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Gaza Ceasefire Outlook Darkens as Israel Delays Aid and Hamas Tightens Grip

Heavy machinery removes debris from a street, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City, October 14, 2025. (Reuters)
Heavy machinery removes debris from a street, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City, October 14, 2025. (Reuters)
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Gaza Ceasefire Outlook Darkens as Israel Delays Aid and Hamas Tightens Grip

Heavy machinery removes debris from a street, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City, October 14, 2025. (Reuters)
Heavy machinery removes debris from a street, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City, October 14, 2025. (Reuters)

Israel delayed aid into Gaza and kept the enclave's border shut on Tuesday, while re-emergent Hamas fighters demonstrated their grip by executing men in the street, darkening the outlook for US President Donald Trump's plan to end the war. 

Three Israeli officials said Israel had decided to restrict aid into the shattered Gaza Strip and delay plans to open the border crossing to Egypt at least through Wednesday, because Hamas had been too slow to turn over bodies of dead hostages. The group has said locating the bodies is difficult. 

Meanwhile, Hamas has swiftly reclaimed the streets of Gaza's urban areas, following the partial withdrawal of Israeli troops last week. 

In a video circulated late on Monday, Hamas fighters dragged seven men with hands tied behind their backs into a Gaza City square, forced them to their knees and shot them from behind, as dozens of onlookers watched from nearby shopfronts. 

A Hamas source confirmed that the video was filmed on Monday and that Hamas fighters participated in the executions. Reuters was able to confirm the location by visible geographic features. 

DELAY IN HANDING OVER BODIES 

Trump has given his blessing to Hamas to reassert some control of Gaza, at least temporarily. Israeli officials, who say any final settlement must permanently disarm Hamas, have so far refrained from commenting publicly on the reemergence of the group's fighters. 

On Monday the US president proclaimed the "historic dawn of a new Middle East" to Israel's parliament, as Israel and Hamas were exchanging the last 20 living Israeli hostages in Gaza for nearly 2,000 Palestinian detainees and prisoners. 

But so far, Hamas has handed over only four coffins of dead hostages, leaving at least 23 presumed dead and one unaccounted for, still in Gaza. 

Aid trucks have yet to be permitted to enter Gaza at the full anticipated rate of hundreds per day, and plans have yet to be implemented to open the crossing to Egypt to let some Gazans out, initially to evacuate the wounded for medical treatment. 

HAMAS RETURN DEMONSTRATES HURDLES TO SETTLEMENT 

The highly public return of Hamas to control of Gaza's streets demonstrates the hurdles to progressing from the initial ceasefire - phase one of Trump's plan - to a permanent settlement that would prevent a new eruption of fighting. 

Gaza residents said Hamas fighters were increasingly visible on Tuesday, deploying along routes needed for aid deliveries. 

Palestinian security sources said dozens of people had been killed in clashes between Hamas fighters and rivals in recent days. 

Meanwhile, Israeli drone fire killed five people as they went to check on houses in a suburb east of Gaza City and an airstrike killed one person and injured another near Khan Younis, Gaza health authorities said. 

Hamas accused Israel of violating the ceasefire. The Israeli military said it had fired on people who crossed truce lines and approached its forces after ignoring calls to turn back. 

A summit co-hosted by Trump in Egypt on Monday ended with no public announcement of major progress towards establishing an international military force for Gaza, or a new governing body. 

HAMAS ASSERTS CONTROL 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently maintained that the war cannot end until Hamas gives up its weapons and ceases to control Gaza, a demand that the fighters have rejected, torpedoing all previous peace efforts. 

But Trump, having announced that the war is now over, said on Monday Hamas still had a temporary green light to keep order. 

"They do want to stop the problems, and they've been open about it, and we gave them approval for a period of time," he said. 

Hamas sources told Reuters on Tuesday the group would tolerate no more violations of order in Gaza and would target collaborators, armed looters and drug dealers. 

