.” They added that ongoing consultations with Arab states aim to coordinate a transition in Gaza once hostilities cease.
“In the Name of the State of Palestine”
In welcoming Trump’s outline, the Palestinian Authority deliberately issued a statement “in the name of the State of Palestine”, rather than the presidency or government, as is customary. The statement carried dual messages: first, that the PA’s goals surpass the plan itself, aiming toward a just peace based on the two-state framework; and second, that the PA is committed to reforms, pledging to hold presidential and legislative elections within a year after the war, unify security across Gaza and the West Bank, fight corruption, overhaul education, eliminate laws benefiting prisoners’ families, and establish a unified social welfare system.
A Palestinian insider told Asharq Al-Awsat: “The leadership bets on Arab momentum to launch a genuine political track, irrespective of vague plan wording or Netanyahu’s objections.”
Israel Rejects All Things Palestinian
Netanyahu has repeatedly denied agreeing to a Palestinian state, asserting that no representatives of Hamas or the PA would govern Gaza afterward. However, foreign ministers of Arab and Muslim states - including Türkiye and Indonesia - responded by jointly pledging to work toward ending the war, restoring PA control in Gaza, unifying the West Bank and Gaza, setting security frameworks acceptable to all parties, securing full Israeli withdrawal, rebuilding Gaza, and laying groundwork for a fair two-state peace.