The group, though greatly weakened after two years of pummeling Israeli bombardment and ground incursions, has been gradually reasserting itself since the ceasefire took hold. 

It has deployed hundreds of workers to start rubble clearing on key routes needed to access damaged or destroyed housing and to repair broken water pipes. Road clearance and security provision will also be needed for increased aid delivery. 

AID AND HOSTAGES 

The ceasefire has stopped two years of devastating warfare in Gaza triggered by the October 7, 2023 attack in which Hamas-led gunmen killed around 1,200 people and seized 251 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. 

Israel's military campaign in Gaza killed nearly 68,000 people according to local health authorities, with thousands more feared dead under the rubble. Gaza's Civil Defense Service said 250 bodies had been recovered since the truce began. 

Swathes of Gaza are in ruins and the global hunger monitor said in August there was famine in the territory. Thousands of Gazans have been returning to homes since the ceasefire, many finding whole streets bombed into dust. 

UNICEF spokesperson Tess Ingram said that while aid was getting into Gaza with tents, tarpaulin sheets, winter clothes, family hygiene kits and other critical items, she hoped for a significant increase later this week. 

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Arab World

Lebanese President Meets Delegation Chief ahead of Direct Israel Talks

A woman walks past a billboard depicting Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and sentence reading in Arabic 'The decision is up to Lebanon' EPA/WAEL HAMZEH
A woman walks past a billboard depicting Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and sentence reading in Arabic 'The decision is up to Lebanon' EPA/WAEL HAMZEH
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Lebanese President Meets Delegation Chief ahead of Direct Israel Talks

A woman walks past a billboard depicting Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and sentence reading in Arabic 'The decision is up to Lebanon' EPA/WAEL HAMZEH
A woman walks past a billboard depicting Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and sentence reading in Arabic 'The decision is up to Lebanon' EPA/WAEL HAMZEH

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on Friday met with veteran diplomat Simon Karam, the head of the delegation headed to Washington for planned talks with Israel next week.

Lebanon and Israel's US ambassadors had previously met twice in Washington over the past weeks, in an attempt to end the war that started when Hezbollah drew Lebanon into the Middle East conflict on March 2.

Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi said in a statement Friday that Lebanon's goals from the negotiations were "consolidating the ceasefire, securing Israel's withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territory, and restoring the state's full sovereignty over its national territory".

Despite a truce that has been in place since April 17, Israel has repeatedly bombed Lebanon, mostly the country's south, and retained control over border areas.

In a statement from the presidency, Aoun said he and Karam discussed "preparations for the meeting scheduled for next Thursday in Washington between the Lebanese, American and Israeli delegations".

Aoun provided Karam with "directives outlining Lebanon's firm positions regarding the negotiations", the statement added.

A Lebanese official who requested anonymity told AFP that Karam "will head to Washington soon" to lead the Lebanese delegation.

The Lebanese ambassador to the US, the deputy chief of mission and a military representative will also be part of the delegation, the official added.

The ambassador-level meeting on April 14 was the first of its kind in decades, as the two countries have officially been at war since 1948.

Following the first round of talks, US President Donald Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire, with a three-week extension announced after the second round.

Trump also said he expected Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to meet jointly with him at the White House "over the next couple of weeks".

But Aoun said on Monday that "we must first reach a security agreement and stop the Israeli attacks on us before we raise the issue of a meeting between us".

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, at a news conference on Tuesday, said "there's no problem between the Lebanese government and the Israeli government" and that Hezbollah was the issue.

"By and large, I think a peace deal between Lebanon and Israel is eminently achievable and should be," Rubio said.

Hezbollah is strongly opposed to the direct talks, calling them a "sin" and urging Beirut to withdraw from them.

Israeli strikes have killed more than 2,700 in Lebanon since March 2, including dozens since the ceasefire was announced.

Arab World

Three-Member Committee Negotiates With Washington on Disarming Iraqi Factions

Popular Mobilization Forces brigades patrol. (PMF media office)
Popular Mobilization Forces brigades patrol. (PMF media office)
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Three-Member Committee Negotiates With Washington on Disarming Iraqi Factions

Popular Mobilization Forces brigades patrol. (PMF media office)
Popular Mobilization Forces brigades patrol. (PMF media office)

Asharq Al-Awsat has learned that an Iraqi committee comprising three senior figures is close to finalizing an “executive plan” to disarm armed factions, ahead of presenting it to US officials in the coming days.

As the process coincides with expected changes in the leadership of key security agencies under the incoming government, political and government officials ruled out the possibility that the plan would go beyond “buying time,” while representatives of three factions insisted they “will not surrender their weapons.”

Washington has intensified pressure on the ruling Shiite parties to disarm armed factions and prevent their representatives from participating in the new government. These pressures are expected to translate into practical measures as the formation of the next government in Baghdad approaches.

A photo released by the Coordination Framework shows, from left, Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi, Hadi al-Amiri, and Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

Negotiations on Disarmament

The committee, whose existence is being disclosed for the first time, includes Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi, outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Amiri. According to sources, the committee has held secret negotiations with militia leaders, presenting them with “ideas on how to disarm and integrate fighters,” although some meetings “did not proceed calmly.”

Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that al-Amiri’s presence, given his longstanding ties to Iran, “was supposed to help build trust with the factions and persuade them to engage with the state,” adding that the committee had been fully authorized by the Coordination Framework.

A climate of mistrust and mutual accusations prevails between Shiite party leaders and armed factions, the sources said, predicting that Zaidi’s government could face serious obstacles preventing it from implementing fundamental reforms related to weapons and financial resources that Washington says are deliberately being funneled to Iran through various channels.

Zaidi has enjoyed unprecedented support from the US administration since being formally tasked with forming a government. However, many believe the American “honeymoon” could end if no meaningful progress is made in reducing Iranian influence and severing militia ties to the Iraqi state.

A phone call last Wednesday between US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi reportedly signaled that Washington wants militia elements removed not only from senior ministerial posts, but also from positions at the level of director-general.

Sources said people close to Zaidi understood from the call with Hegseth that, from Washington’s perspective, the legitimacy of the new Baghdad government would depend on its ability to distance militias from the machinery of the state.

A senior political official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the committee had accelerated its work under mounting US pressure, noting that security advisers had been working for months on various options for disarmament or integration, but that the pace had intensified in recent weeks.

The official said the executive plan includes disarming factions of heavy and medium weapons and restructuring the Popular Mobilization Forces, without specifying how the process would be carried out.

Uncertainty continues to surround the future of the PMF in Iraq, particularly whether it will ultimately submit to US pressure and become part of the disarmament project.

Popular Mobilization Forces brigades patrol. (PMF media office)

A Plan to “Buy Time”

Iraqi politicians say General David Petraeus may visit Baghdad this week to ensure that “the new government fully severs its ties with militias.” It has not been possible to verify the official capacity Petraeus would hold during the expected visit to Baghdad.

Petraeus is considered one of the leading US commanders associated with the Iraq war after 2003. He gained extensive field and strategic experience, most notably as commander of the 101st Airborne Division during the invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

His later experience also positions him to play a role in the factions’ weapons matter. In 2004, he was tasked with training local security forces amid escalating sectarian violence and worked closely with political leaders, some of whom headed militias at the time, including Hadi al-Amiri.

Iraqi sources suggested that the “executive plan” being prepared by the committee “may offer promising ideas to convince the Americans of Zaidi’s seriousness regarding disarmament, but there are doubts over whether it will actually be implemented, and it may amount to little more than an attempt to buy time, enough to secure passage of Zaidi’s government while waiting for the Iran-US war to end.”

A prominent Shiite adviser said: “Stalling on the issue of factional weapons will end with the ruling alliance being classified as a political group supporting terrorism. For Iraq, this would mean awaiting severe economic sanctions as a rogue state.”

Zaidi’s government program consists of 14 points, headed by “restricting weapons to the hands of the state and enforcing the rule of law.” However, it also includes a clause on “developing the combat capabilities of the Popular Mobilization Forces and defining its responsibilities and role within the military structure.”

An Iraqi official told Asharq Al-Awsat that “Washington does not want to loosen its grip on Baghdad to prevent armed faction leaders and members from infiltrating the new government.”

‘We Will Not Surrender Our Weapons’

In response to the tougher US position, some armed factions are adopting a more hardline stance. A spokesperson for one faction said that Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, and Harakat al-Nujaba reject handing over their weapons to any party whatsoever.

The spokesperson, who requested anonymity, said the three factions were “prepared to pay any price resulting from their refusal to disarm.”

Sources said the armed factions do not believe they are compelled to relinquish their weapons. Instead, they view potential US consequences as unlikely to be harsher than what occurred during the previous war, including assassinations and the destruction of infrastructure.

“The war showed us how more power can be gained,” the faction spokesperson said.

Within the Coordination Framework, questions are being raised about whether Washington seeks to isolate all militias from state institutions, including those that have begun adopting rhetoric less centered on weapons and already hold seats in the Iraqi parliament.

These groups, led by Asaib Ahl al-Haq, are exploring alternative formulas for participating in the new government by reviving a model previously used during Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s administration: backing figures described as independent for ministerial positions while maintaining indirect influence over those posts.

US Treasury sanctions announced Thursday targeted figures involved in oil smuggling, including Laith al-Khazali, brother of Asaib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali, who has reportedly at times been considered for the Interior Ministry and at others for a service ministry.

The sanctions also included Ali Muaredh al-Bahadli. Informed sources said “a political faction had nominated him for the position of Iraqi oil minister.”

Politicians from the Coordination Framework said the sanctions may have been intended to “block undesirable nominations and steer the process toward other candidates.”

Although the disarmament negotiations appear in essence to be discussions about repositioning armed groups in a way that does not provoke American anger, according to one Iraqi official, that does not mean changes will not occur.

The official said the new government would witness security appointments aimed at reducing factional influence over sensitive institutions, including the intelligence service, which is likely to be headed by a Sunni figure.

Arab World

Iraq Denies US Claims Deputy Oil Minister Helped Iran Evade Sanctions

A view of the Shuaiba oil refinery southwest of Basra, Iraq. (Reuters/File Photo)
A view of the Shuaiba oil refinery southwest of Basra, Iraq. (Reuters/File Photo)
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Iraq Denies US Claims Deputy Oil Minister Helped Iran Evade Sanctions

A view of the Shuaiba oil refinery southwest of Basra, Iraq. (Reuters/File Photo)
A view of the Shuaiba oil refinery southwest of Basra, Iraq. (Reuters/File Photo)

Iraq's oil ministry has denied US accusations against its deputy minister, who the United States hit with sanctions over alleged support to Iran as Washington escalates pressure on Baghdad to break with Iranian-linked groups.

The US State Department on Thursday announced sanctions on Ali Maarij al-Bahadli, saying he "abused his government position to divert Iraqi oil in support of the Iranian regime and its terrorist proxies."

It accused him of fraudulently mixing Iraqi and Iranian oil as part of a scheme to help Iran avoid sanctions.

His ministry said late Thursday that "it denies the accusations" against Bahadli and stressed "the importance of transparency in addressing all... accusations on the basis of evidence and facts," according to the INA state news agency.

The ministry said it was prepared to investigate the matter, but added that "crude oil export operations, marketing, loading onto tankers, and related procedures" were not part of Bahadli's job.

After entities run by an Iraqi businessman were sanctioned over the same accusations last year, Iraq's state oil marketing company SOMO denied that any oil mixing operations were taking place in the country's ports or territorial waters to help Iran.

The United States has unilateral sanctions against Iranian oil, seeking to punish any country or company that buys it.